• Energy Research

The COVID-19 pandemic sent the oil industry into turmoil on a scale not seen since the 1970s. While the sector appears to be recovering, questions remain about the extent to which the pandemic has offered a glimpse into the possible future of the industry. This future is critical to the success of climate change mitigation, which requires significant cuts to the carbon dioxide emissions from using oil for energy. Therefore, it makes sense to consider future scenarios in which global oil demand peaks and then declines alongside scenarios of continued demand growth. This is a significant departure from historical development of oil demand and the dominant discussion of many decades about "peak oil" and the fear of demand outstripping readily available supply. The implications of peaking oil demand would be massive, not only for the oil industry but also for society as whole. There is not enough understanding of what the impacts would be, or how to prepare for them. The research community needs to take a clear-eyed view of potential futures of oil, which includes considering scenarios in which demand goes into long-term decline.

Micro-combined heat and power (CHP) holds great potential for lowering energy cost and CO2 emissions in the residential housing sector. Of the various micro-CHP technologies, fuel cells, and in particular solid oxide fuel cells, show great promise due to their high electrical efficiency and resulting low heat-to-power ratio that is better suited to residential applications. However, fuel cells are still under development and the capital cost of units available today remains high. This paper looks at the technological aspects and operating modes of fuel cells relevant to micro-CHP as well as examining the state of commercial development, life cycle issues and the techno-economics of fuel cells for micro-CHP at the residential scale.

Climate change and geopolitical risks call for the rapid transformation of the European electricity system. Wind and solar are the lowest cost and risk, and the cleanest energy sources, but their variability poses integration challenges. Combining both technologies and integrating regions with dissimilar generation patterns optimizes the trade-off between maximizing capacity factor and minimizing output variability, which respectively give the lowest levelized cost and lowest integration cost. We apply the Markovitz mean-variance framework to a rich multi-decade dataset of wind and solar productivity to quantify the potential benefits of spatially integrating variable renewable resources across European countries at hourly, daily and monthly timescales. We find that optimizing the shares of wind and solar installed capacities in an integrated EU-wide electricity system can increase capacity factor by 21.6% while reducing its hourly variability by 25.6%. This framework could enable policymakers to factor system-wide impliciations into investment roadmaps, rather than solely considering each project in isolation. This would help speed the clean energy transition by reducing the system-wide cost of electricity systems with predominantly variable renewable generation.

AbstractSociety's dependence on weather systems has broadened to include electricity generation from wind turbines. Climate change is altering energy flows in the atmosphere, which will affect the economic potential of wind power. Changes to wind resources and their upstream impacts on the energy industry have received limited academic attention, despite their risks earning interest from investors.We propose a framework for assessing the impact of climate change on the cost of wind energy, going from the change in hourly wind speed distributions from radiative forcing through to energy output and levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from wind farms. The paper outlines the proof of concept for this framework, exploring the limitations of global climate models for assessing wind resources, and a novel Weibull transfer function to characterise the climate signal.The framework is demonstrated by considering the UK's wind resources to 2100. Results are mixed: capacity factors increase in some regions and decrease in others, while the year-to-year variation generally increases. This highlights important financial and risk impacts which can be adopted into policy to enhance energy system resilience to the impacts of climate change. We call for greater emphasis to be placed on modelling wind resources in climate science.

AbstractAccurate modelling of the weather’s temporal and spatial impacts on building energy demand is critical to decarbonizing energy systems. Here we introduce a customizable model for hourly heating and cooling demand applicable globally at all spatial scales. We validate against demand from ~5,000 buildings and 43 regions across four continents. The model requires limited data inputs and shows better agreement with measured demand than existing models. We use it first to demonstrate that a 1 °C reduction in thermostat settings across all buildings could reduce Europe’s gas consumption by 240 TWh yr−1, approximately one-sixth of historical imports from Russia. Second, we show that service demand for cooling is increasing by up to 5% per year in some regions due to climate change, and 5 billion people experience >100 additional cooling degree days per year when compared with a generation ago. The model and underlying data are freely accessible to promote further research.

Offshore wind energy is rapidly expanding, facilitated largely through auctions run by governments. We provide a detailed quantified overview of applied auction schemes, including geographical spread, volumes, results, and design specifications. Our comprehensive global dataset reveals heterogeneous designs. Although most remuneration designs provide some form of revenue stabilisation, their specific instrument choices vary and include feed-in tariffs, one-sided and two-sided contracts for difference, mandated power purchase agreements, and mandated renewable energy certificates. We review the schemes used in all eight major offshore wind jurisdictions across Europe, Asia, and North America and evaluate bids in their jurisdictional context. We analyse cost competitiveness, likelihood of timely construction, occurrence of strategic bidding, and identify jurisdictional aspects that might have influenced auction results. We find that auctions are embedded within their respective regulatory and market design context, and are remarkably diverse, though with regional similarities. Auctions in each jurisdiction have evolved and tend to become more exposed to market price risks over time. Less mature markets are more prone to make use of lower-risk designs. Still, some form of revenue stabilisation is employed for all auctioned offshore wind energy farms analysed here, regardless of the specific policy choices. Our data confirm a coincidence of declining costs and growing diffusion of auction regimes. 55 pages, 6 figures

Electrical energy storage is expected to be important for decarbonizing personal transport and enabling highly renewable electricity systems. This study analyses data on 11 storage technologies, constructing experience curves to project future prices, and explores feasibl…