• Energy Research

The significant spike in global energy prices induced by the Russian-Ukrainian (RU) conflict is perceived as highly uncertain that may rise household living costs and adversely affect Sustainable Development Goals such as poverty elimination. However, the impacts on human wellbeing are entirely obscured by conventional economic analyses. Using the input-output price model and a human needs framework, we assess the impact of energy price shocks caused by the RU conflict on eight dimensions of human needs in 49 countries/regions. Our findings show that the non-material dimension Creation and the material dimension Protection are the most affected human needs globally, with declines of 3.7%–8.5% and 3.6%–8.4%, respectively. Households in BRICS countries are hit hardest on these human needs (2.0-2.2 times the global average) owing to higher price increases and higher energy-dependent consumption patterns. The human need satisfaction of low-income groups is not only severely affected, but also the poorer the country in which they reside, the more serious the decline of their satisfaction, while there is no such problem for higher income groups. Our findings underscore the need to consider both material and frequently overlooked non-material dimensions of wellbeing when designing targeted policies to protect the vulnerable from energy price shocks.

China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation, and local authorities need more city-specific information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies. This study provides the most comprehensive CO2 emission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to 2019. The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production. We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces. The results show that 38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least five years and another 21 cities also have emission decline, but passively. The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by efficiency improvements and structural changes in energy use, while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss. We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline, and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals. Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.

Faced with an increasing amount of industrial solid waste (ISW) in the process of rapid industrialization, it is indispensable to carry out ISW metabolism study to realize source and waste reduction. In this study, a new composite waste input-output (WIO) model is developed to examine ISW production and production relationships among different sectors. In particular, the extended methods of network control analysis and network utility analysis are used in the ecological network analysis under two ISW scenarios (i.e. common industrial solid waste (CISW) and hazardous waste (HW) scenarios). Furthermore, comprehensive utilization analysis is first developed to evaluate the ISW utilization level and to guide the planning of sectors with large proportion of ISW production. A case study of Guangdong, China shows that indirect flow analysis can be used to understand the internal ISW metabolism structure. The mining sectors produce a large amount of direct ISW and perform a low level of comprehensive utilization, but they have mutualism relationships with other sectors. The energy transformation (EH) sector in the CISW system has high direct generation intensity and plays as a main controller. The situation of paper manufacturing (MP) sector in HW system is similar to that of EH. Therefore, it is expected that the results of this study will provide scientific foundations for these sectors to formulate future ISW reduction policies.

Carbon emissions embodied in interprovincial trade (CEE-IT) are closely related with the environmental responsibility allocation. Besides the perspective of administrative division, more rational and effective clusters based on provincial characteristics is more conducive for understanding the regional emission reduction linkages and simplifying the steps of responsibility determination. To provide a reasonable management of CEs transference mitigation in China, this study develops a provincial clustering scale CEE-IT model through three-scale accountings (i.e., aggregated-scale, consumption-scale and income-scale analysis). Specifically, 30 provinces are aggregated into several new regions with similar characteristics. Carbon emissions from different energy sources are first considered to distinguish and specify different emission reduction modes. The input output analysis (IOA) and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) are applied to quantify the embodied interprovincial carbon emissions and the relative contributions of socio-economic factors at the sector-level of disaggregation and aggregation, respectively. Three-scale accountings are innovatively employed into EEBT model to deeply analyze the emissions along China’s domestic inter-regional supply chains for identifying regional production, consumption and income-based emission responsibilities. Based on three accounting perspectives, the results provide suggestions for coordinated emission reduction across regions (including specific provinces) from the overall and decomposition levels. It shows that cutting the imports of mining sector for all regions could reduce emissions from the supply side. Rural household consumption and fixed capital formation are the major drivers for Ⅳ region from the consumption side. Technological innovations in Ⅲ region have reduced carbon emissions by 55.2% and contributed 159 Mt reductions from 2007 to 2012. Ⅲ region is insensitive to energy types and the utilization of crude oil in Ⅰ region limit the improvement of its system efficiency. Importing large quantities of emission-intensive products from Beijing and Jiangsu is a cause of high income-based emissions in Ⅱ region.

