• Energy Research

Thresholds of aridity Increasing aridity due to climate change is expected to affect multiple ecosystem structural and functional attributes in global drylands, which cover ∼45% of the terrestrial globe. Berdugo et al. show that increasing aridity promotes thresholds on the structure and functioning of drylands (see the Perspective by Hirota and Oliveira). Their database includes 20 variables summarizing multiple aspects and levels of ecological organization. They found evidence for a series of abrupt ecological events occurring sequentially in three phases, culminating with a shift to low-cover ecosystems that are nutrient- and species-poor at high aridity values. They estimate that more than 20% of land surface will cross at least one of the thresholds by 2100, which can potentially lead to widespread land degradation and desertification worldwide. Science , this issue p. 787 ; see also p. 739

Grazing represents the most extensive use of land worldwide. Yet its impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain because pervasive interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil properties, and biodiversity may occur but have never been addressed simultaneously. Using a standardized survey at 98 sites across six continents, we show that interactions between grazing pressure, climate, soil, and biodiversity are critical to explain the delivery of fundamental ecosystem services across drylands worldwide. Increasing grazing pressure reduced ecosystem service delivery in warmer and species-poor drylands, whereas positive effects of grazing were observed in colder and species-rich areas. Considering interactions between grazing and local abiotic and biotic factors is key for understanding the fate of dryland ecosystems under climate change and increasing human pressure.

Large-scale, abrupt ecosystem change in direct response to climate extremes is a critical but poorly documented phenomenon1. Yet, recent increases in climate-induced tree mortality raise concern that some forest ecosystems are on the brink of collapse across wide environmental gradients2,3. Here we assessed climatic and productivity trends across the world's five Mediterranean forest ecosystems from 2000 to 2021 and detected a large-scale, abrupt forest browning and productivity decline in Chile (>90% of the forest in <100 days), responding to a sustained, acute drought. The extreme dry and warm conditions in Chile, unprecedented in the recent history of all Mediterranean-type ecosystems, are akin to those projected to arise in the second half of the century4. Long-term recovery of this forest is uncertain given an ongoing decline in regional water balance. This dramatic plummet of forest productivity may be a spyglass to the future for other Mediterranean ecosystems.

ABSTRACTResilience is a key feature of ecosystem dynamics reflecting a system's ability to resist and recover from environmental perturbations. Slowing down in the rate of recovery has been used as an early‐warning signal for abrupt transitions. Recent advances in Earth observation (EO) vegetation data provide the capability to capture broad‐scale resilience patterns and identify regions experiencing resilience loss. However, the proliferation of methods for evaluating resilience using EO data has introduced significant uncertainty, leading to contradictory resilience estimates across approximately 73% of the Earth's land surface. To reconcile these perspectives, we review the range of methods and associated metrics that capture aspects of ecosystem resilience using EO data. Using a principal component analysis, we empirically test the relationships between the most widely used resilience metrics and explore emergent patterns within and among the world's biomes. Our analysis reveals that the 10 resilience metrics aggregate into four core components of ecosystem dynamics, highlighting the multidimensional nature of ecosystem resilience. We also find that ecosystems with slower recovery are more resistant to drought extremes. Furthermore, the relationships between resilience metrics vary across the world's biomes and vegetation types. These results illustrate the inherent differences in the dynamics of natural systems and highlight the need for careful consideration when evaluating broad‐scale resilience patterns across biomes. Our findings provide valuable insights for identifying global resilience patterns, which are critically needed to inform policy decisions and guide conservation efforts globally.

AbstractClimate change will affect the way biodiversity influences the stability of plant communities. Although biodiversity, associated species asynchrony, and species stability could enhance community stability, the understanding of potential nonlinear shifts in the biodiversity–stability relationship across a wide range of aridity (measured as the aridity index, the precipitation/potential evapotranspiration ratio) gradients and the underlying mechanisms remain limited. Using an 8‐year dataset from 687 sites in Mongolia, which included 5496 records of vegetation and productivity, we found that the temporal stability of plant communities decreased more rapidly in more arid areas than in less arid areas. The result suggests that future aridification across terrestrial ecosystems may adversely affect community stability. Additionally, we identified nonlinear shifts in the effects of species richness and species synchrony on temporal community stability along the aridity gradient. Species synchrony was a primary driver of community stability, which was consistently negatively affected by species richness while being positively affected by the synchrony between C3 and C4 species across the aridity gradient. These results highlight the crucial role of C4 species in stabilizing communities through differential responses to interannual climate variations between C3 and C4 species. Notably, species richness and the synchrony between C3 and C4 species independently regulated species synchrony, ultimately affecting community stability. We propose that maintaining plant communities with a high diversity of C3 and C4 species will be key to enhancing community stability across Mongolian grasslands. Moreover, species synchrony, species stability, species richness and the synchrony between C3 and C4 species across the aridity gradient consistently mediated the impacts of aridity on community stability. Hence, strategies aimed at promoting the maintenance of biological diversity and composition will help ecosystems adapt to climate change or mitigate its adverse effects on ecosystem stability.