• Energy Research

AbstractThe Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030, and bans the use of biofuels with a high risk of causing indirect land‐use change in high carbon stock areas (high ILUC‐risk criteria). The only biofuel feedstock affected by this criterion is palm oil. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART‐BIO for a scenario‐based policy analysis and evaluate a phase‐out of palm oil‐based biodiesel, and an additional phase‐out of soy oil‐based biodiesel in the EU. Our results show that the palm phase‐out has only a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production and total crop land use in tropical and subtropical regions, while the soy phase‐out leads to a comparable stronger decrease in global soy production, and a reduction in total cropland use in soy‐producing regions. Both policies lead to increased oilseed production in the EU. Therefore, farmer in Malaysia and Indonesia face a significantly reduced income. While European farmers profit the most, EU firms and households are confronted with higher expenditures. Finally, this study indicates that unilateral demand‐side regulations for a single good in a single sector is not sufficient for effective environmental protection. Enhanced binding sustainability criteria and certification schemes for the use of all vegetable oils in every sector and industry as well as improved protection schemes for sensible forest areas are necessary.

Les événements extrêmes, tels que ceux causés par le changement climatique, les chocs économiques ou géopolitiques et les épidémies de ravageurs ou de maladies, menacent la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. La complexité de la causalité, ainsi que la myriade de façons dont un événement, ou une séquence d'événements, crée des impacts en cascade et systémiques, posent des défis importants à la recherche sur les systèmes alimentaires et aux politiques. Pour identifier les risques prioritaires pour la sécurité alimentaire et les opportunités de recherche, nous avons demandé à des experts de divers domaines et régions géographiques de décrire les principales menaces pour la sécurité alimentaire mondiale au cours des deux prochaines décennies et de suggérer des questions et des lacunes de recherche clés sur ce sujet. Nous présentons ici une hiérarchisation des menaces à la sécurité alimentaire mondiale résultant d'événements extrêmes, ainsi que des questions de recherche émergentes qui mettent en évidence les défis conceptuels et pratiques qui existent dans la conception, l'adoption et la gouvernance de systèmes alimentaires résilients. Nous espérons que ces résultats aideront à orienter le financement de la recherche et les ressources vers les transformations du système alimentaire nécessaires pour aider la société à faire face aux principaux risques du système alimentaire et à l'insécurité alimentaire en cas d'événements extrêmes. Los eventos extremos, como los causados por el cambio climático, las crisis económicas o geopolíticas y las epidemias de plagas o enfermedades, amenazan la seguridad alimentaria mundial. La complejidad de la causalidad, así como las innumerables formas en que un evento, o una secuencia de eventos, crea impactos en cascada y sistémicos, plantea desafíos significativos para la investigación y las políticas de los sistemas alimentarios por igual. Para identificar los riesgos prioritarios para la seguridad alimentaria y las oportunidades de investigación, pedimos a expertos de una variedad de campos y geografías que describieran las amenazas clave para la seguridad alimentaria mundial en las próximas dos décadas y que sugirieran preguntas y brechas clave de investigación sobre este tema. Aquí, presentamos una priorización de las amenazas a la seguridad alimentaria mundial derivadas de eventos extremos, así como preguntas de investigación emergentes que resaltan los desafíos conceptuales y prácticos que existen para diseñar, adoptar y gobernar sistemas alimentarios resilientes. Esperamos que estos hallazgos ayuden a dirigir la financiación de la investigación y los recursos hacia las transformaciones del sistema alimentario necesarias para ayudar a la sociedad a abordar los principales riesgos del sistema alimentario y la inseguridad alimentaria en situaciones extremas. Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events. وتهدد الأحداث المتطرفة، مثل تلك الناجمة عن تغير المناخ والصدمات الاقتصادية أو الجيوسياسية وأوبئة الآفات أو الأمراض، الأمن الغذائي العالمي. إن تعقيد السببية، فضلاً عن الطرق التي لا تعد ولا تحصى التي يخلق بها الحدث، أو سلسلة من الأحداث، تأثيرات متتالية ومنهجية، تشكل تحديات كبيرة لبحوث وسياسات النظم الغذائية على حد سواء. لتحديد مخاطر الأمن الغذائي ذات الأولوية وفرص البحث، طلبنا من خبراء من مجموعة من المجالات والمناطق الجغرافية وصف التهديدات الرئيسية للأمن الغذائي العالمي على مدى العقدين المقبلين واقتراح أسئلة وثغرات بحثية رئيسية حول هذا الموضوع. هنا، نقدم أولوية للتهديدات التي يتعرض لها الأمن الغذائي العالمي من الأحداث المتطرفة، بالإضافة إلى أسئلة البحث الناشئة التي تسلط الضوء على التحديات المفاهيمية والعملية الموجودة في تصميم وتبني وإدارة النظم الغذائية المرنة. نأمل أن تساعد هذه النتائج في توجيه تمويل البحوث والموارد نحو تحولات النظام الغذائي اللازمة لمساعدة المجتمع على معالجة المخاطر الرئيسية للنظام الغذائي وانعدام الأمن الغذائي في ظل الأحداث المتطرفة.

