• Energy Research

Historical electrical disturbances highlight the impact of extreme weather on power system resilience. Even though the occurrence of such events is rare, the severity of their potential impact calls for 1) developing suitable resilience assessment techniques to capture their impacts and 2) assessing relevant strategies to mitigate them. This paper aims to provide fundamentals insights on the modeling and quantification of power systems resilience. Specifically, a fragility model of individual components and then of the whole transmission system is built for mapping the real-time impact of severe weather, with focus on wind events, on their failure probabilities. A probabilistic multitemporal and multiregional resilience assessment methodology, based on optimal power flow and sequential Monte Carlo simulation, is then introduced, allowing the assessment of the spatiotemporal impact of a windstorm moving across a transmission network. Different risk-based resilience enhancement (or adaptation) measures are evaluated, which are driven by the resilience achievement worth index of the individual transmission components. The methodology is demonstrated using a test version of the Great Britain's system. As key outputs, the results demonstrate how, by using a mix of infrastructure and operational indices, it is possible to effectively quantify system resilience to extreme weather, identify and prioritize critical network sections, whose criticality depends on the weather intensity, and assess the technical benefits of different adaptation measures to enhance resilience.

Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities.

Cities are particularly vulnerable to climate risks due to their agglomeration of people, buildings and infrastructure. Differences in methodology, hazards considered, and climate models used limit the utility and comparability of climate studies on individual cities. Here we assess, for the first time, future changes in flood, heat-waves (HW), and drought impacts for all 571 European cities in the Urban Audit database using a consistent approach. To capture the full range of uncertainties in natural variability and climate models, we use all climate model runs from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the RCP8.5 emissions scenario to calculate Low, Medium and High Impact scenarios, which correspond to the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of each hazard for each city. We find that HW days increase across all cities, but especially in southern Europe, whilst the greatest HW temperature increases are expected in central European cities. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions intensify in southern European cities while river flooding worsens in northern European cities. However, the high impact scenario projects that most European cities will see increases in both drought and river flood risks. Over 100 cities are particularly vulnerable to two or more climate impacts. Moreover, the magnitude of impacts exceeds those previously reported highlighting the substantial challenge cities face to manage future climate risks.

AbstractAssuming communities in a city may formally express their aspirations for the future sustainability of their city, which technological innovations for changing the city's infrastructure and metabolism might they introduce today, as a first step towards realizing their distant aspirations? What is more, recognizing the diversity of aspirations that may never be reconciled into a consensus, might some innovations and policy interventions be nevertheless more privileged than others, in being non-foreclosing? How might we discover this? These questions are addressed through a computational case study of London. The city's metabolism is modeled as the set of interacting, cross-sectoral (water, food, energy, waste) flows of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), water, and energy. Given various degrees of target improvements in an accompanying set of metabolic performance metrics, and given four candidate technological innovations in the water sector, an inverse (or “backcasting”) analysis is implemented in order to identify the key technological, policy, social, and climate-related features determining whether the community's aspirations — through the surrogates of the metabolic performance metrics — are attainable (or not), under substantial uncertainty. From this, the paper proceeds to examine which businesses are currently marketing some of the so-identified key technological innovations. It closes with a brief review of the related status of the economic justifications and social changes that may either promote or stifle the opportunities for London to move towards a higher niveau of sustainability.

Climate change mitigation strategies are developed at international, national, and local authority levels. Technological solutions such as renewable energies (RE) and electric vehicles (EV) have geographically widespread knock-on effects on raw materials. In this paper, a decision-support and data-visualization tool named “LAYERS” is presented, which applies a material flow analysis to illustrate the complex connections along supply chains for carbon technologies. A case study focuses on cobalt for lithium-ion batteries (LIB) required for EVs. It relates real business data from mining and manufacturing to actual EV registrations in the UK to visualize the intended and unintended consequences of the demand for cobalt. LAYERS integrates a geographic information systems (GIS) architecture, database scheme, and whole series of stored procedures and functions. By means of a 3D visualization based on GIS, LAYERS conveys a clear understanding of the location of raw materials (from reserves, to mining, refining, manufacturing, and use) across the globe. This highlights to decision makers the often hidden but far-reaching geo-political implications of the growing demands for a range of raw materials that are needed to meet long-term carbon-reduction targets.

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.