• Energy Research

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.

Les solutions d'atténuation sont souvent évaluées en termes de coûts et de potentiels de réduction des gaz à effet de serre, omettant la prise en compte des effets directs sur le bien-être humain. Ici, nous évaluons systématiquement le potentiel d'atténuation des options du côté de la demande classées en éviter, changer et améliorer, et leurs liens avec le bien-être humain. Nous montrons que ces options, reliant les domaines socio-comportementaux, infrastructurels et technologiques, peuvent réduire les émissions sectorielles contrefactuelles de 40 à 80 % dans les secteurs d'utilisation finale. Sur la base du jugement d'experts et d'une vaste base de données bibliographiques, nous évaluons 306 combinaisons de résultats en matière de bien-être et d'options du côté de la demande, trouvant des effets largement bénéfiques sur l'amélioration du bien-être (79 % positifs, 18 % neutres et 3 % négatifs), même si nous trouvons une faible confiance dans les dimensions sociales du bien-être. La mise en œuvre de telles solutions nuancées est basée de manière axiomatique sur une compréhension des préférences malléables plutôt que fixes, et de manière procédurale sur l'évolution des infrastructures et des architectures de choix. Les résultats démontrent le potentiel élevé d'atténuation des options d'atténuation du côté de la demande qui sont synergiques avec le bien-être. L'évaluation des mesures d'atténuation se concentre souvent sur les coûts et néglige les effets directs sur le bien-être. Ce travail montre que les mesures du côté de la demande ont un grand potentiel d'atténuation et des effets bénéfiques sur les résultats en matière de bien-être. Las soluciones de mitigación a menudo se evalúan en términos de costos y potenciales de reducción de gases de efecto invernadero, sin tener en cuenta los efectos directos sobre el bienestar humano. Aquí, evaluamos sistemáticamente el potencial de mitigación de las opciones del lado de la demanda clasificadas en evitar, cambiar y mejorar, y sus vínculos con el bienestar humano. Mostramos que estas opciones, uniendo los dominios socio-conductuales, infraestructurales y tecnológicos, pueden reducir las emisiones sectoriales contrafactuales en un 40–80% en los sectores de uso final. Con base en el juicio de expertos y una extensa base de datos bibliográfica, evaluamos 306 combinaciones de resultados de bienestar y opciones del lado de la demanda, encontrando efectos en gran medida beneficiosos en la mejora del bienestar (79% positivo, 18% neutral y 3% negativo), a pesar de que encontramos poca confianza en las dimensiones sociales del bienestar. La implementación de tales soluciones matizadas se basa axiomáticamente en la comprensión de preferencias maleables en lugar de fijas, y procedimentalmente en infraestructuras cambiantes y arquitecturas de elección. Los resultados demuestran el alto potencial de mitigación de las opciones de mitigación del lado de la demanda que son sinérgicas con el bienestar. La evaluación de las acciones de mitigación a menudo se centra en el coste y pasa por alto los efectos directos sobre el bienestar. Este trabajo muestra que las medidas del lado de la demanda tienen un gran potencial de mitigación y efectos beneficiosos en los resultados de bienestar. Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. We show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being. Evaluation of mitigation actions often focuses on cost and overlooks the direct effects on well-being. This work shows demand-side measures have large mitigation potential and beneficial effects on well-being outcomes. غالبًا ما يتم تقييم حلول التخفيف من حيث التكاليف وإمكانات الحد من غازات الدفيئة، مع إغفال النظر في الآثار المباشرة على رفاهية الإنسان. هنا، نقيم بشكل منهجي إمكانات التخفيف لخيارات جانب الطلب المصنفة في فئات التجنب والتحول والتحسين، وروابط رفاه الإنسان الخاصة بها. نظهر أن هذه الخيارات، التي تربط بين المجالات الاجتماعية والسلوكية والبنية التحتية والتكنولوجية، يمكن أن تقلل من الانبعاثات القطاعية المضادة بنسبة 40-80 ٪ في قطاعات الاستخدام النهائي. استنادًا إلى حكم الخبراء وقاعدة بيانات شاملة للأدبيات، نقوم بتقييم 306 مجموعة من نتائج الرفاهية وخيارات جانب الطلب، ونجد آثارًا مفيدة إلى حد كبير في تحسين الرفاهية (79 ٪ إيجابي و 18 ٪ محايد و 3 ٪ سلبي)، على الرغم من أننا نجد ثقة منخفضة في الأبعاد الاجتماعية للرفاهية. يعتمد تنفيذ مثل هذه الحلول الدقيقة بشكل بديهي على فهم التفضيلات المرنة بدلاً من التفضيلات الثابتة، ومن الناحية الإجرائية على تغيير البنى التحتية وبنى الاختيار. تُظهر النتائج إمكانات التخفيف العالية لخيارات التخفيف من جانب الطلب التي تتآزر مع الرفاهية. غالبًا ما يركز تقييم إجراءات التخفيف على التكلفة ويتجاهل الآثار المباشرة على الرفاهية. يُظهر هذا العمل أن تدابير جانب الطلب لها إمكانات تخفيف كبيرة وآثار مفيدة على نتائج الرفاهية.

