• Energy Research

Abstract. Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013). Global carbon budget 2013

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCC.NorESM2-MM.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-MM (medium atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (1 degree resolution; 288 x 192; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 100 km, atmos: 100 km, atmosChem: 100 km, land: 100 km, landIce: 100 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.NCC.NorESM2-LM.esm-hist' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-LM (low atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.PMIP.NCC.NorESM1-F' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM1-F (a fast version of NorESM that is designed for paleo and multi-ensemble simulations) climate model, released in 2018, includes the following components: atmos: CAM4 (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), land: CLM4, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC5.1, seaIce: CICE4. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.NCC.NorESM2-LM.ssp585' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The NorESM2-LM (low atmosphere-medium ocean resolution, GHG concentration driven) climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: OsloAero, atmos: CAM-OSLO (2 degree resolution; 144 x 96; 32 levels; top level 3 mb), atmosChem: OsloChemSimp, land: CLM, landIce: CISM, ocean: MICOM (1 degree resolution; 360 x 384; 70 levels; top grid cell minimum 0-2.5 m [native model uses hybrid density and generic upper-layer coordinate interpolated to z-level for contributed data]), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC, seaIce: CICE. The model was run by the NorESM Climate modeling Consortium consisting of CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo 0349), MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo 0313), NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen 5006), NILU (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller 2027), UiB (University of Bergen, Bergen 5007), UiO (University of Oslo, Oslo 0313) and UNI (Uni Research, Bergen 5008), Norway. Mailing address: NCC, c/o MET-Norway, Henrik Mohns plass 1, Oslo 0313, Norway (NCC) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, landIce: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.