• Energy Research

AbstractIdentifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness‐related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness‐related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long‐term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February–May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness‐related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness‐related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness‐related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism via which populations can respond to changing environmental conditions, but we know very little about how natural populations vary with respect to plasticity. Here we use random-regression animal models to understand the multivariate phenotypic and genetic patterns of plasticity variation in two key life-history traits, laying date and clutch size, using data from long-term studies of great tits in The Netherlands (Hoge Veluwe [HV]) and UK (Wytham Woods [WW]). We show that, while population-level responses of laying date and clutch size to temperature were similar in the two populations, between-individual variation in plasticity differed markedly. Both populations showed significant variation in phenotypic plasticity (IxE) for laying date, but IxE was significantly higher in HV than in WW. There were no significant genotype-by-environment interactions (GxE) for laying date, yet differences in GxE were marginally nonsignificant between HV and WW. For clutch size, we only found significant IxE and GxE in WW but no significant difference between populations. From a multivariate perspective, plasticity in laying date was not correlated with plasticity in clutch size in either population. Our results suggest that generalizations about the form and cause of any response to changing environmental conditions across populations may be difficult.

AbstractFor organisms living in seasonal environments, synchronizing the peak energetic demands of reproduction with peak food availability is a key challenge. Understanding the extent to which animals can adjust behavior to optimize reproductive timing, and the cues they use to do this, is essential for predicting how they will respond to future climate change. In birds, the timing of peak energetic demand is largely determined by the timing of clutch initiation; however, considerable alterations can still occur once egg laying has begun. Here, we use a wild population of great tits (Parus major) to quantify individual variation in different aspects of incubation behavior (onset, duration, and daily intensity) and conduct a comprehensive assessment of the causes and consequences of this variation. Using a 54‐year dataset, we demonstrate that timing of hatching relative to peak prey abundance (synchrony) is a better predictor of reproductive success than clutch initiation or clutch completion timing, suggesting adjustments to reproductive timing via incubation are adaptive in this species. Using detailed in‐nest temperature recordings, we found that postlaying, birds improved their synchrony with the food peak primarily by varying the onset of incubation, with duration changes playing a lesser role. We then used a sliding time window approach to explore which spring temperature cues best predict variance in each aspect of incubation behavior. Variation in the onset of incubation correlated with mean temperatures just prior to laying; however, incubation duration could not be explained by any of our temperature variables. Daily incubation intensity varied in response to daily maximum temperatures throughout incubation, suggesting female great tits respond to temperature cues even in late stages of incubation. Our results suggest that multiple aspects of the breeding cycle influence the final timing of peak energetic demand. Such adjustments could compensate, in part, for poor initial timing, which has significant fitness impacts.

AbstractClimate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long‐term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56‐year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long‐term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.

Many related species share the same environment and utilize similar resources. This is surprising because based on the principle of competitive exclusion one would predict that the superior competitor would drive the other species to extinction; coexistence is only predicted if interspecific competition is weaker than intraspecific competition. Interspecific competition is frequently reduced by differential resource use, resulting in habitat segregation. In this paper, we use the closely related collared and pied flycatcher to assess the potential of habitat differences to affect interspecific competition through a different mechanism, namely by generating temporal differences in availability of similar food resources between the two species. We found that the tree species composition of the breeding territories of the two species differed, mainly by a higher abundance of coniferous species around nest-boxes occupied by pied flycatchers. The temporal availability of caterpillars was measured using frass traps under four deciduous and two coniferous tree species. Deciduous tree species showed an early and narrow peak in abundance, which contrasted with the steady increase in caterpillar abundance in the coniferous tree species through the season. We subsequently calculated the predicted total caterpillar biomass available in each flycatcher territory. This differed between the species, with biomass decreasing more slowly in pied flycatcher territories. Caterpillar biomass is strongly correlated with the reproductive success of collared flycatchers, but much less so with pied flycatchers. However, caterpillar availability can only partly explain the differences in seasonal decline of reproductive success between the two species; we discuss additional factors that may contribute to this species difference. Overall, our results are consistent with the suggestion that minor habitat differences between these two species may contribute to promoting their coexistence.