The Russia–Ukraine conflict has triggered an energy crisis that directly affected household energy costs for heating, cooling and mobility and indirectly pushed up the costs of other goods and services throughout global supply chains. Here we bridge a global multi-regional input–output database with detailed household-expenditure data to model the direct and indirect impacts of increased energy prices on 201 expenditure groups in 116 countries. On the basis of a set of energy price scenarios, we show that total energy costs of households would increase by 62.6–112.9%, contributing to a 2.7–4.8% increase in household expenditures. The energy cost burdens across household groups vary due to differences in supply chain structure, consumption patterns and energy needs. Under the cost-of-living pressures, an additional 78 million–141 million people will potentially be pushed into extreme poverty. Targeted energy assistance can help vulnerable households during this crisis. We emphasize support for increased costs of necessities, especially for food.

This paper aims to assess the emission reduction potential of combined mitigation technologies in China's cement industry, thus transitioning towards carbon neutrality through a suitable technology portfolio and exploring a low-carbon pathway. The G-LEAP model is constructed for future carbon emission projection, incorporating the cement demand projection and technology application. The pathways based on different technology portfolios are developed to estimate the CO2 emission trajectory of China's cement industry. We maximize the utilization of currently available technologies and assume a high level of innovative technology diffusion rate in the integrated mitigation pathway to explore the maximum abatement potential of the cement industry. The result shows that short-term mitigation mainly relies on improving energy efficiency and alternative low-carbon fuels, which would contribute 9–12% and 17–22% of the cumulative emissions reduction in the integrated mitigation pathway compared to a frozen scenario. Alternative clinkers can significantly reduce process-related emissions, but the potential is determined by the availability of raw materials, which would contribute 30–39% of the cumulative emission reduction. Post- and oxygen-combustion capture is expected to be deployed by 2030 and contribute about 28–44% to cumulative emission reduction. The technology portfolio in the integrated mitigation pathway would reduce China's cement CO2 emissions by 63–73% compared to the frozen scenario, and the remainder of CO2 emission would be 300–400 Mt in 2060, which will need the technological innovation and new growth horizons, such as carbon sink approaches or carbon trading.

In the past a few years, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has significantly changed global emission patterns and increased the challenges in emission reduction. However, a comprehensive analysis of the most recent trends of China's carbon emissions has not been conducted due to a lack of up-to-date emission accounts by regions and sectors. This study compiles the latest CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces during the epidemic (2020−2021), following the administrative-territorial approach from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Our inventories cover energy-related emissions from 17 types of fossil fuel combustion and cement production across 47 economic sectors. To provide a holistic view of emission patterns, we esitamted consumption-based emissions in China. We find that the COVID-19 epidemic led to a 50% reduction in the growth rate of territorial emissions in 2020 compared to 2019. This trend then reversed in 2021 as lockdown measures gradually relaxed. Our study reveals the impact of the rapid expansion of exports, driven by epidemic prevention materials and “stay-at-home economy” products on widening the differences between territorial- and consumption-based emissions. Our study offers a timely blueprint for designing strategies towards carbon peak and neutrality, especially in the context of sustainable recoveries and carbon mitigation post-pandemic.

Energy use and CO2 emissions are inextricably linked. Energy utilization leads to an increase in CO2 emissions, which will in turn limit the formulation of energy policies and stability of energy systems. A provincial-scale Energy-Carbon Nexus Model is established to shed insight into the complicated system interactions among provinces. Specifically, different power generation types are considered to quantify the inter-provincial transfers of CO2 embodied in electricity transmission through the Multiregional Input-Output Analysis. Ecological Network Analysis is used to describe the integral mutual relationships between provinces and distinguish the control intensity of each province from different CO2 flows directions. Five new Energy-carbon emission factors are first performed to provide a more accurate assessment of the province's emissions capacity from different perspectives. Based on the theoretical basis of energy-carbon nexus, the emission reduction simulations considering energy substitution policy can be conducted to forecast the changes of provincial responsibility under different interventions. Results show that some provinces (e.g., Beijing) depend heavily on the supply of other provinces because of their low self-sufficiency rate in electricity, while some provinces (e.g., Guangdong) have high self-sufficiency rate and still emit more CO2 to other provinces to promote their own development. The importance of East China to the system cannot be ignored, but it should also undertake more responsibility for reducing emissions. However, the pace of development in Shandong will slow down because it mainly relies on coal power generation to indirectly promote the development of other provinces. What's more, importing electricity to achieve emission reduction may result in a rebound in indirect emissions and have a negative impact on the region's use of its own energy resources. This paper offers a new way to reveal details of energy-carbon interrelations across provinces and the achievements could provide references for formulating CO2 reduction policies of China electricity trading.