• Energy Research

This dataset contains the parameterization of a no-policy baseline scenario of the global 11-regional MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model. Regions, time periods, commodities, technologies and relations included in this model are described in a separate repository. The dataset relies on the MESSAGEix modeling framework (Huppmann et al. 2019) and can be imported into MESSAGEix via the read_excel() functionality for which a tutorial is available. After the import the scenario can be solved and modified to create new scenarios. Note that the published scenario as included in the ENGAGE global scenarios dataset has been run with a release candidate of version 3.4.0 of MESSAGEix.

AbstractLand‐based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land‐based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom‐up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost‐effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land‐based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost‐effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost‐effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost‐effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand‐side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand‐side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co‐benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio‐cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land‐based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near‐term, low‐cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land‐based measures available, their potential co‐benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country‐specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

Impact assessments for agriculture are partly based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives, and to explore future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. SUPREMA (SUpport for Policy RElevant Modelling of Agriculture) is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (under grant agreement No 773499 SUPREMA) and that came to address this challenge by proposing a meta-platform that supports modelling groups linked already through various other platforms and networks. SUPREMA should help close the gaps between expectations of policy makers and the actual capacity of models to deliver relevant policy analysis. The SUPREMA model family includes a set of ‘core models’ that are already used in support of key European impact assessments in agriculture, trade, climate and bioenergy policies. One of the work-packages of the project ("Testing the SUPREMA model family") had the objective of testing the SUPREMA model family comparing model outcomes of three applications, including: (i) harmonize baseline assumptions and to the extent possible align baseline projections across models in the platform, and (ii) showcase the potential of the models in the meta-platform to respond to the upcoming and existing policy needs by means of two exploratory policy scenarios. This open dataset includes 3 components: 1 - (Baseline scenario) - the harmonized baselines (for 2030 and 2050). Please note that the baseline projections do not take into account the 2020 and possible future effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic 2 - (Agricultural policy scenario) - medium-term horizon scenarios aiming comparing different models and/or model combinations, that have a large degree of ‘similarity’ such as joined indicator variables, i.e.: AGMEMOD-MITERRA (combined) modelling tool and the CAPRI model. The main focus was comparing model results in both agronomic and biophysical domains. Two variants of the agricultural policy scenario have been simulated and compared: (i) a CAP greening scenario; and (ii) a sustainable diet scenario. Both scenarios are hypothetical but have been chosen in such a way that the can provide insights in future policy issues as: (i) a further greening of the CAP fits in the policy implementation space as it is included in the ongoing policy reform of the CAP after 2020; and (ii) as increasing consumer awareness about healthy diets and their relation to meat consumption, as well as the footprint/climate consequences are highly relevant with respect to the Green Deal roadmap (December 2019) and the Farm to Fork Strategy (May 2020) documents that have been recently published. 3 - (Climate change mitigation scenario) - scenarios that quantifies the GHG mitigation potential of the EU’s agricultural sector and domestic and global impacts of the EU policy, conditional on different levels of GHG mitigation efforts in the rest of the world. These are obtained through the SUPREMA models CAPRI, GLOBIOM and MAGNET and include scenarios where the EU only takes ambitious unilateral climate action up to scenario where the 1.5 C target is pursued globally SUPREMA has been coordinated by Wageningen Research with the participation of EuroCARE, Thünen Institute, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) and Research Executive Agency (REA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM). Impact assessments for agriculture are partly based on projections delivered by models. Sectoral policies are becoming more and more interrelated. Hence, there is a need to improve the capacity of current models, connect them or redesign them to deliver on an increasing variety of policy objectives, and to explore future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe. SUPREMA (SUpport for Policy RElevant Modelling of Agriculture) is a project that has received funding from the European Union’s

AbstractPlant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted—net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions—the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic.

This dataset contains the parameterization of a no-policy baseline scenario of the global 11-regional MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model. Regions, time periods, commodities, technologies and relations included in this model are described in a separate repository. The dataset relies on the MESSAGEix modeling framework (Huppmann et al. 2019) and can be imported into MESSAGEix via the read_excel() functionality, for which a tutorial is available, or via snapshot.load() as described here. After the import the scenario can be solved and modified to create new scenarios. Note that the published scenario as included in the ENGAGE global scenarios dataset has been run with a release candidate of version 3.4.0 of MESSAGEix.