• Energy Research

Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.

Climate change leads to species range shifts and consequently to changes in diversity. For many systems, increases in diversity capacity have been forecast, with spare capacity to be taken up by a pool of weedy species moved around by humans. Few tests of this hypothesis have been undertaken, and in many temperate systems, climate change impacts may be confounded by simultaneous increases in human-related disturbance, which also promote weedy species. Areas to which weedy species are being introduced, but with little human disturbance, are therefore ideal for testing the idea. We make predictions about how such diversity capacity increases play out across elevational gradients in non-water-limited systems. Then, using modern and historical data on the elevational range of indigenous and naturalized alien vascular plant species from the relatively undisturbed sub-Antarctic Marion Island, we show that alien species have contributed significantly to filling available diversity capacity and that increases in energy availability rather than disturbance are the probable underlying cause.

AbstractGlobally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

AbstractGlobally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.

Abstract The impact of introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) on recruitment of the megaherbPleurophyllum hookeriBuchan. (Asteraceae) was examined on subantarctic Macquarie Island, an island with no extant native terrestrial vertebrates.Pleurophyllum hookeri(Asteraceae) forms a dominant component of the Macquarie Island vegetation and is restricted to the subantarctic. The Macquarie Island population ofP. hookeriis the most extensive and intact. Introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) are well established in tall tussock grassland of Macquarie Island. We detected rat activity for the first time withinP. hookeriherbfields, in autumn 2000. We found rats were destroying up to 90% of racemes. By excluding rats from caches of inflorescences that they had formed, we found they were having a significant negative effect on initial recruitment and seedling survival within the caches. However, because of high seedling mortality after 1 year, there was no sustained impact of the exclosures onP. hookeriseedling density.

Abstract The impact of introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) on recruitment of the megaherbPleurophyllum hookeriBuchan. (Asteraceae) was examined on subantarctic Macquarie Island, an island with no extant native terrestrial vertebrates.Pleurophyllum hookeri(Asteraceae) forms a dominant component of the Macquarie Island vegetation and is restricted to the subantarctic. The Macquarie Island population ofP. hookeriis the most extensive and intact. Introduced ship rats (Rattus rattus) are well established in tall tussock grassland of Macquarie Island. We detected rat activity for the first time withinP. hookeriherbfields, in autumn 2000. We found rats were destroying up to 90% of racemes. By excluding rats from caches of inflorescences that they had formed, we found they were having a significant negative effect on initial recruitment and seedling survival within the caches. However, because of high seedling mortality after 1 year, there was no sustained impact of the exclosures onP. hookeriseedling density.

AbstractAimsTo identify potential hull fouling marine invasive species that could survive in East Antarctica presently and in the future.LocationAustralia's Antarctic continental stations: Davis, Mawson and Casey, East Antarctica; and subantarctic islands: Macquarie Island and Heard and McDonald Islands.MethodsOur study uses a novel machine‐learning algorithm to predict which currently known hull fouling MIS could survive in shallow benthic ecosystems adjacent to Australian Antarctic research stations and subantarctic islands, where ship traffic is present. We used gradient boosted machine learning (XGBoost) with four important environmental variables (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and pH) to develop models of suitable environments for each potentially invasive species. We then used these models to determine if any of Australia's three Antarctic research stations and two subantarctic islands could be environmentally suitable for MIS now and under two future climate scenarios.ResultsMost of the species were predicted to be unable to survive at any location between now and the end of this century; however, four species were identified as potential current threats and five as threats under future climate change. Asterias amurensis was identified as a potential threat to all locations.Main conclusionsThis study suggests that the risks are very low, but plausible, that known hull fouling species could survive in the shallow benthic habitats near Australia's East Antarctica locations and suggest a precautionary approach is needed by way of surveillance and monitoring in this region, particularly if propagule pressure increases. While some species could survive as adults in the region, their ability to reach these locations and undergo successful reproduction is considered unlikely based on current knowledge.