• Energy Research

Forecasting domestic electricity consumption is important for a wide range of modern power system solutions and smart applications that support network operation, grid stability, and demand-side management, most of which depend on robust and accurate predictions. The methods producing these predictions infer future load from statistical regularity in historical data. If such regularity is lacking, predictions then regress towards the most recently observed consumption value used in the input set. Predictions then follow the actual load data one step behind in time, potentially affecting the robustness of predictions and functionality of applications. Current evaluation methods do not detect this behaviour which may result in overconfidence in prediction results. In this study, we 1) define and systematically analyse this behaviour, which we label the Persistence Forecast Effect and illustrate its impacts, 2) propose a novel method, called 1-Step-Shifting, to detect its presence, and 3) analyse and establish the relationship between irregularity in data and the effect. Further, we provide a case study applying state-of-the-art forecasting techniques to a real-world dataset of electricity consumption data from 69 households in order to demonstrate the Persistence Forecast Effect, its implications, and its relationship to statistical regularity in historical data.

Given the growing environmental concerns and significant resource consumption associated with video streaming on electronic devices, measuring the energy consumption is important to guide optimisation and to assess its relative environmental impact. In this paper, we provide comprehensive guidance to accurately measure the energy and power consumption in video communication technologies. We address the complexities inherent in measuring energy consumption across diverse software and hardware setups, with a focus on video communication tasks. We review current measurement techniques, identify limitations in existing practices, and propose a structured methodology that incorporates considerations for static and dynamic power consumption, appropriate sampling frequencies, and statistical rigor. Additionally, we introduce a reference workflow that is adaptable to various multimedia applications and demonstrate its applicability through a case study. By offering clear guidance and practical tools, this work aims to improve the reliability, reproducibility, and comparability of energy consumption measurements in video technologies, providing a strong foundation for the multimedia community to base decisions on.