• Energy Research
• 2016-2025close

AbstractShort rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time.

Les infrastructures de mobilité routière et ferroviaire sont à la base des services de mobilité et sous-tendent plusieurs objectifs de développement durable, mais induisent également une utilisation des matériaux et des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. À ce jour, aucune étude cohérente stock-flux n'a évalué les stocks mondiaux accumulés d'infrastructures de mobilité, les flux et émissions de matériaux associés et leurs schémas spatiaux. Nous présentons les résultats mondiaux sur les stocks de matériaux pour toutes les routes, les infrastructures ferroviaires, y compris les tunnels et les ponts, et modélisons les flux de matériaux associés et leurs émissions intrinsèques pour l'année 2021. Le modèle cohérent stock-flux combine des données Open Street Maps provenant de la foule avec des conceptions d'infrastructure archétypales, des compositions matérielles, des hypothèses sur les durées de vie et les taux de croissance du réseau, y compris les plages d'incertitude. Nous dérivons des estimations de stocks spatialement explicites au niveau national pour 180 pays et les cartographions à une résolution de 5 minutes d'arc, et dérivons des flux de matières et des émissions incorporées au niveau des pays. Nous constatons que 314 [218-403] Gt de matériaux (41 [28–53] tonnes/cap) se sont accumulés dans les infrastructures de mobilité mondiales, la majorité dans les routes sous forme d'agrégats et d'asphalte. Les stocks sont inégalement répartis entre les pays, de 23 [16–30] tonnes/cap en moyenne dans les pays à faible revenu, à 130 [89–164] tonnes/cap dans les pays à revenu élevé. L'inégalité spatiale des stocks par habitant par zone diffère selon les ordres de grandeur, de 101 à 104 entre les zones rurales, suburbaines et urbaines denses. Nous constatons que 8 [4–16] Gt/an de flux de matières sont dus à l'expansion et à la maintenance, soit 6 [3–10] % de l'extraction mondiale des ressources. Celles-ci se traduisent par 0,36 [0,19-0,69] Gt éq CO2/an, soit 1 [0,5-1,9] % des émissions mondiales de GES en 2021. Environ les deux tiers de ces flux résultent de l'entretien et du remplacement des stocks, ce qui indique un verrouillage important de l'utilisation des ressources en raison des stocks d'infrastructures déjà existants. Ces résultats confirment le rôle crucial de l'amélioration de l'aménagement du territoire, de la limitation de l'expansion des stocks et de la (sous-)urbanisation, pour parvenir à une utilisation plus durable des ressources et atténuer le changement climatique. Las carreteras y las infraestructuras de movilidad ferroviarias son la base de los servicios de movilidad y sustentan varios Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible, pero también inducen el uso de materiales y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Hasta la fecha, ningún estudio consistente de stock-flujo ha evaluado las existencias acumuladas a nivel mundial de infraestructuras de movilidad, los flujos y emisiones de materiales asociados y sus patrones espaciales. Presentamos los resultados globales sobre las existencias de materiales para todas las carreteras, infraestructuras ferroviarias, incluidos túneles y puentes, y los flujos de materiales asociados al modelo y sus emisiones incorporadas para el año 2021. El modelo consistente de stock-flujo combina datos de Open Street Maps de fuentes múltiples con diseños de infraestructura arquetípicos, composiciones de materiales, suposiciones sobre la vida útil y las tasas de crecimiento de la red, incluidos los rangos de incertidumbre. Derivamos estimaciones de existencias a nivel nacional espacialmente explícitas para 180 países y las mapeamos a una resolución de 5 minutos de arco, y derivamos flujos de materiales y emisiones incorporadas a nivel de país. Encontramos que 314 [218-403] Gt de materiales (41 [28–53] toneladas/cap) se han acumulado en la infraestructura de movilidad global, la mayoría en carreteras como áridos y asfalto. Las existencias se distribuyen de manera desigual entre los países, desde promedios de 23 [16–30] toneladas/límite en los países de bajos ingresos, hasta 130 [89–164] toneladas/límite en los países de altos ingresos. La desigualdad espacial de las poblaciones per cápita por área difiere en órdenes de magnitud, de 101 a 104 entre las áreas rurales, suburbanas y urbanas densas. Encontramos que 8 [4–16] Gt/año de flujos de materiales se deben a la expansión y el mantenimiento, que ascienden al 