• Energy Research

The commercial apple production in Norway is limited to the small regions along the fjords in the southwest part of the country and around lakes or near the sea in the southeast with favorable climate. Due to the rapid rate of climate change over the recent decades, it is expected that suitable heat conditions for apple growing will expand to the areas that were previously too cold. This study analyses the heat suitability of future climate (2021–2100) under the RCP8.5 scenario for 6 common apple varieties in Norway: Discovery, Gravenstein, Summerred, Aroma, Rubinstep and Elstar. Previously established heat requirement criteria (based on the temperature threshold for the full blooming and growing degree days sum between the full bloom and harvest) are applied to the temperature outputs of the regional climate models downscaled to 1 km resolution. The assessment indicates that as temperature rises, heat conditions suitable for cultivation of all 6 apple varieties will expand. According to the ensemble median value, areas with the favorable heat conditions for growing at least one of the considered apple varieties will increase 25 times in the period 2021–2040 and 60 times in the period 2041–2060, compared to the referent period 1971–2000. At the same time, areas suitable for all 6 apple varieties will increase 3 times in the first, and 3.8 times in the latter period. The favorable areas will advance from south and southeast northwards and inland in the eastern region, along the west and northwestern coastline towards higher latitudes, and along continental parts of fjords. The fastest expansion of heat suitable conditions is expected for Discovery and Gravenstein. The findings of this study are relevant for zoning apple production future potential and for strategical planning of climate change adaptation measures within the sector. Weather-related risks, such as risks from winter low temperatures, spring frost, drought and extreme precipitation were not considered.

In agriculture, climate change will have the strongest impact on orcharding, due to the length of the growing season. High temperatures, droughts and more intense solar radiation could burn leaves and fruits, which would impair the quality and marketable yield. On the other hand, heavy rains, if they occur during the period of flowering and maturing, especially of cherries and berries (strawberries, blackberries, raspberries), would result in the spread of fungi, rotting of fruit and delayed picking. In this regard, the objective of the paper is to assess the extent to which climate change will affect the availability of water in traditional, rainfed orchards, as well as to promote adaptation initiatives. The CROPWAT 8.0 model was used to analyze water surplus and shortage. Input climate data pertained to a reference period and SRES climate scenarios A1B, A2 and RCP 8.5 applied to three characteristic climatic areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyses showed that water surplus would occur regularly in the colder part of the year, in each study area and by all scenarios. All study areas would also experience water shortages in summer, but with varying drought duration and severity. Adaptation measures are proposed for each study area and period of the year, such as the need for drainage in winter, irrigation in summer and application of new technologies for growing fruit trees.

Viticulture production, like the entire agriculture, is subject to climate changes related to a significant increase in air temperature. High air temperatures during the ripening period negatively affect the yield and quality of grapes. Apart from the increase in air temperature, grape production is also affected by rainfall and the frequency of extreme events. Climate projections for the future predict a further increase in air temperature and a change in the most important viticultural indices. The analysis shows that there has been a change in the climate category according to WI and HI values, and in some areas also CI. The Drought Index (DI) does not show significant changes in the first two periods (2021- 2040; 2041-2060), in contrast to the increased frequency of droughts and the extension of the duration of the dry period during the year. Since the most significant risks in viticulture come from high temperatures during the grape ripening period and from hail and stormy weather during the growing season, appropriate adaptation measures are needed.

Grape production is highly responsive to weather conditions and therefore very sensitive to climate change. To evaluate how viticulture in the traditional Italian wine region Emilia-Romagna could be affected by climate change, several bioclimatic indices describing the suitability for grapevine production were calculated for two future periods (2011–2040 and 2071–2100) using CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) high-resolution climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios—RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The projections for both of the RCP scenarios showed that most of the Emilia-Romagna region will remain suitable for grape production during the period 2011–2040. By the end of the twenty-first century, the suitability to produce grapes in Emilia-Romagna could be threatened to a greater or smaller extent, depending on the scenario. During the period 2071–2100, the entire Emilia-Romagna region will be too hot for grape production under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, changes will be milder, suggesting that the Emilia-Romagna region could still be suitable for grape cultivation by the end of the twenty-first century but would likely require certain adjustments.

