• Energy Research

AbstractCurrent global warming trends are expected to have direct effects on species through their sensitivity to temperature, as well as on their biotic interactions, with cascading indirect effects on species, communities, and entire ecosystems. To predict the community-level consequences of global change we need to understand the relative roles of both the direct and indirect effects of warming. We used a laboratory experiment to investigate how warming affects a tropical community of three species ofDrosophilahosts interacting with two species of parasitoids over a single generation. Our experimental design allowed us to distinguish between the direct effects of temperature on host species performance, and indirect effects through altered biotic interactions (competition among hosts and parasitism by parasitoid wasps). Although experimental warming significantly decreased parasitism for all host-parasitoid pairs, the effects of parasitism and competition on host communities did not vary across temperatures. Instead, effects on host relative abundances were species-specific, with one host species dominating the community at warmer temperatures, independently of parasitism and competition treatments. Our results show that temperature shaped aDrosophilahost community directly through differences in species’ thermal performance, and not via its influences on biotic interactions.

AbstractClimate change is altering the relative timing of species interactions by shifting when species first appear in communities and modifying the duration organisms spend in each developmental stage. However, community contexts, such as intraspecific competition and alternative resource species, can prolong shortened windows of availability and may mitigate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and dynamic simulations, we quantified how the effects of phenological shifts in Drosophila–parasitoid interactions differed with concurrent changes in temperature, intraspecific competition, and the presence of alternative host species. Our study confirmed that warming shortens the window of host susceptibility. However, the presence of alternative host species sustained interaction persistence across a broader range of phenological shifts than pairwise interactions by increasing the degree of temporal overlap with suitable development stages between hosts and parasitoids. Irrespective of phenological shifts, parasitism rates declined under warming due to reduced parasitoid performance, which limited the ability of community context to manage temporally mismatched interactions. These results demonstrate that the ongoing decline in insect diversity may exacerbate the effects of phenological shifts in ecological communities under future global warming temperatures.

Recent reports of insect decline have raised concerns regarding population responses of ecologically important groups, such as insect pollinators. Additionally, how population trends vary across pollinator taxonomic groups and degree of specialization is unclear. Here, we analyse 14 years of abundance data (2009–2022) for 38 species of native insect pollinators, including a range of Coleoptera, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera specialists and generalists from the tropical rainforest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We estimated population trends across taxonomic groups to determine whether specialist species with a narrower range of interacting mutualistic partners are experiencing steeper population declines under environmental change. We also examined the relationship between climate variables and pollinator abundance over time to determine whether differences in sensitivity to climate predict differences in population trends among pollinator species. Our analyses indicated that most pollinator populations were stable or increasing, with few species showing evidence of decline, regardless of their degree of specialization. Differences in climate sensitivity varied among pollinator species but were not associated with population trends, suggesting other environmental factors at play for tropical insect pollinators. These results highlight the need for long-term population data from diverse tropical taxa to better assess the environmental determinants of insect pollinator trends.

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n= 20) or increasing (n= 62), with few (n= 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Understanding the spatial and temporal scales at which environmental variation affects populations of plants and animals is an important goal for modern population biology, especially in the context of shifting climatic conditions. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climatic extremes of interannual variation, and has been shown to have significant effects on the diversity and abundance of a variety of terrestrial taxa. However, studies that have investigated the influence of such large‐scale climate phenomena have often been limited in spatial and taxonomic scope. We used 23 years (1988–2010) of a long‐term butterfly monitoring data set to explore associations between variation in population abundance of 28 butterfly species and variation in ENSO‐derived sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across 10 sites that encompass an elevational range of 2750 m in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. Our analysis detected a positive, regional effect of increased SSTA on butterfly abundance (wetter and warmer years predict more butterfly observations), yet the influence of SSTA on butterfly abundances varied along the elevational gradient, and also differed greatly among the 28 species. Migratory species had the strongest relationships with ENSO‐derived SSTA, suggesting that large‐scale climate indices are particularly valuable for understanding biotic‐abiotic relationships of the most mobile species. In general, however, the ecological effects of large‐scale climatic factors are context dependent between sites and species. Our results illustrate the power of long‐term data sets for revealing pervasive yet subtle climatic effects, but also caution against expectations derived from exemplar species or single locations in the study of biotic‐abiotic interactions.