• Energy Research

ABSTRACTWind is the primary dispersal mechanism of most fungal spores but is rarely considered in studies of fungal communities, limiting inference of assembly mechanisms and forecasting responses to climate change. We compiled wind‐connectivity models—‘windscapes’—to model potential dispersal of fungal spores at the continental scale and linked them with a molecular dataset of North American soil fungi. Our analyses demonstrate that prevailing windflow patterns exhibit a significantly stronger signal on fungal community structure than do geographic distances amongst sites. Notably, the signature of wind was detectable for mushrooms and fungi producing primarily wind‐dispersed spores. Contrastingly, fungi primarily reliant on animal dispersal exhibited a strong signature of geographic distance but not wind‐connectivity. Additionally, we show that directionally ‘downwind’ sites are more diverse than comparatively ‘upwind’ sites. Altogether, our findings suggest that future wind patterns will shape the adaptation potential of fungal communities dispersing into suitable climatic niches.

Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr-1 (mean ± s.e.) and -3.04 ± 0.742 mm yr-1, and these changes occurred at a pace similar to that of climate warming and drying. These directional shifts were consistent across observations and experiments. Our findings contrast with the lagged responses observed in communities dominated by long-lived plants and suggest greater biodiversity changes than expected in the near future.

AbstractGrassland ecosystems provide essential services to society. To maintain ecosystem functions and services of grasslands under changing environments, it is critical to understand how grasslands respond and feedback to climate change. Here, we present results from a long‐term (16 years) warming and clipping (to mimic hay harvesting or grazing) experiment conducted in a grassland ecosystem dominated by C4 grasses in the Great Plains, USA. We analyzed responses of net primary production (NPP), aboveground NPP (ANPP), and belowground NPP (BNPP) to the expanded ranges of climate conditions observed in the experiment. NPP, ANPP, and BNPP all responded to the climatic variables nonlinearly, with higher degrees of nonlinearity for BNPP than that for ANPP. BNPP peaked at the optimum air temperature of 17.5–18.5°C while ANPP peaked at the optimum air temperature of 18.5–20.0°C. The optimum air temperatures for both ANPP and BNPP were higher than mean annual temperature (16.3°C) at the site. The optimum precipitation for BNPP was intermediate levels (775–1250 mm) while ANPP was maximized in wetter conditions (1250–1605 mm) compared with BNPP. Clipping significantly reduced ANPP and shifted the optimum conditions for BNPP to warmer and wetter conditions. In summary, C4‐grass dominant ecosystems have the potential to increase NPP in future warmer and wetter conditions, and clipping may amplify this positive effect in this grassland ecosystem.

AbstractMountain treelines are thought to be sensitive to climate change. However, how climate impacts mountain treelines is not yet fully understood as treelines may also be affected by other human activities. Here, we focus on “closed‐loop” mountain treelines (CLMT) that completely encircle a mountain and are less likely to have been influenced by human land‐use change. We detect a total length of ~916,425 km of CLMT across 243 mountain ranges globally and reveal a bimodal latitudinal distribution of treeline elevations with higher treeline elevations occurring at greater distances from the coast. Spatially, we find that temperature is the main climatic driver of treeline elevation in boreal and tropical regions, whereas precipitation drives CLMT position in temperate zones. Temporally, we show that 70% of CLMT have moved upward, with a mean shift rate of 1.2 m/year over the first decade of the 21st century. CLMT are shifting fastest in the tropics (mean of 3.1 m/year), but with greater variability. Our work provides a new mountain treeline database that isolates climate impacts from other anthropogenic pressures, and has important implications for biodiversity, natural resources, and ecosystem adaptation in a changing climate.

AbstractClimatic changes are altering Earth's hydrological cycle, resulting in altered precipitation amounts, increased interannual variability of precipitation, and more frequent extreme precipitation events. These trends will likely continue into the future, having substantial impacts on net primary productivity (NPP) and associated ecosystem services such as food production and carbon sequestration. Frequently, experimental manipulations of precipitation have linked altered precipitation regimes to changes in NPP. Yet, findings have been diverse and substantial uncertainty still surrounds generalities describing patterns of ecosystem sensitivity to altered precipitation. Additionally, we do not know whether previously observed correlations between NPP and precipitation remain accurate when precipitation changes become extreme. We synthesized results from 83 case studies of experimental precipitation manipulations in grasslands worldwide. We used meta‐analytical techniques to search for generalities and asymmetries of aboveground NPP (ANPP) and belowground NPP (BNPP) responses to both the direction and magnitude of precipitation change. Sensitivity (i.e., productivity response standardized by the amount of precipitation change) of BNPP was similar under precipitation additions and reductions, but ANPP was more sensitive to precipitation additions than reductions; this was especially evident in drier ecosystems. Additionally, overall relationships between the magnitude of productivity responses and the magnitude of precipitation change were saturating in form. The saturating form of this relationship was likely driven by ANPP responses to very extreme precipitation increases, although there were limited studies imposing extreme precipitation change, and there was considerable variation among experiments. This highlights the importance of incorporating gradients of manipulations, ranging from extreme drought to extreme precipitation increases into future climate change experiments. Additionally, policy and land management decisions related to global change scenarios should consider how ANPP and BNPP responses may differ, and that ecosystem responses to extreme events might not be predicted from relationships found under moderate environmental changes.

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

AbstractTree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using theUSDAForest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.

AbstractThe degree to which elevated CO2 concentrations (e[CO2]) increase the amount of carbon (C) assimilated by vegetation plays a key role in climate change. However, due to the short‐term nature of CO2 enrichment experiments and the lack of reconciliation between different ecological scales, the effect of e[CO2] on plant biomass stocks remains a major uncertainty in future climate projections. Here, we review the effect of e[CO2] on plant biomass across multiple levels of ecological organization, scaling from physiological responses to changes in population‐, community‐, ecosystem‐, and global‐scale dynamics. We find that evidence for a sustained biomass response to e[CO2] varies across ecological scales, leading to diverging conclusions about the responses of individuals, populations, communities, and ecosystems. While the distinct focus of every scale reveals new mechanisms driving biomass accumulation under e[CO2], none of them provides a full picture of all relevant processes. For example, while physiological evidence suggests a possible long‐term basis for increased biomass accumulation under e[CO2] through sustained photosynthetic stimulation, population‐scale evidence indicates that a possible e[CO2]‐induced increase in mortality rates might potentially outweigh the effect of increases in plant growth rates on biomass levels. Evidence at the global scale may indicate that e[CO2] has contributed to increased biomass cover over recent decades, but due to the difficulty to disentangle the effect of e[CO2] from a variety of climatic and land‐use‐related drivers of plant biomass stocks, it remains unclear whether nutrient limitations or other ecological mechanisms operating at finer scales will dampen the e[CO2] effect over time. By exploring these discrepancies, we identify key research gaps in our understanding of the effect of e[CO2] on plant biomass and highlight the need to integrate knowledge across scales of ecological organization so that large‐scale modeling can represent the finer‐scale mechanisms needed to constrain our understanding of future terrestrial C storage.