6 [3–10] % de la extracción global de recursos. Estos se traducen en 0.36 [0.19–0.69] Gt CO2eq/año, o 1 [0.5–1.9] % de las emisiones globales de GEI en 2021. Aproximadamente dos tercios de estos flujos son el resultado del mantenimiento y la sustitución de existencias, lo que indica un importante bloqueo del uso de recursos debido a las existencias de infraestructura ya existentes. Estos hallazgos respaldan el papel crucial de mejorar la planificación espacial, limitar la expansión de las poblaciones y la (sub)urbanización, para lograr un uso más sostenible de los recursos y mitigar el cambio climático. Roads and rail-based mobility infrastructures are the basis for mobility services and underpin several Sustainable Development Goals, but also induce material use and greenhouse gas emissions. To date, no stock-flow consistent study has assessed globally accumulated stocks of mobility infrastructures, associated material flows and emissions, and their spatial patterns. We present global findings on material stocks for all roads, rail-based infrastructures, incl. tunnels and bridges, and model associated material flows and their embodied emissions for the year 2021. The stock-flow consistent model combines crowd-sourced Open Street Maps data with archetypical infrastructure designs, material compositions, assumptions on lifetimes and network growth rates, incl. uncertainty ranges. We derive spatially explicit, national-level stock estimates for 180 countries and map them at a resolution of 5 arcminutes, and derive material flows and embodied emissions at the country-level. We find that 314 [218–403] Gt of materials (41 [28–53] tons/cap) have accumulated in global mobility infrastructure, the majority in roads as aggregates and asphalt. Stocks are unequally distributed between countries, from averages of 23 [16–30] tons/cap in low income countries, to 130 [89–164] tons/cap in high income countries. Spatial inequality of per capita stocks per area differs by orders of magnitude, from 101-104 between rural, suburban, and dense urban areas. We find that 8 [4–16] Gt/year of material flows are due to expansion and maintenance, amounting to 6 [3–10] % of global resource extraction. These translate into 0.36 [0.19–0.69] Gt CO2eq/year, or 1 [0.5–1.9] % of global GHG emissions in 2021. Approximately two-thirds of these flows result from maintenance and replacement of stocks, indicating an important lock-in of resource use due to already existing infrastructure stocks. These findings support the crucial role of improving spatial planning, limiting stock expansion and (sub-)urbanization, to achieve more sustainable resource use and mitigate climate change. تعد الطرق والبنى التحتية للتنقل القائم على السكك الحديدية أساس خدمات التنقل وتدعم العديد من أهداف التنمية المستدامة، ولكنها تحفز أيضًا استخدام المواد وانبعاثات غازات الدفيئة. حتى الآن، لم تقم أي دراسة متسقة لتدفق المخزون بتقييم المخزونات المتراكمة عالميًا من البنى التحتية للتنقل، وتدفقات المواد والانبعاثات المرتبطة بها، وأنماطها المكانية. نقدم نتائج عالمية حول مخزونات المواد لجميع الطرق والبنية التحتية القائمة على السكك الحديدية، بما في ذلك الأنفاق والجسور، ونموذج تدفقات المواد المرتبطة بها وانبعاثاتها المجسدة لعام 2021. يجمع النموذج المتسق لتدفق المخزون بين بيانات خرائط الشوارع المفتوحة من مصادر جماعية مع تصميمات البنية التحتية النموذجية وتركيبات المواد والافتراضات على الأعمار ومعدلات نمو الشبكة، بما في ذلك نطاقات عدم اليقين. نستمد تقديرات المخزون المكانية الصريحة على المستوى الوطني لـ 180 دولة ونحددها بدقة 5 دقائق قوسية، ونستمد تدفقات المواد والانبعاثات المجسدة على المستوى القطري. نجد أن 314 [218-403] جيجا طن من المواد (41 [28–53] طن/غطاء) قد تراكمت في البنية التحتية للتنقل العالمي، ومعظمها في الطرق مثل الركام والأسفلت. يتم توزيع المخزونات بشكل غير متساوٍ بين البلدان، من متوسط 23 [16–30] طن/حد أقصى في البلدان منخفضة الدخل، إلى 130 [89–164] طن/حد أقصى في البلدان مرتفعة الدخل. يختلف التفاوت المكاني لمخزون الفرد لكل منطقة حسب الحجم، من 101 إلى 104 بين المناطق الريفية والضواحي والمناطق الحضرية الكثيفة. نجد أن 8 [4–16] جيجا طن/سنة من تدفقات المواد ترجع إلى التوسع والصيانة، والتي تصل إلى 6 [3–10] ٪ من استخراج الموارد العالمية. تترجم هذه إلى 0.36 [0.19-0.69] جيجا طن من مكافئ ثاني أكسيد الكربون/سنة، أو 1 [0.5–1.9 ]٪ من انبعاثات غازات الدفيئة العالمية في عام 2021. ما يقرب من ثلثي هذه التدفقات ناتجة عن صيانة واستبدال المخزونات، مما يشير إلى قفل مهم في استخدام الموارد بسبب مخزونات البنية التحتية الموجودة بالفعل. تدعم هذه النتائج الدور الحاسم لتحسين التخطيط المكاني، والحد من توسع المخزون والتحضر (الفرعي)، لتحقيق استخدام أكثر استدامة للموارد والتخفيف من تغير المناخ.

