• Energy Research

The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO 2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO 2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO 2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO 2 -driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

AbstractThe capacity for terrestrial ecosystems to sequester additional carbon (C) with rising CO2 concentrations depends on soil nutrient availability1,2. Previous evidence suggested that mature forests growing on phosphorus (P)-deprived soils had limited capacity to sequester extra biomass under elevated CO2 (refs. 3–6), but uncertainty about ecosystem P cycling and its CO2 response represents a crucial bottleneck for mechanistic prediction of the land C sink under climate change7. Here, by compiling the first comprehensive P budget for a P-limited mature forest exposed to elevated CO2, we show a high likelihood that P captured by soil microorganisms constrains ecosystem P recycling and availability for plant uptake. Trees used P efficiently, but microbial pre-emption of mineralized soil P seemed to limit the capacity of trees for increased P uptake and assimilation under elevated CO2 and, therefore, their capacity to sequester extra C. Plant strategies to stimulate microbial P cycling and plant P uptake, such as increasing rhizosphere C release to soil, will probably be necessary for P-limited forests to increase C capture into new biomass. Our results identify the key mechanisms by which P availability limits CO2 fertilization of tree growth and will guide the development of Earth system models to predict future long-term C storage.

Innovations in plant and soil sciences are revolutionising our approach to sustainability, offering solutions with broad societal impacts. Discoveries in these fields hold great potential for combatting, mitigating and adapting to climate change; enhancing food security; and revitalising urban environments. By harnessing the power of plants and the soils they grow in, it is possible to cultivate resilience in the face of environmental challenges, informing policy and practice, and thereby guiding us towards a more sustainable future.

Abstract Background Climate change is expected to affect plant–soil feedbacks (PSFs, i.e., the effects of a plant on the growth of another plant or community grown in the same soil via changes in soil abiotic and biotic properties), influencing plant community dynamics and, through this, ecosystem functioning. However, our knowledge of the effects of climate changes on the magnitude and direction of PSFs remains limited, with considerable variability between studies. We quantified PSFs associated with common climate change factors, specifically drought and warming, and their corresponding ambient (control) conditions using a meta-analytical approach. We investigated whether drought and warming effects on PSFs were consistent across functional groups, life histories (annual versus perennial) and species origin (native versus non-native), planting (monoculture, mixed culture) and experimental (field, greenhouse/laboratory) conditions. Results PSFs were negative (a mechanism that encourage species co-existence) under drought and neutral under corresponding ambient conditions, whereas PSFs were negative under both ambient and elevated temperatures, with no apparent difference in effect size. The response to drought was largely driven by stronger negative PSFs in grasses, indicating that grasses are more likely to show stronger negative PSFs than other functional groups under drought. Moreover, non-native species showed negative drought-induced PSFs while native species showed neutral PSFs under drought. By contrast, we found the opposite in pattern in response to warming for native and non-native species. Perennial herbs displayed stronger drought-induced negative PSFs than annual herbs. Mixed species communities displayed more negative PSFs than monocultures, independent of climate treatment. Finally, warming and drought treatment PSF effect sizes were more negative in experiments performed in the field than under controlled conditions. Conclusions We provide evidence that drought and warming can induce context-specific shifts in PSFs, which are dependent on plant functional groups, life history traits and experimental conditions. These shifts would be expected to have implications for plant community dynamics under projected climate change scenarios.

AbstractQuestionClimate change has been shown to cause shifts in plant–soil feedbacks (PSFs) that may affect plant community dynamics, but the effect of prolonged drought is uncertain. We asked whether prolonged drought legacies cause shifts in PSFs due to changes in plant–soil biotic interactions.LocationRichmond, New South Wales, Australia.MethodsWe collected soils from a five‐year field‐based rainfall manipulation experiment simulating ambient rainfall and drought (50% reduction) in a mesic temperate grassland. PSFs of twelve plant species representing four functional groups (C3 and C4 grasses, forbs, and legumes) were assessed when grown alone and in mixed cultures (one species from each of the four functional groups) under laboratory conditions following a standard PSF protocol in soils with ambient rainfall and drought legacies. All soils were sterilised and then re‐inoculated to create the respective treatments including a non‐inoculated control for biota‐mediated PSFs.ResultsPSFs varied considerably among species and functional types in both legacy treatments. Overall, C3 grasses displayed less negative and C4 grasses less positive PSFs in soils with a legacy of prolonged drought compared with soils with ambient rainfall legacies, while PSFs for forbs and legumes were not significantly different from zero in either rainfall treatment. However, PSFs differed between species within functional groups. For example, Plantago showed positive PSFs in soils with ambient rainfall legacies but negative PSFs in soils with drought legacies while the opposite was observed for Medicago. PSFs of the mixed communities showed a trend to shift from positive to neutral in soils with drought legacies, with significant differences in PSFs observed when comparing home vs sterile soils, suggesting that drought may destabilise plant communities.ConclusionsOur results provide evidence that prolonged drought legacies can modify plant community dynamics due to species‐specific changes in PSFs that persist after droughts are alleviated.

AbstractProcess‐based models describing biogeochemical cycling are crucial tools to understanding long‐term nutrient dynamics, especially in the context of perturbations, such as climate and land‐use change. Such models must effectively synthesize ecological processes and properties. For example, in terrestrial ecosystems, plants are the primary source of bioavailable carbon, but turnover rates of essential nutrients are contingent on interactions between plants and soil biota. Yet, biogeochemical models have traditionally considered plant and soil communities in broad terms. The next generation of models must consider how shifts in their diversity and composition affect ecosystem processes.One promising approach to synthesize plant and soil biodiversity and their interactions into models is to consider their diversity from a functional trait perspective. Plant traits, which include heritable chemical, physical, morphological and phenological characteristics, are increasingly being used to predict ecosystem processes at a range of scales, and to interpret biodiversity–ecosystem functional relationships. There is also emerging evidence that the traits of soil microbial and faunal communities can be correlated with ecosystem functions such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas production.Here, we draw on recent advances in measuring and using traits of different biota to predict ecosystem processes, and provide a new perspective as to how biotic traits can be integrated into biogeochemical models. We first describe an explicit trait‐based model framework that operates at small scales and uses direct measurements of ecosystem properties; second, an integrated approach that operates at medium scales and includes interactions between biogeochemical cycling and soil food webs; and third, an implicit trait‐based model framework that associates soil microbial and faunal functional groups with plant functional groups, and operates at the Earth‐system level. In each of these models, we identify opportunities for inclusion of traits from all three groups to reduce model uncertainty and improve understanding of biogeochemical cycles.These model frameworks will generate improved predictive capacity of how changes in biodiversity regulate biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Further, they will assist in developing a new generation of process‐based models that include plant, microbial, and faunal traits and facilitate dialogue between empirical researchers and modellers.