• Energy Research

In line with the critical comments formulated in relation to the S-shape global solar radiation estimation method, the original formula was improved via a 5-step procedure. The improved method was compared to four-reference methods on a large North-American database. According to the investigated error indicators, the final 7-parameter S-shape method has the same or even better estimation efficiency than the original formula. The improved formula is able to provide radiation estimates with a particularly low error pattern index () which is especially important concerning the usability of the estimated radiation values in crop models. Using site-specific calibration, the radiation estimates of the improved S-shape method caused an average of () relative error in the calculated biomass. Using only readily available site specific metadata the radiation estimates caused less than 5% relative error in the crop model calculations when they were used for locations in the middle, plain territories of the USA.

We aim to predict Hungarian corn yields for the period of 2020–2100. The purpose of the study was to mutually consider the environmental impact of climate change and the potential human impact indicators towards sustaining corn yield development in the future. Panel data regression methods were elaborated on historic observations (1970–2018) to impose statistical inferences with simulated weather events (2020–2100) and to consider developing human impact for sustainable intensification. The within-between random effect model was performed with three generic specifications to address time constant indicators as well. Our analysis on a gridded Hungarian database confirms that rising temperature and decreasing precipitation will negatively affect corn yields unless human impact dissolves the climate-induced challenges. We addressed the effect of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) as an important factor of diverse human impact. By superposing the human impact on the projected future yields, we confirm that the negative prospects of climate change can be defeated.

AbstractUnderstanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

AbstractThe superior agronomic and human nutritional properties of grain legumes (pulses) make them an ideal foundation for future sustainable agriculture. Legume‐based farming is particularly important in Africa, where small‐scale agricultural systems dominate the food production landscape. Legumes provide an inexpensive source of protein and nutrients to African households as well as natural fertilization for the soil. Although the consumption of traditionally grown legumes has started to decline, the production of soybeans (Glycine max Merr.) is spreading fast, especially across southern Africa. Predictions of future land‐use allocation and production show that the soybean is poised to dominate future production across Africa. Land use models project an expansion of harvest area, whereas crop models project possible yield increases. Moreover, a seed change in farming strategy is underway. This is being driven largely by the combined cash crop value of products such as oils and the high nutritional benefits of soybean as an animal feed. Intensification of soybean production has the potential to reduce the dependence of Africa on soybean imports. However, a successful “soybean bonanza” across Africa necessitates an intensive research, development, extension, and policy agenda to ensure that soybean genetic improvements and production technology meet future demands for sustainable production.

The Nitrates Directive aims (a) to protect water quality across Europe from nitrates originating from agricultural sources that pollute ground and surface water, and (b) to promote good farming practices. One of the most controversial measures of the directive is the winter prohibition period of fertilization, which has been extended by a month in two steps in recent years. According to the regulation, it is forbidden to apply nitrogen fertilization in Hungary between 31st October and 15th February, even though the winter climate is gradually becoming milder. Using the fertilization data of nearly half a million parcels of land in the Hungarian Nitrate Database, a crop model-based spatial analysis was carried out. Our aim was to test if a shift in the prohibition period starting date from 31st October to 30th November caused any differences in the nitrate amount leached at a 90 cm depth. Detailed nitrate inputs and soil and weather databases were coupled with the 4M crop model. The yield, plant nitrogen uptake, and nitrate leaching under five major crops were simulated, covering a considerable portion of arable land. Shifting the prohibition period starting date did not result in significant changes in the nitrate leaching. Further runs of the 4M model with different weather scenarios are needed to decide whether the modification of the prohibition period significantly affects the amount of nitrate leached.