• Energy Research

Persistent multiyear drought (MYD) events pose a growing threat to nature and humans in a changing climate. We identified and inventoried global MYDs by detecting spatiotemporally contiguous climatic anomalies, showing that MYDs have become drier, hotter, and led to increasingly diminished vegetation greenness. The global terrestrial land affected by MYDs has increased at a rate of 49,279 ± 14,771 square kilometers per year from 1980 to 2018. Temperate grasslands have exhibited the greatest declines in vegetation greenness during MYDs, whereas boreal and tropical forests have had comparably minor responses. With MYDs becoming more common, this global quantitative inventory of the occurrence, severity, trend, and impact of MYDs provides an important benchmark for facilitating more effective and collaborative preparedness toward mitigation of and adaptation to such extreme events.

Significance Changes in the hydrology of high-altitude catchments may have major consequences for downstream water supply. Based on model projections with a higher spatiotemporal resolution and degree of process complexity than any previous intercontinental comparative study, we show that the impacts of climate change cannot be generalized. These impacts range from a high climatic sensitivity, decreasing runoff, and significant seasonal changes in the Central Andes of Chile to increasing future runoff, limited seasonal shifts, but increases in peak flows in the Nepalese Himalaya. This study constrains uncertainty about response times and mechanisms controlling glacier and runoff response to climate and sets a benchmark for process-based modeling of the climate change impact on the hydrology of high-altitude catchments.

CliffEBM is a model that calculates the distributed surface energy balance and backwasting (melt) rates for ice cliffs, i.e. steep ice surfaces with complex, heterogeneous topographies. The model is validated and described in Buri, P., Pellicciotti, F., Steiner, J., Miles, E., & Immerzeel, W. (2016). A grid-based model of backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers. Annals of Glaciology, 57(71), 199-211. https://doi.org/10.3189/2016AoG71A059 See most update version here: https://github.com/pburi/CliffEBM In this repository we provide example input data (digital elevation models, shapefiles, meteodata) to run CliffEBM on one supraglacial cliff on the debris-covered Lirung Glacier (Nepal). Working example: to run the model, download the entire repository on your machine and adjust the paths in the model code (CliffEBM.R, section "primary definitions") according to the paths on your machine. Software: R (R version 4.3.0 (2023-04-21 ucrt) -- "Already Tomorrow"). The model should also run on older versions. Packages: cleaRskyQuantileRegression, doParallel, foreach, grDevices, iterators, methods, parallel, raster, rgdal, rgeos, sf, sp, stats, utils, zoo This study was funded by the SNF (Swiss National Science Foundation) project UNCOMUN ("Understanding Contrasts in High Mountain Hydrology in Asia," Grant No. 146761).

AbstractThe presence of a developed boundary layer decouples a glacier's response from ambient conditions, suggesting that sensitivity to climate change is increased by glacier retreat. To test this hypothesis, we explore six years of distributed meteorological data on a small Swiss glacier in the period 2001–2022. Large glacier fragmentation has occurred since 2001 (−35% area change up to 2022) coinciding with notable frontal retreat, an observed switch from down‐glacier katabatic to up‐glacier valley winds and an increased sensitivity (ratio) of on‐glacier to off‐glacier temperature. As the glacier ceases to develop density‐driven katabatic winds, sensible heat fluxes on the glacier are increasingly determined by the conditions occurring outside the boundary layer of the glacier, sealing the glacier's demise as the climate continues to warm and experience an increased frequency of extreme summers.

Glaciers are key components of the mountain water towers of Asia and are vital for downstream domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. The glacier mass loss rate over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is among the highest in Asia and has accelerated in recent decades. This acceleration has been attributed to increased warming, but the mechanisms behind these glaciers’ high sensitivity to warming remain unclear, while the influence of changes in precipitation over the past decades is poorly quantified. Here, we reconstruct glacier mass changes and catchment runoff since 1975 at a benchmark glacier, Parlung No. 4, to shed light on the drivers of recent mass losses for the monsoonal, spring-accumulation glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau. Our modeling demonstrates how a temperature increase (mean of 0.39∘C ⋅dec−1since 1990) has accelerated mass loss rates by altering both the ablation and accumulation regimes in a complex manner. The majority of the post-2000 mass loss occurred during the monsoon months, caused by simultaneous decreases in the solid precipitation ratio (from 0.70 to 0.56) and precipitation amount (–10%), leading to reduced monsoon accumulation (–26%). Higher solid precipitation in spring (+18%) during the last two decades was increasingly important in mitigating glacier mass loss by providing mass to the glacier and protecting it from melting in the early monsoon. With bare ice exposed to warmer temperatures for longer periods, icemelt and catchment discharge have unsustainably intensified since the start of the 21st century, raising concerns for long-term water supply and hazard occurrence in the region.

AbstractRunoff from glacierised Andean river basins is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. By running a high-resolution climate model over the two most glacierised regions of Peru we unravel past climatic trends in precipitation and temperature. Future changes are determined from an ensemble of statistically downscaled global climate models. Projections under the high emissions scenario suggest substantial increases in temperature of 3.6 °C and 4.1 °C in the two regions, accompanied by a 12% precipitation increase by the late 21st century. Crucially, significant increases in precipitation extremes (around 75% for total precipitation on very wet days) occur together with an intensification of meteorological droughts caused by increased evapotranspiration. Despite higher precipitation, glacier mass losses are enhanced under both the highest emission and stabilization emission scenarios. Our modelling provides a new projection of combined and contrasting risks, in a region already experiencing rapid environmental change.