• Energy Research

Abstract This paper examines the endogenous evolution of household consumption patterns and household carbon emissions (HCEs) by integrating the analysis methods of income distribution with climate change. Based on a large-scale household survey spanning from 2012 to 2016 in China, we estimated the direct and indirect HCEs, observed inverse U-shaped Carbon Kuznets Curves (CKC) and significant changes in HCEs over the period at the household level. Applying the Oaxaca-Blinder method, we decomposed factors causing the changes in HCEs and found that income and demographic effects contribute only 25.1% to the total increase of HCEs. The other 74.9% remain unexplained and we define them as the effect of intertemporal lifestyle changes. Further analysis from multiple perspectives illustrates that the lifestyles of households across various social strata are becoming increasingly higher carbon-intensive over time even though the income remains unchanged. The findings indicate that existing modeling and projections of carbon emissions based on income and household characteristics may underestimate the future emissions pressure from the household sector. Hence, we conclude that in order to reach more meaningful results, the increasing effect of lifestyles should be taken into account when conducting climate change studies and formulating climate policies.

AbstractThis study examines the nature and consequences of China's rise to the center of world economic affairs through manufacturing‐led development. Our historical analysis shows that China is still well short of the point in its developmental process where its growth might be reasonably expected to slow, or the energy, resource and carbon intensity of growth to recede. The study argues that the current trajectory of industrialization will have to be altered when China becomes more actively engaged in dealing with structural issues at home and abroad against the background of the unwinding of global imbalances. One profitable strategy that China might employ would be to approximate the incredibly fruitful mass‐market integration efforts of the USA that eventually elevated it to its position of global primacy. The cyclical re‐emergence of excess capacity in Chinese heavy industry, serious questions about the medium term ability of other major regions to accommodate further large gains in Chinese market share, and the stark conflict between the contemporary style of industrial development and the health of the biosphere indicate strongly that now is the time to catalyze the required adjustment and reform processes that will underpin sustainable long‐run prosperity.

The mainland of China’s rapid pace of industrialization and trade expansion have led many to ask whether its ever-increasing demand for resources can be met without disruption to economic stability and growth in the country and the world as a whole. The article examines the experience of growth in resource demand and the associated pressure on global markets from Japan, Taiwan Province of China and Korea during their periods of sustained, rapid economic growth for periods in the second half of the twentieth century. It seeks to draw lessons for the twenty-first century. The article points out that because of its size the mainland of China may cause the resources boom, associated with the later decades of its period of sustained rapid growth, to raise the prices of resource-intensive products by a large amount, not for a few years, but for several decades. This will have important implications for economic development and the distribution of incomes within and between all countries, and on power relations between states in the Asia-Pacific and throughout the global community.

Relever le défi de la restructuration intérieure pour soutenir la croissance, affirmer le droit de se développer et de ne pas être pénalisé simplement parce qu'il est grand, tout en assumant une responsabilité accrue pour l'équilibre mondial, la stabilité et la gouvernance et en représentant les intérêts des pays en développement moins puissants sont de nouvelles montagnes majeures à gravir. Le succès ou l'échec de la Chine aura, en tout état de cause, un impact significatif sur le reste du monde. Cumplir con el desafío de la reestructuración nacional para sostener el crecimiento, afirmar el derecho a desarrollarse y no ser penalizado únicamente por ser grande, mientras se asume una mayor responsabilidad por el equilibrio, la estabilidad y la gobernanza globales y se representan los intereses de los países en desarrollo menos poderosos son nuevas montañas importantes que escalar. El éxito o el fracaso de China, en cualquier caso, tendrá un impacto significativo en el resto del mundo. Meeting the challenge of the domestic restructuring to sustain growth, asserting the right to develop and not to be penalized purely for being large, while taking on increased responsibility for global balance, stability, and governance and representing the interests of less-powerful developing countries are major new mountains to climb.China's success or failure will, in any event, have a significant impact on the rest of the world. إن مواجهة التحدي المتمثل في إعادة الهيكلة المحلية للحفاظ على النمو، والتأكيد على الحق في التنمية وعدم معاقبته لمجرد كونه كبيرًا، مع تحمل مسؤولية متزايدة عن التوازن والاستقرار والحكم العالميين وتمثيل مصالح البلدان النامية الأقل قوة، هي جبال جديدة رئيسية يجب تسلقها. سيكون لنجاح الصين أو فشلها، على أي حال، تأثير كبير على بقية العالم.