• Energy Research

According to Bergmann's and Allen's rules, climate change may drive morphological shifts in species, affecting body size and appendage length. These rules predict that species in colder climates tend to be larger and have shorter appendages to improve thermoregulation. Bats are thought to be sensitive to climate and are therefore expected to respond to climatic changes across space and time. We conducted a phylogenetic meta‐analysis on > 27 000 forearm length (FAL) and body mass (BM) measurements from 20 sedentary European bat species to examine body size patterns. We assessed the relationships between body size and environmental variables (winter and summer temperatures, and summer precipitation) across geographic locations, and also analysed temporal trends in body size. We found sex‐specific morphological shifts in the body size of European bats in response to temperature and precipitation patterns across space, but no clear temporal changes due to high interspecific variability. Across Europe, male FAL decreased with increasing summer and winter temperatures, and BM increased with greater precipitation. In contrast, both FAL and BM of female bats increased with summer precipitation and decreased with winter temperatures. Our data can confirm Bergmann's rule for both males and females, while females' BM variations are also related to summer precipitation, suggesting a potential link to resource availability. Allen's rule is confirmed only in males in relation to summer temperature, while in females FAL and BM decrease proportionally with increasing temperature, maintaining a constant allometric relationship incompatible with Allen's rule. This study provides new insights into sex and species‐dependent morphological changes in bat body size in response to temperature and precipitation patterns. It highlights how body size variation reflects adaptations to temperature and precipitation patterns, thus providing insights into potential species‐level morphological responses to climate change across Europe.

AbstractGlobally, the impacts of anthropogenic climate change can displace species into more favourable climates. Semi‐arid desert specialists, such as the sandhill dunnart, Sminthopsis psammophila, are typically susceptible to rainfall deficits, wildfires and extreme temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change. We first used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models (SDMs) to predict the current distribution of S. psammophila. Between 2016 and 2018, we ground validated the model’s predictions throughout Western Australia, confirming S. psammophila in 18 locations in which it was predicted to occur. The predicted distribution of S. psammophila appears mostly constrained to within its known range. However, S. psammophila was verified 150 km north of its range in Western Australia and connectivity between the South Australian populations was correctly predicted. In 2019, we used updated occurrence data to project SDMs for S. psammophila during the mid‐Holocene, present day and under two future representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP 4.5 (an optimistic emissions scenario) and RCP 8.5 (“business as usual”) for 2050 and 2070. By 2050 (RCP 8.5), almost all Western Australian Great Victoria Desert (WAGVD) habitat is predicted to be unsuitable for S. psammophila. By 2070 (RCP 8.5), the climates of the WAGVD and Yellabinna Regional Reserve populations are predicted to become unsuitable, and the species’ geographical range is predicted to contract in Australia by 80%. However, the 2070 (RCP 4.5) scenario predicts that this contraction could be halved. As a sandy desert specialist, the distribution of S. psammophila is geographically limited at its southern bounds due to the cessation of suitable spinifex (Triodia spp.) habitats, and so further extension of the range southwards is not possible. Sympatric desert species may be similarly affected, and we suggest that SDMs will be a useful tool in helping to predict the effects of climate change on their distributions.

AbstractWhile climate change is recognized as a major future threat to biodiversity, most species are currently threatened by extensive human‐induced habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Tropical high‐altitude alpine and montane forest ecosystems and their biodiversity are particularly sensitive to temperature increases under climate change, but they are also subject to accelerated pressures from land conversion and degradation due to a growing human population. We studied the combined effects of anthropogenic land‐use change, past and future climate changes and mountain range isolation on the endemic Ethiopian Highlands long‐eared bat, Plecotus balensis, an understudied bat that is restricted to the remnant natural high‐altitude Afroalpine and Afromontane habitats. We integrated ecological niche modelling, landscape genetics and model‐based inference to assess the genetic, geographic and demographic impacts of past and recent environmental changes. We show that mountain range isolation and historic climates shaped population structure and patterns of genetic variation, but recent anthropogenic land‐use change and habitat degradation are associated with a severe population decline and loss of genetic diversity. Models predict that the suitable niche of this bat has been progressively shrinking since the last glaciation period. This study highlights threats to Afroalpine and Afromontane biodiversity, squeezed to higher altitudes under climate change while losing genetic diversity and suffering population declines due to anthropogenic land‐use change. We conclude that the conservation of tropical montane biodiversity requires a holistic approach, using genetic, ecological and geographic information to understand the effects of environmental changes across temporal scales and simultaneously addressing the impacts of multiple threats.

AbstractWith rates of climate change exceeding the rate at which many species are able to shift their range or adapt, it is important to understand how future changes are likely to affect biodiversity at all levels of organisation. Understanding past responses and extent of niche conservatism in climatic tolerance can help predict future consequences. We use an integrated approach to determine the genetic consequences of past and future climate changes on a bat species, Plecotus austriacus. Glacial refugia predicted by palaeo‐modelling match those identified from analyses of extant genetic diversity and model‐based inference of demographic history. Former refugial populations currently contain disproportionately high genetic diversity, but niche conservatism, shifts in suitable areas and barriers to migration mean that these hotspots of genetic diversity are under threat from future climate change. Evidence of population decline despite recent northward migration highlights the need to conserve leading‐edge populations for spearheading future range shifts.

Local adaptations can determine the potential of populations to respond to environmental changes, yet adaptive genetic variation is commonly ignored in models forecasting species vulnerability and biogeographical shifts under future climate change. Here we integrate genomic and ecological modeling approaches to identify genetic adaptations associated with climate in two cryptic forest bats. We then incorporate this information directly into forecasts of range changes under future climate change and assessment of population persistence through the spread of climate-adaptive genetic variation (evolutionary rescue potential). Considering climate-adaptive potential reduced range loss projections, suggesting that failure to account for intraspecific variability can result in overestimation of future losses. On the other hand, range overlap between species was projected to increase, indicating that interspecific competition is likely to play an important role in limiting species’ future ranges. We show that although evolutionary rescue is possible, it depends on a population’s adaptive capacity and connectivity. Hence, we stress the importance of incorporating genomic data and landscape connectivity in climate change vulnerability assessments and conservation management.

AbstractPredicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land‐use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%–16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land‐use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human‐wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.