• Energy Research

Several greenhouse gas removal technologies (GGRTs), also called negative emissions technologies (NET) have been proposed to help meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets. However, there are many uncertainties in the estimation of their effective greenhouse gas (GHG) removal potentials, caused by their different levels of technological development. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been proposed as one effective methodology to holistically assess the potential of different GGRT removal approaches but no common framework is currently available for benchmarking and policy development. In this article, challenges for LCA are reviewed and discussed together with some alternative approaches for assessment of GGRTs. In particular, GGRTs pose challenges with regards to the functional unit, the system boundary of the LCA assessment, and the timing of emissions. The need to account within LCA of GGRTs for broader implications which involve environmental impacts, economic, social and political drivers is highlighted. A set of recommendations for LCA of GGRTs are proposed for a better assessment of the GGRTs and better accounting of their carbon removal potentials to meet the targets established within the Paris Agreement.

This article reviews recent scientific progress, relating to four major systems that could exhibit threshold behaviour: ice sheets, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), tropical forests and ecosystem responses to ocean acidification. The focus is on advances since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). The most significant developments in each component are identified by synthesizing input from multiple experts from each field. For ice sheets, some degree of irreversible loss (timescales of millennia) of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have already begun, but the rate and eventual magnitude of this irreversible loss is uncertain. The observed AMOC overturning has decreased from 2004–2014, but it is unclear at this stage whether this is forced or is internal variability. New evidence from experimental and natural droughts has given greater confidence that tropical forests are adversely affected by drought. The ecological and socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification are expected to greatly increase over the range from today’s annual value of around 400, up to 650 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere (reached around 2070 under RCP8.5), with the rapid development of aragonite undersaturation at high latitudes affecting calcifying organisms. Tropical coral reefs are vulnerable to the interaction of ocean acidification and temperature rise, and the rapidity of those changes, with severe losses and risks to survival at 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels. Across the four systems studied, however, quantitative evidence for a difference in risk between 1.5 and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels is limited.

MCCIP Science Review 2013, 34-48

Abstract Background Ocean-related options (OROs) to mitigate and adapt to climate change are receiving increasing attention from practitioners, decision-makers, and researchers. In order to guide future ORO development and implementation, a catalogue of scientific evidence addressing outcomes related to different ORO types is critical. However, until now, such a synthesis has been hindered by the large size of the evidence base. Here, we detail a protocol using a machine learning-based approach to systematically map the extent and distribution of academic evidence relevant to the development, implementation, and outcomes of OROs. Method To produce this systematic map, literature searches will be conducted in English across two bibliographic databases using a string of search terms relating to the ocean, climate change, and OROs. A sample of articles from the resulting de-duplicated corpus will be manually screened at the title and abstract level for inclusion or exclusion against a set of predefined eligibility criteria in order to select all relevant literature on marine and coastal socio-ecological systems, the type of ORO and its outcomes. Descriptive metadata on the type and location of intervention, study methodology, and outcomes will be coded from the included articles in the sample. This sample of screening and coding decisions will be used to train a machine learning model that will be used to estimate these labels for all the remaining unseen publications. The results will be reported in a narrative synthesis summarising key trends, knowledge gaps, and knowledge clusters.

The Paris Agreement target of limiting global surface warming to 1.5-2°C compared to pre-industrial levels by 2100 will still heavily impact the ocean. While ambitious mitigation and adaptation are both needed, the ocean provides major opportunities for action to reduce climate change globally and its impacts on vital ecosystems and ecosystem services. A comprehensive and systematic assessment of 13 global- and local-scale, ocean-based measures was performed to help steer the development and implementation of technologies and actions toward a sustainable outcome. We show that (1) all measures have tradeoffs and multiple criteria must be used for a comprehensive assessment of their potential, (2) greatest benefit is derived by combining global and local solutions, some of which could be implemented or scaled-up immediately, (3) some measures are too uncertain to be recommended yet, (4) political consistency must be achieved through effective cross-scale governance mechanisms, (5) scientific effort must focus on effectiveness, co-benefits, disbenefits, and costs of poorly tested as well as new and emerging measures.