• Energy Research

The strategic analysis for the decommissioning of thermoelectric plants is seen as a trend for the coming years. The search for renewable alternatives should stimulate investment in other energy sources, reducing the number of thermoelectric plants in the energy generation system. However, few studies have dealt with the decommissioning of oil-fired thermoelectric plants. In this work, the methodology was applied under deterministic and stochastic conditions using methods of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), discounted payback, capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The results showed that the deterministic NPV was positive, ranging from R$101.30 million (pessimistic scenario) to R$109.73 million (optimistic scenario). The IRR was higher than the WACC of 10.55 %, ranging from 13.50 % to 13.68 % per year. For the Monte Carlo simulation, NPV was observed with 100 % certainty of viability and the probabilities of occurrence allowed more analysis of the risks involved than those obtained by deterministic methods. this study contributes to future decommissioning projects in Brazil, considering the scenario of stimulating renewable sources and the energy transition, helping managers make decisions about their projects. In addition, it helps guide public policies that can optimize the decommissioning process and strengthen the national energy sector.

Abstract The purpose of this article is to explore some business models suitable for medium- and low-voltage electricity consumers and analyze the risks and opportunities associated with the diffusion of distributed generation. The approach considers demand response mechanisms that contribute to mitigating commercial risks and overcoming the operational challenges arising from large-scale integration of distributed generation. In particular, the study assesses new application opportunities for distributed generation of renewable energy and examines related measures to mitigate possible market risks associated with the intermittency characteristics of this type of sources. This research has a global perspective but focuses on the case of Brazil. The article proposes four business models to address the issues of small consumers (residential and commercial) as part of the demand response program established in the country. Two of these models are found adequate to reflect the current electricity market, but the existing regulations may require some modifications before the other two could be applied. However, these latter models can be applied to more mature markets. Moreover, the article describes a demand response pilot program that is already in operation, which could serve as a platform to preprocess the proposed business models.

Abstract Auctions have been used to promote renewables and introduce new technologies, and Brazil has a tradition in this field. The Brazilian government designed a framework with the goal of introducing solar PV into the power mix that includes contracts to reduce the risks for investors. The first large-scale auction for this technology was held in October 2014, and the process achieved an average price reduction of 17.26% below the starting price. The auction process was also successful with respect to new contracted capacity, with 31 new power plants and 889.7 MW (AC) of new capacity. Observed capacity factors of winning bids were high, but they were in accordance with new technologies and recent studies. Nonetheless, the regulatory agency must monitor generation performance. Higher investments are likely related to the deployment of tracking technology, reflecting a higher capacity factor. Furthermore, the Brazilian case is unique due to long-term experience and large scale in using auctions for renewables, such as wind and biomass. Lastly, Brazil's example is relevant in international debate given that the country replaced its Feed-in-Tariff program for auctions in 2005, a point that is worth studying in its own right.

Considering three different moments of concessions renewal of hydro power plants in Brazil (1995, 2012 and 2015), this paper analyses the methodology used in each one, identifying the positive and negative points, putting together the results and proposing actions for the new tranche of concessions renewals, in 2026.

With deregulation and the privatization processes in progress, there were high expectations that the private sector would invest in generation and transmission, but this did not occur. The shortage of generation was exacerbated by drought conditons that deteriorated reservoir levels. These circumstances led to an increase of the risk of an energy shortage. Plans are now being implemented that take measures to assure a proper balance of generation and consumption in the near and long-term future.

This article evaluated bioelectricity’s evolving competitiveness and systemic complementarity benefits, both in comparison with other renewable sources. To do so, the results of several energy auctions were analysed, and a modelling exercise was developed using an optimisation model based on stochastic dual dynamic programming. The results indicate that wind and solar energies became the least cost expansions, and sugarcane bioelectricity lost significance and competitiveness in this environment. At the same time, the study shows that wind power’s potential to be complementary to hydropower generation is greater than bioenergy in Brazil. These findings have relevant policy implications regarding the power sector and whether bioelectricity from sugarcane should still be incentivised along with wind power sources. It is worthwhile to point out that although the Brazilian case is explored in the article, it can be used as an example by other countries, especially developing ones, that can take advantage of Brazilian expertise on biomass exploitation aiming at integration with the power sector.

In many regions around the world (e.g. Norway, Canada and Brazil) it has been observed that exist a natural synergism in the seasonal generation profile of hydro and wind power plants, which permits the implementation of trading strategies to take advantage of this peculiarity. This paper proposes a model to analyze hydro-wind complementarity and the portfolio effect on financial profits and risk exposures. The model, which aims at to find the optimal portfolio and the amount of energy volume allocation in contracts, is optimized through Genetic Algorithm technique and uses the CVaR risk measure. It is applied to check the complementarity effect among one hydro and ten wind power plants spread over the Brazilian territory. Results obtained show strong benefit for some wind power producers when associate with hydro producers, since their risk profiles are minimized, constraint by their firm energy certificate level.

In the context of high energy costs and energy transition, the optimal use of energy resources for industrial consumption is fundamental. This paper presents a decision-making structure for large consumers having flexibility to manage electricity or natural gas consume to satisfy the demands of industrial processes. The proposed modelling energy system structure relates monthly medium and hourly short-term decisions to which these agents are subjected, represented by two connected optimization models. In the medium term, the decision occurs under uncertain conditions of energy and natural-gas market prices, as well as hydropower generation (self-production). The monthly decision is represented by a risk-constrained optimization model. In the short term, hourly optimization considers the operational flexibility of energy and/or natural-gas consumption, subject to the strategy defined in the medium term and mathematically connected by a regret cost function. The model application of a real case of a Brazilian aluminum producer indicates a measured energy cost reduction of U$ 3.98 million over a six-month analysis period.