• Energy Research

The development process at the site or building scale is a multiobjective process requiring the cooperation of many professions and other stakeholders. The addition of multiple sustainability objectives, often seemingly unrelated (economic versus environmental versus social) in a rapidly changing global urban context, further constrains and complicates the process. The MODESTT mapping approach was developed to elucidate the interdependencies, tensions, and trade-offs between different sustainability objectives for a given development, and to make explicit the points at which a single design decision may ‘lock-in’ or ‘lock-out’ various possible outcomes. In this article, we review and analyse existing models of the development process, illustrate the decisions and activities inherent in delivering a single element of a development (illustrated in this paper with the example of a roof); then apply the MODESTT analysis to three sustainability objectives. The analysis makes explicit the critical importance of sequencing of actions and decisions, and interdependencies between specific objectives that lead to tensions and trade-offs between the multiple sustainability objectives. We conclude by making recommendations for the generic application of the MODESTT approach to improve sustainability throughout the site development process. Regardless of the tools that are available in the UK or elsewhere for the development process and for sustainability proxies, it is the timing and sequencing of decisions (when data are collected or the tools are applied) that are important in delivering effective solutions.

The development process at the site or building scale is a multiobjective process requiring the cooperation of many professions and other stakeholders. The addition of multiple sustainability objectives, often seemingly unrelated (economic versus environmental versus social) in a rapidly changing global urban context, further constrains and complicates the process. The MODESTT mapping approach was developed to elucidate the interdependencies, tensions, and trade-offs between different sustainability objectives for a given development, and to make explicit the points at which a single design decision may ‘lock-in’ or ‘lock-out’ various possible outcomes. In this article, we review and analyse existing models of the development process, illustrate the decisions and activities inherent in delivering a single element of a development (illustrated in this paper with the example of a roof); then apply the MODESTT analysis to three sustainability objectives. The analysis makes explicit the critical importance of sequencing of actions and decisions, and interdependencies between specific objectives that lead to tensions and trade-offs between the multiple sustainability objectives. We conclude by making recommendations for the generic application of the MODESTT approach to improve sustainability throughout the site development process. Regardless of the tools that are available in the UK or elsewhere for the development process and for sustainability proxies, it is the timing and sequencing of decisions (when data are collected or the tools are applied) that are important in delivering effective solutions.

AbstractEnergy is a critical input for production industries. As production becomes increasingly fragmented the management of inputs along the supply chain is a significant factor to stability and the competitiveness of the individual firm and the wider chain. Sustainable supply systems will require changes in how energy is managed particularly to ensure energy security. Rising and increasingly volatile industrial prices create technical price risks to individual firms and the supply chains they are within. A comparison is made between the management of metal and energy price volatility in the intermediate metal processing industry (IMP) in the West Midlands, UK. Results indicate significant variance between the management of price risks from the inputs due to the structure of the supply market, the political-economic context of energy as a carbon source and industrial conventions within the sector. Interdependence between economic actors in the demand-side supply chain can generate risk to the competitiveness of the firm and supply chain from the ability to transfer, or share, price changes in energy inputs through the supply chain. This is an important aspect of energy security in demand-side chains that threatens the sustainability of industrial activity.

AbstractEnergy is a critical input for production industries. As production becomes increasingly fragmented the management of inputs along the supply chain is a significant factor to stability and the competitiveness of the individual firm and the wider chain. Sustainable supply systems will require changes in how energy is managed particularly to ensure energy security. Rising and increasingly volatile industrial prices create technical price risks to individual firms and the supply chains they are within. A comparison is made between the management of metal and energy price volatility in the intermediate metal processing industry (IMP) in the West Midlands, UK. Results indicate significant variance between the management of price risks from the inputs due to the structure of the supply market, the political-economic context of energy as a carbon source and industrial conventions within the sector. Interdependence between economic actors in the demand-side supply chain can generate risk to the competitiveness of the firm and supply chain from the ability to transfer, or share, price changes in energy inputs through the supply chain. This is an important aspect of energy security in demand-side chains that threatens the sustainability of industrial activity.

Taking holistic actions to improve urban air quality is central to reducing the health risks associated with urbanisation, yet local evidence-based and institutional frameworks to achieve this are still challenging especially in many low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper develops and applies an integrated systemic approach to explore the state of air quality management in Nairobi, Kenya; as an LMIC exemplar city. The urban diagnostics approach developed assesses current particulate matter air pollution in Nairobi; quantifies anthropogenic emissions for the years 2015 and 2020 and projects scenarios of impacts of actions and inactions to 2030. This was combined with a review of grey literature on air quality policies, urban development and interviews with key stakeholders. The analysis suggests that commendable progress has been made to improve air quality in Nairobi but continuing hazardous levels of air pollution still require concerted policy efforts. Data available for numerical simulations have low spatial resolution and are generated from global emission inventories that can miss or misrepresent local emission sources. The current air quality data gap that needs to be addressed are highlighted. Strong political support is required to ensure that current air quality improvement approaches are evidence based to achieve long-term sustainability goals.

Taking holistic actions to improve urban air quality is central to reducing the health risks associated with urbanisation, yet local evidence-based and institutional frameworks to achieve this are still challenging especially in many low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). This paper develops and applies an integrated systemic approach to explore the state of air quality management in Nairobi, Kenya; as an LMIC exemplar city. The urban diagnostics approach developed assesses current particulate matter air pollution in Nairobi; quantifies anthropogenic emissions for the years 2015 and 2020 and projects scenarios of impacts of actions and inactions to 2030. This was combined with a review of grey literature on air quality policies, urban development and interviews with key stakeholders. The analysis suggests that commendable progress has been made to improve air quality in Nairobi but continuing hazardous levels of air pollution still require concerted policy efforts. Data available for numerical simulations have low spatial resolution and are generated from global emission inventories that can miss or misrepresent local emission sources. The current air quality data gap that needs to be addressed are highlighted. Strong political support is required to ensure that current air quality improvement approaches are evidence based to achieve long-term sustainability goals.

Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.