When modelling medium and long-term challenges we need a reference path of economic development (the so-called baseline). Because sectoral models often offer a more fundamental understanding of future developments for specific sectors, many CGE modeling teams have adopted different kinds of linking approaches to sectoral models to generate baselines. We systematically compare and discuss approaches of linking CGE models for the baseline calibration procedure, and discuss best practices and pitfalls. We identify different types of linking approaches which we divide into a) links with partial equilibrium models, and b) links with non-economic models. These two types of linking approaches are then analyzed with respect to e.g. the degree of linkage, information exchanged, as well as compromises in aggregations and definitions. Based on this, we discuss potential drawbacks and conclude with suggestions for best practices and research recommendations.

Abstract The production of bioenergy is considered to be a promising energy source for a sustainable energy mix and it is politically promoted in many countries. With the exception of Brazilian ethanol, bioenergy is not competitive with fossil energy sources, and therefore needs to be subsidised. Several types of bioenergy are based on bulky raw biomass with high per unit transport costs, importantly impacting on the plant's production costs and profitability. In addition, considerable quantities of digestates are released, causing disposal costs. Various studies in the past aimed primarily at analysing transport costs of inputs. In this paper we focus on disposal costs of fermentation digestates from biogas production in Germany and analyse different processing techniques and their impact on profitability for three plant size in three case study areas. Our results show that especially in regions with only a small amount of agricultural land and a large heterogeneity in its agricultural area, processing of digestates increases the profitability of biogas production. The same accounts for regions with high livestock density, where the area needed for disposal is comparatively large. The cost efficiency is enforced by a high share of animal excrements on input and the biogas plant size.

AbstractThe Renewable-Energy-Source-Act (EEG) promotes German biogas production in order to substitute fossil fuels, protect the environment and prevent climate change. In this paper we quantitatively analyse the EEG-reform in 2008. Results imply that the reform contributes to an expansion of biogas electricity generation and thus to substitution of fossil fuels. However, subsidies, land and transport emissions per unit of electricity produced increase. An alternative analysis shows that an EEG with tariffs independent from plant-types would provide the highest subsidy-efficiency, lower land requirements and higher transport emissions compared to EEG before its reformation.

Abstract As part of its climate policy, Germany promotes the production of biogas via its so-called Renewable-Energy-Act (EEG). The resulting boost in biogas output went along with a significant increase in production of green maize, the dominant feedstock. Existing studies of the EEG have analysed its impacts on German agriculture without considering market feedback. We thus expand existing quantitative analysis by also considering impacts on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment by combining a detailed location model for biogas plants, the Regionalised Location Information System-Maize (ReSi-M2012), with a global Partial Equilibrium model for agriculture, the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) model. Our results indicate that the German biogas production is large enough to have sizeable impacts on global agricultural markets in prices and quantities, causing significant land use change outside of Germany. While profits in the agricultural sector increase, food consumer face higher prices, and subsidies for biogas production are passed on to electricity consumers. The German biogas program, as long as it is almost entirely based on non-waste feedstocks, is probably not a promising avenue towards a GHG-saving renewable energy production, but a rather expensive one.