Abstract Urban areas have received increasing attention as key areas to accelerate and upscale climate change. Several Indian cities are witnessing a huge demand for residential buildings, and consequently, for energy-intensive building materials. Using the case study of Ahmedabad city in western India, the study used a bottom-up methodology to develop a methodological framework for estimating the material demand for the residential sector by 2050. The objective of the study was to estimate future housing stock for Ahmedabad and its impact on material demand and CO2 emissions this study adopted a mixed-method approach. The estimated material demand (EMD) for 2050 was derived from the calculated total constructed floor area (CFA) and quantity of material consumption per square meter. The total CFA is calculated using percentages of different housing types, unit sizes, and building height. Using trend analyses data from the last 50 years (1965–2015) and forecasts for the different building typologies, future floor space was estimated. Quantitative research was further strengthened by conducting semi-structured interviews with 16 experts. The results show a residential building typologies over time, with a decline in independent houses and an increase in multistoried apartments by 2050. With the continuation of current trends, 3.1 million new housing units will need to be constructed by 2050. Without policy intervention, 45.6 Mt of cement, 13.3 Mt of steel, and 150 Mt of bricks would be required resulting in 178.1 MtCO2 emissions. The EMD establishes the need to adopt alternative sustainable pathways, including reducing the demand for floor space, and adopting resource efficiency and circular economic principles for building materials. The paper concludes with recommendations for Ahmedabad, which can be replicated in other Indian cities. Future studies could explore alternative scenarios of urban development and how approaches to sufficiency or efficiency can alter material consumption.

Resilience is a multi-faceted concept frequently used across a wide range of disciplines, practices, and sectors. There is a growing recognition of the utility of resilience as a bridging concept that can facilitate inter-and transdisciplinary approaches to tackle complexities inherent in decision making under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Such conditions are common in urban planning, infrastructure planning, asset management, emergency planning, crisis management, and development processes where systemic interdependencies and interests at stake influence decisions and outcomes. A major challenge that can undermine the use of resilience for guiding planning activities is the value-laden and contested nature of the concept that can be interpreted in a variety of ways. Because resilience is context-specific and generally depends on local aspirations, this issue can be partially tackled by adopting participatory approaches for the conceptualization of resilience. This paper provides an example of how co-design methods can be employed for conceptualizing resilience. The Structured Interview Matrix was used as a technique to facilitate discussions among a diverse group of researchers and practitioners attending the International Workshop on Tools and Indicators for Assessing Urban Resilience. Participants deliberated on issues related to constituent elements of urban resilience, including its position vis-

AbstractCities and other human settlements are major contributors to climate change and are highly vulnerable to its impacts. They are also uniquely positioned to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and lead adaptation efforts. These compound challenges and opportunities require a comprehensive perspective on the public policy of human settlements. Drawing on core literature that has driven debate around cities and climate over recent decades, we put forward a set of boundary objects that can be applied to connect the knowledge of epistemic communities and support an integrated urbanism. We then use these boundary objects to develop the Goals-Intervention-Stakeholder-Enablers (GISE) framework for a public policy of human settlements that is both place-specific and provides insights and tools useful for climate action in cities and other human settlements worldwide. Using examples from Berlin, we apply this framework to show that climate mitigation and adaptation, public health, and well-being goals are closely linked and mutually supportive when a comprehensive approach to urban public policy is applied.