• Energy Research

The role of positive interactions in structuring plant and animal communities is increasingly recognized, but the generality of current theoretical models has remained practically unexplored in animal communities. The stress gradient hypothesis predicts a linear increase in the intensity of facilitation as environmental conditions become increasingly stressful, whereas other theoretical models predict a maximum at intermediate environmental stress. We tested how competition and facilitation between herbivores change over a manipulated gradient of nutrient availability. We studied the effect of grazing by pond snails (Lymnaea stagnalis L.) as bulk grazers on aquatic caterpillars (Acentria ephemerella Denis and Schiffermüller) as small specialist grazers along an experimental gradient of environmental nutrient concentration. Higher nutrient levels increased overall total plant biomass but induced a shift toward dominance of filamentous algae at the expense of macrophytes. Facilitation of caterpillars by snail presence peaked at intermediate nutrient levels. Both caterpillar biomass and caterpillar grazing on macrophytes were highest at intermediate nutrient levels. Snails facilitated caterpillars possibly by removing filamentous algae and increasing access to the macrophyte resource, whereas they did not affect macrophyte biomass or C : nutrient ratios, a measure of food quality. We conclude that competition and facilitation in herbivore communities change along nutrient availability gradients that affect plant biomass and community composition. Understanding how interspecific interactions may change in strength and direction along environmental gradients is important to predict how the diversity and structure of communities may respond to the introduction or removal of herbivore species in ecosystems.

AbstractAnalyses of the effects of extreme climate periods have been used as a tool to predict ecosystem functioning and processes in a warmer world. The winter half‐year 2006/2007 (w06/07) has been extremely warm and was estimated to be a half‐a‐millennium event in central Europe. Here we analyse the consequences of w06/07 for the temperatures, mixing dynamics, phenologies and population developments of algae and daphnids (thereafter w06/07 limnology) in a deep central European lake and investigate to what extent analysis of w06/07 limnology can really be used as a predictive tool regarding future warming. Different approaches were used to put the observations during w06/07 into context: (1) a comparison of w06/07 limnology with long‐term data, (2) a comparison of w06/07 limnology with that of the preceding year, and (3) modelling of temperature and mixing dynamics using numerical experiments. These analyses revealed that w06/07 limnology in Lake Constance was indeed very special as the lake did not mix below 60 m depth throughout winter. Because of this, anomalies of variables associated strongly with mixing behaviour, e.g., Schmidt stability and a measure for phosphorus upward mixing during winter exceeded several standard deviations the long‐term mean of these variables. However, our modelling results suggest that this extreme hydrodynamical behaviour was only partially due to w06/07 meteorology per se, but depended also strongly on the large difference in air temperature to the previous cold winter which resulted in complete mixing and considerable cooling of the water column. Furthermore, modelling results demonstrated that with respect to absolute water temperatures, the model ‘w06/07’ most likely underestimates the increase in water temperature in a warmer world as one warm winter is not sufficient to rise water temperatures in a deep lake up to those expected under a future climate.

AbstractDespite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change‐point analysis and a sequential t‐test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

AbstractPeople extensively use lakes and rivers covered by seasonal ice. Although ice cover duration has been declining over the past 150 years for Northern Hemisphere freshwaters, we know relatively little about how ice loss directly affects humans. Here, we synthesize the cultural ecosystem services (i.e., services that provide intangible or nonmaterial benefits) and associated benefits supported by inland ice. We also provide, for the first time, empirical examples that give quantitative evidence for a winter warming effect on a wide range of ice‐related cultural ecosystem services and benefits. We show that in recent decades, warmer air temperatures delayed the opening date of winter ice roads and led to cancellations of spiritual ceremonies, outdoor ice skating races, and ice fishing tournaments. Additionally, our synthesis effort suggests unexploited data sets that allow for the use of integrative approaches to evaluate the interplay between inland ice loss and society.

AbstractThe intensity and frequency of storms are projected to increase in many regions of the world because of climate change. Storms can alter environmental conditions in many ecosystems. In lakes and reservoirs, storms can reduce epilimnetic temperatures from wind‐induced mixing with colder hypolimnetic waters, direct precipitation to the lake's surface, and watershed runoff. We analyzed 18 long‐term and high‐frequency lake datasets from 11 countries to assess the magnitude of wind‐ vs. rainstorm‐induced changes in epilimnetic temperature. We found small day‐to‐day epilimnetic temperature decreases in response to strong wind and heavy rain during stratified conditions. Day‐to‐day epilimnetic temperature decreased, on average, by 0.28°C during the strongest windstorms (storm mean daily wind speed among lakes: 6.7 ± 2.7 m s−1, 1 SD) and by 0.15°C after the heaviest rainstorms (storm mean daily rainfall: 21.3 ± 9.0 mm). The largest decreases in epilimnetic temperature were observed ≥2 d after sustained strong wind or heavy rain (top 5th percentile of wind and rain events for each lake) in shallow and medium‐depth lakes. The smallest decreases occurred in deep lakes. Epilimnetic temperature change from windstorms, but not rainstorms, was negatively correlated with maximum lake depth. However, even the largest storm‐induced mean epilimnetic temperature decreases were typically <2°C. Day‐to‐day temperature change, in the absence of storms, often exceeded storm‐induced temperature changes. Because storm‐induced temperature changes to lake surface waters were minimal, changes in other limnological variables (e.g., nutrient concentrations or light) from storms may have larger impacts on biological communities than temperature changes.