• Energy Research

Destabilization of the water cycle threatens human lives and livelihoods. Meanwhile our understanding of whether and how changes in vegetation cover could trigger abrupt transitions in moisture regimes remains incomplete. This challenge calls for better evidence as well as for the theoretical concepts to describe it. Here we briefly summarise the theoretical questions surrounding the role of vegetation cover in the dynamics of a moist atmosphere. We discuss the previously unrecognized sensitivity of local wind power to condensation rate as revealed by our analysis of the continuity equation for a gas mixture. Using the framework of condensation-induced atmospheric dynamics, we then show that with the temperature contrast between land and ocean increasing up to a critical threshold, ocean-to-land moisture transport reaches a tipping point where it can stop or even reverse. Land-ocean temperature contrasts are affected by both global and regional processes, in particular, by the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat that are strongly influenced by vegetation. Our results clarify how a disturbance of natural vegetation cover, e.g., by deforestation, can disrupt large-scale atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. In view of the increasing pressure on natural ecosystems, successful strategies of mitigating climate change require taking into account the impact of vegetation on moist atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides a theoretical framework to assess this impact. The available data for Eurasia indicate that the observed climatological land-ocean temperature contrasts are close to the threshold. This can explain the increasing fluctuations in the continental water cycle including droughts and floods and signifies a yet greater potential importance for large-scale forest conservation. 25 pages, 5 figures, and 1 table

AbstractIn their paper “The tropospheric land–sea warming contrast as the driver of tropical sea level pressure changes,” Bayr and Dommenget proposed a simple model of temperature-driven air redistribution to quantify the ratio between changes of sea level pressure ps and mean tropospheric temperature Ta in the tropics. This model assumes that the height of the tropical troposphere is isobaric. Here problems with this model are identified. A revised relationship between ps and Ta is derived governed by two parameters—the isobaric and isothermal heights—rather than just one. Further insight is provided by the earlier model of Lindzen and Nigam, which was the first to use the concept of isobaric height to relate tropical ps to air temperature, and they did this by assuming that isobaric height is always around 3 km and isothermal height is likewise near constant. Observational data, presented here, show that neither of these heights is spatially universal nor does their mean values match previous assumptions. Analyses show that the ratio of the long-term changes in ps and Ta associated with land–sea temperature contrasts in a warming climate—the focus of Bayr and Dommenget’s work—is in fact determined by the corresponding ratio of spatial differences in the annual mean ps and Ta. The latter ratio, reflecting lower pressure at higher temperature, is significantly impacted by the meridional pressure and temperature differences. Considerations of isobaric heights are shown to be unable to predict either spatial or temporal variation in ps. As noted by Bayr and Dommenget, the role of moisture dynamics in generating sea level pressure variation remains in need of further theoretical investigations.