This is a comprehensive dataset of the agriculture and food system scenarios co-developed with stakeholders with the agricultural land use model BioBaM-GHG 2.0 and presented in Deliverable 4.2 of the H2020 project UNISECO. It includes sub-national (NUTS1/2-level) data on agricultural production and consumption, land use, greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and agricultural activities, etc. for the base year 2012 and the scenario years 2030 and 2050. The scenarios include a Business as usual case and four scenarios with focus on organic and agro-ecological farming practices in the EU, based on different storylines. Further information is available from the above-mentioned deliverable. A detailed model description is provided in the paper "Exploring the option space for land system futures at regional to global scales: The diagnostic agro-food, land use and greenhouse gas emission model BioBaM-GHG 2.0", in which these scenarios are also presented as an exemplary application of the model BioBaM-GHG 2.0. This work was funded by the ERA-NET SusAn project 101243 AnimalFuture, as well as by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and its funding of the H2020 UNISECO project under grant agreement N°773901.

Electricity infrastructures are crucial for economic prosperity and underpin fundamental energy services. This article provides global datasets on installed power plant capacities, transmission and distribution grid lengths as well as transformer capacities. A country-level dataset on installed electricity generation capacities during 1980 to 2017, comprising 14 types of power plants and technologies, is obtained by combining data from three different online databases. Transmission grid lengths are derived from georeferenced data available from OpenStreetMap, augmented with data from national and international statistics. Data gaps are filled and historical developments estimated by applying a linear regression model. Statistical data on distribution grids lengths are collected for 31 countries that make up almost 50% of the global electricity consumption. Estimates for distribution grid lengths in the remaining countries are again obtained through linear regression. Data on installed transformer capacities are sparsely available from market intelligence reports and specialist journals. For most countries, they are estimated from typical transformer-to-generator ratios, i.e. based on power plant capacities. Global generation capacity expansion since 1980 was dominated by coal-fired (mainly China and India) and gas-fired plants (mainly industrialized countries and Middle East). Solar and wind power accounted for the second and third largest capacity additions since 2010 (after coal-fired plants). The total length of transmission circuits worldwide is estimated at 4.7 million kilometres, and the length of distribution grids between 88 and 104 million km. China accounts for 41% of the expansion of global transmission grids, and 32% of the expansion of distribution grids since 1980. In 2017, China's electricity grids were approximately as large as the grids of all western industrialized countries combined. The globally installed capacity of transformers is estimated between 36 and 45 Teravolt-Ampere, with transmission and distribution transformers accounting for above 40% each, and generator step-up transformers for the rest. The data provided in this article are used for estimating global material stocks in electricity infrastructures in the related research paper [1] and can be used in energy system models, for econometric analyses or development indices on country level and many more purposes.

Electricity infrastructures are key for the provision of fundamental energy services and economic prosperity. Profound knowledge on past development and current stocks of electricity infrastructures is of crucial importance, e.g. for assessing the challenges of decarbonizing the power sector or providing universal access to electricity. By combining data from various sources and through modelling of transmission and distribution infrastructures, we present a global inventory of electricity infrastructures and corresponding material stocks. Greenhouse gas emissions associated with stock-building materials are minor in relation to combustion emissions from conventional power plants. Still, increased awareness of these aspects is warranted due to the high material intensities of some renewable energy technologies and the considerable grid expansion needed to accommodate large shares of intermittent energy sources and ensuring reliable electricity supply for a rising world population.

To date the concept of the bioeconomy—an economy based primarily on biogenic instead of fossil resources—has largely been associated with visions of “green growth” and the advancement of biotechnology and has been framed from within an industrial perspective. However, there is no consensus as to what a bioeconomy should effectively look like, and what type of society it would sustain. In this paper, we identify different types of narratives constructed around this concept and carve out the techno-political implications they convey. We map these narratives on a two-dimensional option space, which allows for a rough classification of narratives and their related imaginaries into four paradigmatic quadrants. We draw the narratives from three different sources: (i) policy documents of national and supra-national authorities; (ii) stakeholder interviews; and (iii) scenarios built in a biophysical modelling exercise. Our analysis shows that there is a considerable gap between official policy papers and visions supported by stakeholders. At least in the case of Austria there is also a gap between the official strategies and the option space identified through biophysical modelling. These gaps testify to the highly political nature of the concept of the bioeconomy and the diverging visions of society arising from it.

Abstract The transformation towards a low-carbon bioeconomy until 2050 is one of the main strategic long-term targets of the European Union. This work presents transformation scenarios for the case of Austria with GHG reduction to about 20% of Kyoto baseline. The scenarios are developed with an optimization model integrating the energy sector, land use and biomass flows. Focus is on investigating possible developments in domestic biomass supply and use. Biomass is crucial for (largely) decarbonising the energy system and replacing fossil-based and energyintensive materials. Domestic biomass use (dry mass) increases by 32% in an 'intensive' and 11% in an 'alternative' transformation scenario, while total energy consumption decreases by 40%. Transformation to a low-carbon bioeconomy could be accomplished without additional biomass imports.