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Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal , Conference object 04 Nov 2019 Netherlands, France, Germany, France Publisher:The Royal SocietyJournal:Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, volume 374, page 20,190,218 (issn: 0962-8436, eissn: 1471-2970,

Authors: Kevin D. Burke; John W. Williams; Simon Brewer; Walter Finsinger; Thomas Giesecke; David J. Lorenz; Alejandro Ordonez;

doi: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0218

pmid: 31679485

pmc: PMC6863489

handle: 1874/394170

Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America

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Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

Countries

Netherlands, France, Germany, France

Related Organizations

University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh
United States
Laboratoire Parole et Langage
France
The Royal Society of London
United Kingdom
University of Utah
United States
Royal Society

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Keywords

palaeontology Keywords: climate change, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, Climate, Novel ecosystem, Biochemistry, novel climate, [SDV.SA.SF]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, Taverne, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, ecology [Subject Areas], [SDV.BIBS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM], Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all), Fossils, forestry, Subject Areas: ecology, Biodiversity, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, [SDV.BIBS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM], [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Europe, climate change, pollen, Pollen, [SDV.SA.SF] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Silviculture, forestry, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, environment, Climate analogue, climate change [palaeontology Keywords], [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate Change, General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology, environmental science, 333, [SDV.BV.BOT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, climate analogue, Novel climate, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Plant Dispersal, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, North America, novel ecosystem, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	23
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Average
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%