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The data contains three supporting datasets: 1. Mid-intertidal data 2. Vertical transect data 3. GPS coordinates for all sites

AbstractMarine encrusting communities play vital roles in benthic ecosystems and have major economic implications with regards to biofouling. However, their ability to persist under projected warming scenarios remains poorly understood and is difficult to study under realistic conditions. Here, using heated settlement panel technologies, we show that after 18 months Antarctic encrusting communities do not acclimate to either +1 °C or +2 °C above ambient temperatures. There is significant up-regulation of the cellular stress response in warmed animals, their upper lethal temperatures decline with increasing ambient temperature and population genetic analyses show little evidence of differential survival of genotypes with treatment. By contrast, biofilm bacterial communities show no significant differences in community structure with temperature. Thus, metazoan and bacterial responses differ dramatically, suggesting that ecosystem responses to future climate change are likely to be far more complex than previously anticipated.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

Climate change is causing increased coastal freshening in Antarctica, leading to reduced salinity. For Antarctica’s endemic echinoderms, adapted to the stable polar environment, the impact of rapid reductions in coastal salinity on physiology and behaviour is currently unknown. Six common Antarctic echinoderms (the sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri ; the sea star Odontaster validus ; the brittle star Ophionotus victoriae ; and three sea cucumbers Cucumaria georgiana , Echinopsolus charcoti and Heterocucumis steineni ), were directly transferred from ambient salinity (34.5‰) to a range of salinity dilutions (29–9‰) for 24 h. All species showed reduced activity and the establishment of a temporary osmotic gradient between coelomic fluid and external seawater. Most species exhibited a depression in oxygen consumption across tolerated salinities; however, at very low salinities that later resulted in mortality, oxygen consumption increased to levels comparable to those at ambient. Low salinity tolerance varied substantially between species, with O. victoriae being the least tolerant (24 h LC 50 (lethal for 50% of animals) = 19.9‰) while E. charcoti and C. georgiana demonstrated the greatest tolerance (24 h LC 50 = 11.5‰). These findings demonstrate the species-specific response of Antarctica’s endemic echinoderms to short-term hypoosmotic salinity events, providing valuable insight into this phylum’s ability to respond to an underreported impact of climate change.

Cet article présente les résultats de notre cinquième exercice annuel d'analyse de l'horizon, qui vise à identifier les sujets qui peuvent de plus en plus affecter la conservation de la diversité biologique, mais qui n'ont pas encore été largement pris en compte. Une équipe de scanners d'horizon professionnels, de chercheurs, de praticiens et d'un journaliste a identifié 15 sujets qui ont été identifiés via un processus itératif de type Delphi. Les 15 sujets comprennent un krach financier induit par le marché du carbone, l'expansion géographique rapide de la culture des macroalgues, le contrôle génétique des espèces invasives, la thérapie probiotique pour les amphibiens et une maladie fongique émergente des serpents. Este documento presenta el resultado de nuestro quinto ejercicio anual de exploración del horizonte, que tiene como objetivo identificar temas que pueden afectar cada vez más a la protección de la diversidad biológica, pero que aún no se han considerado ampliamente. Un equipo de escáneres profesionales de horizontes, investigadores, profesionales y un periodista identificaron 15 temas que se identificaron a través de un proceso iterativo similar a Delphi. Los 15 temas incluyen un colapso financiero inducido por el mercado de carbono, la rápida expansión geográfica del cultivo de macroalgas, el control genético de especies invasoras, la terapia probiótica para anfibios y una enfermedad fúngica emergente de serpientes. This paper presents the output of our fifth annual horizon-scanning exercise, which aims to identify topics that increasingly may affect conservation of biological diversity, but have yet to be widely considered. A team of professional horizon scanners, researchers, practitioners, and a journalist identified 15 topics which were identified via an iterative, Delphi-like process. The 15 topics include a carbon market induced financial crash, rapid geographic expansion of macroalgal cultivation, genetic control of invasive species, probiotic therapy for amphibians, and an emerging snake fungal disease. تعرض هذه الورقة مخرجات تمريننا السنوي الخامس لمسح الآفاق، والذي يهدف إلى تحديد الموضوعات التي قد تؤثر بشكل متزايد على الحفاظ على التنوع البيولوجي، ولكن لم يتم النظر فيها على نطاق واسع بعد. حدد فريق من ماسحات الأفق المهنية والباحثين والممارسين وصحفي 15 موضوعًا تم تحديدها من خلال عملية تكرارية تشبه عملية دلفي. تشمل الموضوعات الخمسة عشر الانهيار المالي الناجم عن سوق الكربون، والتوسع الجغرافي السريع لزراعة الطحالب الكبيرة، والتحكم الوراثي في الأنواع الغازية، والعلاج بالبروبيوتيك للبرمائيات، ومرض فطريات الثعابين الناشئة.

AbstractClimate change is known to affect the distribution and composition of species, but concomitant alterations to functionally important aspects of behaviour and species-environment relations are poorly constrained. Here, we examine the ecosystem ramifications of changes in sediment-dwelling invertebrate bioturbation behaviour—a key process mediating nutrient cycling—associated with near-future environmental conditions (+ 1.5 °C, 550 ppm [pCO2]) for species from polar regions experiencing rapid rates of climate change. We find that responses to warming and acidification vary between species and lead to a reduction in intra-specific variability in behavioural trait expression that adjusts the magnitude and direction of nutrient concentrations. Our analyses also indicate that species behaviour is not predetermined, but can be dependent on local variations in environmental history that set population capacities for phenotypic plasticity. We provide evidence that certain, but subtle, aspects of inter- and intra-specific variation in behavioural trait expression, rather than the presence or proportional representation of species per se, is an important and under-appreciated determinant of benthic biogeochemical responses to climate change. Such changes in species behaviour may act as an early warning for impending ecological transitions associated with progressive climate forcing.

Climate change has ecosystem-wide cascading effects. Little is known, however, about the resilience of Arctic marine ecosystems to environmental change. Here we quantify and compare large-scale patterns in rocky intertidal biomass, coverage and zonation in six regions along a north-south gradient of temperature and ice conditions in West Greenland (60-72°N). We related the level and variation in assemblage composition, biomass and coverage to latitudinal-scale environmental drivers. Across all latitudes, the intertidal assemblage was dominated by a core of stress-tolerant foundation species that constituted >95% of the biomass. Hence, canopy-forming macroalgae, represented by Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens and F. vesiculosus and, up to 69 °N, also Ascophyllum nodosum, together with Semibalanus balanoides, occupied >70% of the vertical tidal range in all regions. Thus, a similar functional assemblage composition occurred across regions, and no latitudinal depression was observed. The most conspicuous difference in species composition from south to north was that three common species (the macroalgae Ascophyllum nodosum, the amphipod Gammarus setosus and the gastropod Littorina obtusata) disappeared from the mid-intertidal, although at different latitudes. There were no significant relationships between assemblage metrics and air temperature or sea ice coverage as obtained from weather stations and satellites, respectively. Although the mean biomass decreased >50% from south to north, local biomass in excess of 10 000 g ww m-2 was found even at the northernmost site, demonstrating the patchiness of this habitat and the effect of small-scale variation in environmental characteristics. Hence, using the latitudinal gradient in a space-for-time substitution, our results suggest that while climate modification may lead to an overall increase in the intertidal biomass in north Greenland, it is unlikely to drive dramatic functional changes in ecosystem structure in the near future. Our dataset provides an important baseline for future studies to verify these predictions for Greenlands intertidal zone.