• Energy Research

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Abstract Background Assessing the historical dynamics of key food web components is crucial to understand how climate change impacts the structure of Arctic marine ecosystems. Most retrospective stable isotopic studies to date assessed potential ecosystem shifts in the Arctic using vertebrate top predators and filter-feeding invertebrates as proxies. However, due to long life histories and specific ecologies, ecosystem shifts are not always detectable when using these taxa. Moreover, there are currently no retrospective stable isotopic studies on various other ecological and taxonomic groups of Arctic biota. To test whether climate-driven shifts in marine ecosystems are reflected in the ecology of short-living mesopredators, ontogenetic changes in stable isotope signatures in chitinous hard body structures were analysed in two abundant squids (Gonatus fabricii and Todarodes sagittatus) from the low latitude Arctic and adjacent waters, collected between 1844 and 2023. Results We detected a temporal increase in diet and habitat-use generalism (= opportunistic choice rather than specialization), trophic position and niche width in G. fabricii from the low latitude Arctic waters. These shifts in trophic ecology matched with the Atlantification of the Arctic ecosystems, which includes increased generalization of food webs and higher primary production, and the influx of boreal species from the North Atlantic as a result of climate change. The Atlantification is especially marked since the late 1990s/early 2000s. The temporal patterns we found in G. fabricii’s trophic ecology were largely unreported in previous Arctic retrospective isotopic ecology studies. Accordingly, T. sagittatus that occur nowadays in the high latitude North Atlantic have a more generalist diet than in the XIXth century. Conclusions Our results suggest that abundant opportunistic mesopredators with short life cycles (such as squids) are good candidates for retrospective ecology studies in the marine ecosystems, and to identify ecosystem shifts driven by climate change. Enhanced generalization of Arctic food webs is reflected in increased diet generalism and niche width in squids, while increased abundance of boreal piscivorous fishes is reflected in squids’ increased trophic position. These findings support opportunism and adaptability in squids, which renders them as potential winners of short-term shifts in Arctic ecosystems.

Increasing concern about the impacts of climate change on ecosystems is prompting ecologists and ecosystem managers to seek reliable projections of physical drivers of change. The use of global climate models in ecology is growing, although drawing ecologically meaningful conclusions can be problematic. The expertise required to access and interpret output from climate and earth system models is hampering progress in utilizing them most effectively to determine the wider implications of climate change. To address this issue, we present a joint approach between climate scientists and ecologists that explores key challenges and opportunities for progress. As an exemplar, our focus is the Southern Ocean, notable for significant change with global implications, and on sea ice, given its crucial role in this dynamic ecosystem. We combined perspectives to evaluate the representation of sea ice in global climate models. With an emphasis on ecologically-relevant criteria (sea ice extent and seasonality) we selected a subset of eight models that reliably reproduce extant sea ice distributions. While the model subset shows a similar mean change to the full ensemble in sea ice extent (approximately 50% decline in winter and 30% decline in summer), there is a marked reduction in the range. This improved the precision of projected future sea ice distributions by approximately one third, and means they are more amenable to ecological interpretation. We conclude that careful multidisciplinary evaluation of climate models, in conjunction with ongoing modeling advances, should form an integral part of utilizing model output.

ABSTRACTImportant findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder‐relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed‐dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of ‘scientific understanding’ revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub‐messages, indicating that process‐oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services.