• Energy Research

Climate change driven alterations in the distribution and abundance of marine species, and the timing of their life history events (phenology), are being reported around the globe. However, we have limited capacity to detect and predict these responses, even for comparatively well studied commercial fishery species. Fisheries provide significant socio-economic benefits for many coastal communities, and early warning of potential changes to fish stocks will provide managers and other stakeholders with the best opportunity to adapt to these impacts. Rapid assessment methods that can estimate the sensitivity of species to climate change in a wide range of contexts are needed. This study establishes an objective, flexible and cost effective framework for prioritising future ecological research and subsequent investment in adaptation responses in the face of resource constraints. We build on an ecological risk assessment framework to assess relative sensitivities of commercial species to climate change drivers, specifically in relation to their distribution, abundance and phenology, and demonstrate our approach using key species within the fast warming region of south-eastern Australia. Our approach has enabled fisheries managers to understand likely changes to fisheries under a range of climate change scenarios, highlighted critical research gaps and priorities, and assisted marine industries to identify adaptation strategies that maximise positive outcomes.

AbstractReconciling food security, economic development and biodiversity conservation is a key challenge, especially in the face of the demographic transition characterizing many countries in the world. Fisheries and marine ecosystems constitute a difficult application of this bio‐economic challenge. Many experts and scientists advocate an ecosystem approach to manage marine socio‐ecosystems for their sustainability and resilience. However, the ways by which to operationalize ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) remain poorly specified. We propose a specific methodological framework—viability modelling—to do so. We show how viability modelling can be applied using four contrasted case‐studies: two small‐scale fisheries in South America and Pacific and two larger‐scale fisheries in Europe and Australia. The four fisheries are analysed using the same modelling framework, structured around a set of common methods, indicators and scenarios. The calibrated models are dynamic, multispecies and multifleet and account for various sources of uncertainty. A multicriteria evaluation is used to assess the scenarios’ outcomes over a long time horizon with different constraints based on ecological, social and economic reference points. Results show to what extent the bio‐economic and ecosystem risks associated with the adoption of status quo strategies are relatively high and challenge the implementation ofEBFM. In contrast, strategies called ecoviability or co‐viability strategies, that aim at satisfying the viability constraints, reduce significantly these ecological and economic risks and promoteEBFM. The gains associated with those ecoviability strategies, however, decrease with the intensity of regulations imposed on these fisheries.

Climate change is not being felt equally around the world. Regions where warming is most rapid will be among those to experience impacts first, will need to develop early responses to these impacts and can provide a guide for management elsewhere. We describe the research history in one such global marine hotspot—south-east Australia—where a number of contentions about the value of hotspots as natural laboratories have been supported, including (1) early reporting of changes (2) early documentation of impacts, and (3) earlier development and promotion of adaptation options. We illustrate a transition from single discipline impacts-focused research to an inter-disciplinary systems view of adaptation research. This transition occurred against a background of change in the political position around climate change and was facilitated by four preconditioning factors. These were: (1) early observations of rapid oceanic change that coincided with (2) biological change which together provided a focus for action, (3) the strong marine orientation and history of management in the region, and (4) the presence of well developed networks. Three case studies collectively show the critical role of inter-disciplinary engagement and stakeholder participation in supporting industry and government adaptation planning.

World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we considered the efficacy of risk perception as a tool to inform how to communicate the science of climate change and suggestions for management in relation to development of adaptation strategies for fisheries. Fishers surveyed in this study operate in a fishery that is expected to undergo large changes as a consequence of climate change. Fishers also reported observations of similar large changes in the marine environment and lobster fishery consistent with climate change; yet most fishers surveyed expressed doubts about whether climate change was a real process. The important point for adaption of the industry to climate change is that fisher perceptions of risk tended to create barriers to acceptance of climate change as an issue. This means that there is a barrier to communication and awareness about climate change and thus a barrier to future action on the issue. Improving acceptance of climate change and thus ability to adapt will require the development of communications that are culturally appropriate and palatable to fishers. We argue that the application of social learning principles in communications about climate change may be one constructive way forward.

A qualitative screening-level risk assessment was developed to evaluate relative lev- els of risk from climate change to aquaculture industries. The assessment was applied to 7 major industries in the temperate south-east region of Australia and involved a simple, transparent and repeatable methodology that was appropriate for a range of different aquaculture systems and taxa. Two key stages were involved: the development of comprehensive expertise-based litera- ture reviews or 'species profiles' and a scoring assessment, with the latter providing a defined framework within which industries could be ranked (from high to low risk). In addition to inform- ing the second stage of the risk assessment process, the species' profiles also highlighted impor- tant climate change drivers and key information uncertainties and knowledge gaps. There was good resolution among the scoring assessments, with only 2 industries receiving the same risk score. The results indicated that oysters farmed from wild spat (Sydney rock oysters Saccostrea glomerata) were at most risk to climate change, with warm temperate hatchery-based finfish spe- cies (yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi) being the least at risk. This study provides critical guid- ance for scientists, resource managers and stakeholders for future research, both in addressing key knowledge gaps and focussing the development of more detailed risk analyses for high risk aquaculture industries in south-east Australia.

Climate change will impact on ecological, social, and economic elements of fisheries; however, the three are seldom considered in an integrated fashion. We develop a fishery-level assessment of economic resilience to climate change for the Tasmanian rock lobster fishery, a linked social–ecological system. We outline the main climate change forcing influences that link climate change to the fishery via changes in lobster abundance, distribution, and phenology. Using a bottom-up approach, we identify twelve economic attributes strongly related to the fisheries’ economic resilience to climate change. Resilience attributes are grouped according to the level of the economic domain (business, sectoral, and governance). Attributes are then evaluated to determine the overall economic resilience of the rock lobster fishery in the context of the specific nature of predicted climate change effects. We identify areas of low resilience in the economic sub-system for this fishery. Evaluating the economic resilience of regional fisheries using this integrated, interdisciplinary framework provides a practical, parsimonious, and conceptually sound basis for undertaking comprehensive and contextually tailored assessments of climate change impacts and economic vulnerability. The framework can be extended to include a broader range of climate change impacts and the social domain of the human sub-system.

Consequences of shifting species distributions Climate change is causing geographical redistribution of plant and animal species globally. These distributional shifts are leading to new ecosystems and ecological communities, changes that will affect human society. Pecl et al. review these current and future impacts and assess their implications for sustainable development goals. Science , this issue p. eaai9214