Abstract The analysis of spatiotemporal changes of temperature extremes in Serbia, based on 18 ETCCDI indices, was performed using daily minimum and maximum temperature observations from 26 meteorological stations over the period 1961–2010. The observation period was divided into two sub-periods (1961–1980 and 1981–2010) according to the results of the sequential Mann–Kendall test. Temporal trends were evaluated by a least-squares linear regression method. The average annual minimum temperature displayed a mixed pattern of increasing, decreasing, and no trends over 1961–1980 and a significant increasing trend over 1981–2010 across the whole country, with a regionally averaged rate of 0.48 °C per decade. The average annual maximum temperature showed a decreasing trend during 1961–1980 and a significant increasing trend at all stations during 1981–2010, with a regionally averaged rate of 0.56 °C per decade. Hot indices exhibited a general cooling tendency until 1980 and a warming tendency afterwards, with the most pronounced trends in the number of summer and tropical days during the first period and in the frequency of warm days and nights in the second. Cold indices displayed a mostly warming tendency over the entire period, with the most remarkable increase in the lowest annual maximum temperature and the number of ice days during the first period and in the frequency of cool nights during the second. At most stations, the diurnal temperature range showed a decrease until 1980 and no change or a slight increase afterwards. The lengthening of the growing season was much more pronounced in the later period. The computed correlation coefficient between the annual temperature indices and large-scale circulation features revealed that the East Atlantic pattern displayed much stronger association with examined indices than the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern.

Climate change, through changes in temperature, precipitation, and frequency of extreme events, has influenced agricultural production and food security over the past several decades. In order to assess climate and weather-related risks to fruit and grape production in Serbia, changes in bioclimatic indices and frequency of the occurrence of unfavourable weather events are spatially analysed for the past two decades (1998–2017) and the standard climatological period 1961–1990. Between the two periods, the Winkler and Huglin indices changed into a warmer category in most of the viticultural regions of Serbia. The average change shift was about 200 m towards higher elevations. Regarding the frequency of spring frost, high summer temperatures and water deficit, the most vulnerable regions in terms of fruit and grape production are found alongside large rivers (Danube, Sava, Great and South Morava), as well as in the northern part of the country. Regions below 300 m are under increased risk of high summer temperatures, as the number and duration of occurrences increased significantly over the studied periods. The high-resolution spatial analysis presented here gives an assessment of the climate change influence on the fruit and grapes production. The presented approach may be used in regional impact assessments and national planning of adaptation measures, and it may help increase resilience of agricultural production to climate change.

Analysis of climate change in Serbia was done using the data available from the Digital Climate Atlas of Serbia. It includes observed climate change and future climate change projections according to scenarios of greenhouse gases emissions, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, until the end of 21st century, compared to the reference period 1961-1990. According to the main climate change indicator, change of average air temperature, climate change is accelerating. Results showed that climate conditions in the mid-century period are known with high reliability, while changes of climate conditions in the second half of the century depend on reductions of global net emissions of greenhouse gases, i.e. on the fulfillment of the Paris agreement. In this paper, the changes in climate hazards are presented. They are of highest significance for risk increase in health and safety and in agriculture. For the mid-century period, an expected increase of average air temperature for Serbia is about 3.1?C. Expected frequency of extreme precipitation is at least once per year. Each year is most likely expected to be a year with drought. Average frequency of days per year, with temperatures above 35?C, for the territory of Serbia, will be in the range of 9-13, compared to one day in the reference period. In the paper the summary of climate change characteristics in Serbia is also given, based on the presented results and results derived from the literature, categorized into groups of climate hazards, which cause: too warm conditions, too wet conditions, too dry conditions and storms.

In the presented work, daily observations of minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation-spatially interpolated in a high-resolution grid (5 x 5 km)-were used to detect climate shifts in the viticultural appellation areas of the Emilia-Romagna (ER) region, in the periods 1961-1990 and 1986-2015. The growing season (April to October) minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures were significantly increased in the second period compared to the first over the majority of the ER. Precipitation did not differ significantly, with the exception of certain small northeastern areas of the ER. The detected changes affected the ER viticultural environment in several ways: (1) an increase in the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 30 degrees C, which can induce plant stress; (2) changes in starting and ending dates of the climatologically defined growing season, dates of the first fall frost and the last spring frost, and length of the frost-free period; (3) shifts of most vineyard areas from 'Region 2/Region 3' to 'Region 3/Region 4' (according to the Winkler Index); (4) shifts of the majority of the grape-producing zones from 'temperate/warm temperate' to 'warm temperate/warm' (according to the Huglin Index); (5) de creased availability of soil water, which is necessary for grapevine development.