• Energy Research

AbstractClimate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change.

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

The carbon sink potential of peatlands depends on the balance of carbon uptake by plants and microbial decomposition. The rates of both these processes will increase with warming but it remains unclear which will dominate the global peatland response. Here we examine the global relationship between peatland carbon accumulation rates during the last millennium and planetary-scale climate space. A positive relationship is found between carbon accumulation and cumulative photosynthetically active radiation during the growing season for mid- to high-latitude peatlands in both hemispheres. However, this relationship reverses at lower latitudes, suggesting that carbon accumulation is lower under the warmest climate regimes. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios indicate that the present-day global sink will increase slightly until around AD 2100 but decline thereafter. Peatlands will remain a carbon sink in the future, but their response to warming switches from a negative to a positive climate feedback (decreased carbon sink with warming) at the end of the twenty-first century.

A palynological study based on two 100-m long cores from Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran provides a vegetation record spanning 200 ka, the longest pollen record for the continental interior of the Near East. During both penultimate and last glaciations, a steppe ofArtemisiaand Poaceae dominated the upland vegetation with a high proportion of Chenopodiaceae in both upland and lowland saline ecosystems. WhileJuniperusand deciduousQuercustrees were extremely rare and restricted to some refugia,Hippophaë rhamnoidesconstituted an important phanerophyte, particularly during the late last glacial period. A pronounced expansion inEphedrashrub-steppe occurred at the end of the penultimate late-glacial period but was followed by extreme aridity that favoured anArtemisiasteppe. Very high lake levels, registered by both pollen and sedimentary markers, occurred during the middle of the last glaciation and late part of the penultimate glaciation. The late-glacial to early Holocene transition is represented by a succession ofHippophaë,Ephedra,Betula,Pistaciaand finallyJuniperusandQuercus. The last interglacial period (Eemian), slightly warmer and moister than the Holocene, was followed by two interstadial phases similar in pattern to those recorded in the marine isotope record and southern European pollen sequences.