• Energy Research

Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and showed that the annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March-20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March-20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.

Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and showed that the annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March-20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March-20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.

Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development, timing of egg laying and onset of moult in male and female great tits. We used both natural and artificial temperature patterns to identify the temperature characteristics that matter for birds. Our results show that temperature has a direct, causal effect on onset of egg-laying, and in particular, that it is the pattern of increase rather than the absolute temperature that birds use. Surprisingly, the pre-breeding increases in plasma LH, prolactin and in gonadal size are not affected by increasing temperature, nor do they correlate with the onset of laying. This suggests that the decision to start breeding and its regulatory mechanisms are fine-tuned by different factors. We also found similarities between siblings in the timing of both the onset of reproduction and associated changes in plasma LH, prolactin and gonadal development. In conclusion, while temperature affects the timing of egg laying, the neuroendocrine system does not seem to be regulated by moderate temperature changes. This lack of responsiveness may restrain the advance in the timing of breeding in response to climate change. But as there is heritable genetic variation on which natural selection can act, microevolution can take place, and may represent the only way to adapt to a warming world.

Many bird species have advanced their seasonal timing in response to global warming, but we still know little about the causal effect of temperature. We carried out experiments in climate-controlled aviaries to investigate how temperature affects luteinizing hormone, prolactin, gonadal development, timing of egg laying and onset of moult in male and female great tits. We used both natural and artificial temperature patterns to identify the temperature characteristics that matter for birds. Our results show that temperature has a direct, causal effect on onset of egg-laying, and in particular, that it is the pattern of increase rather than the absolute temperature that birds use. Surprisingly, the pre-breeding increases in plasma LH, prolactin and in gonadal size are not affected by increasing temperature, nor do they correlate with the onset of laying. This suggests that the decision to start breeding and its regulatory mechanisms are fine-tuned by different factors. We also found similarities between siblings in the timing of both the onset of reproduction and associated changes in plasma LH, prolactin and gonadal development. In conclusion, while temperature affects the timing of egg laying, the neuroendocrine system does not seem to be regulated by moderate temperature changes. This lack of responsiveness may restrain the advance in the timing of breeding in response to climate change. But as there is heritable genetic variation on which natural selection can act, microevolution can take place, and may represent the only way to adapt to a warming world.

AbstractMany organisms advance their seasonal reproduction in response to global warming. In birds, which regress their gonads to a nonfunctional state each winter, these shifts are ultimately constrained by the time required for gonadal development in spring. Gonadal development is photoperiodically controlled and shows limited phenotypic plasticity in relation to environmental factors, such as temperature. Heritable variation in the time required for full gonadal maturation to be completed, based on both onset and speed of development and resulting in seasonally different gonad sizes among individuals, is thus a crucial prerequisite for an adaptive advancement of seasonal reproduction in response to changing temperatures. We measured seasonal gonadal development in climate‐controlled aviaries for 144 great tit (Parus major) pairs, which consisted of siblings obtained as whole broods from the wild. We show that the extent of ovarian follicle development (follicle size) in early spring is highly heritable (h2 = 0.73) in females, but found no heritability of the extent of testis development in males. However, heritability in females decreased as spring advanced, caused by an increase in environmental variance and a decrease in additive genetic variation. This low heritability of the variation in a physiological mechanism underlying reproductive timing at the time of selection may hamper genetic adaptation to climate change, a key insight as this great tit population is currently under directional selection for advanced egg‐laying.

AbstractMany organisms advance their seasonal reproduction in response to global warming. In birds, which regress their gonads to a nonfunctional state each winter, these shifts are ultimately constrained by the time required for gonadal development in spring. Gonadal development is photoperiodically controlled and shows limited phenotypic plasticity in relation to environmental factors, such as temperature. Heritable variation in the time required for full gonadal maturation to be completed, based on both onset and speed of development and resulting in seasonally different gonad sizes among individuals, is thus a crucial prerequisite for an adaptive advancement of seasonal reproduction in response to changing temperatures. We measured seasonal gonadal development in climate‐controlled aviaries for 144 great tit (Parus major) pairs, which consisted of siblings obtained as whole broods from the wild. We show that the extent of ovarian follicle development (follicle size) in early spring is highly heritable (h2 = 0.73) in females, but found no heritability of the extent of testis development in males. However, heritability in females decreased as spring advanced, caused by an increase in environmental variance and a decrease in additive genetic variation. This low heritability of the variation in a physiological mechanism underlying reproductive timing at the time of selection may hamper genetic adaptation to climate change, a key insight as this great tit population is currently under directional selection for advanced egg‐laying.