• Energy Research

Rural people, particularly in developing nations, rely on livestock as a key source of income. In Pakistan, rural people depend profoundly on buffalo, cows, sheep, and goats to earn their livelihood. The systems of agricultural production are at risk because of the negative effects of climate change. It badly affects production and quality of milk and meat, animal health, productivity, breeding, feed, and rangelands of livestock production. Climate change risks assessment and adaptation are required to minimize losses from these effects, which are not just technical but also socioeconomically significant. Hence, based on data collected from 1080 livestock herders using a multistage sampling technique in Punjab, Pakistan this study aims to assess perceived impact of climate change on livestock production and to assess coping strategies. In addition, determinants of adaptation strategies and their effects on livestock production was also estimated. Binary Logistic Regression was used to identify the drivers of adaptation strategies. In addition, Multi Group Analysis (MGA) in Partial Least Squares Path Modelling (PLS-PM) was applied to compare adapter and non-adapter of climate change adaptation strategies. Findings indicated that there are spread of various diseases to livestock due to adverse effects of climatic variability. There was reduction in the availability of the livestock's feed. Moreover, competition of water and land resources of livestock was also increasing. Low production efficiency resulted in decline of milk yield and meat production. Likewise, mortality of livestock, increased in still births, reduction in reproductive performance, decline in animal fertility, longevity, and general fitness, decreased birthing rates, rises in age at foremost calving in beef cattle was also prevailing. There were different adaptation policies used by farmers to handle with climate change and these were influenced by several demographic, socioeconomic, and agronomic aspects. Findings indicated that nexus of risk perception, adaptation plans and their determinants are beneficial to reduce the consequences of climatic variability and it improve the wellbeing of the herders. Risk management system may be created to protect livestock against losses caused by extreme weather events by providing awareness regarding influence of climate change on livestock. Easy and cheaper credit should be provided to the farmers to manage with the vulnerabilities of climate change.

Climate change, conventional agricultural management practices, and increasing water scarcity pose a major threat to agricultural production and biodiversity as well as environmental sustainability. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is recognized as an efficient, sustainable, and feasible agricultural system that plays a vital role in addressing the potential impacts of climate change in Pakistan. First-hand information was collected from 450 farm households in 24 villages from Okara, Sahiwal, and Khanewal irrigation divisions, having various wheat-based cropping systems of Pakistan. This includes rice-wheat (RW), maize-wheat (MW), and cotton-wheat (CW) cropping systems in the Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system. This study estimated and compared the sustainability and efficiency analysis of CSA and conventional agricultural practices. This study also estimated the impact of water-smart practices of the CSA, technical training, and groundwater quality on agricultural production by using production function and bootstrap truncated regression. The findings of this study revealed that adopters of CSA of the wheat-based cropping systems have higher economic benefits and improved resource use efficiencies compared to the conventional farmers. The findings of the study also revealed the increased efficiency of CSA adopters over other two systems in CW cropping system. The water-smart practices of CSA, access to credit, technical training, use of groundwater of varying quality, and other inputs also showed variations in the agricultural production and resource use efficiency. It has been concluded that farmers can earn more profit, save inputs (such as water), and increase their production by adopting water-smart practices of CSA. Hence, the government and other relevant institutions should devise and implement policies that adequately addressed the importance and enhance the use of water-smart practices of CSA in Punjab and beyond.

Cotton is the second largest crop of Pakistan in terms of area after wheat and is being suffered by multiple shocks over the time due to conventional agricultural management practices, climate change, and market failures. Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) was introduced by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) in 2010, as an innovative cleaner production alternative to conventional farming that aimed at increasing the efficiency of natural resources, resilience, and productivity of agricultural production system, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The adverse effects of climate change on cotton production at the farm and regional level can be minimized by using CSA practices and technologies. The present study investigated the financial performance and explored the impact of CSA through sustainable water use management on cotton production in Lower Bari Doab Canal (LBDC) irrigation system of Punjab, Pakistan by using Cobb-Douglas production function. The adopters of CSA in cotton cultivation were identified by conducting six focus group discussions. Data were collected through well-structured questionnaire from 133 adopters of CSA and 65 conventional cotton growers for the cropping season 2016–2017. It was found that water-smart (raising crops on bed, laser land levelling, conjunctive use of water and drainage management), energy-smart (minimum tillage), carbon-smart (less use of chemicals) and knowledge-smart (crop rotation and improved varieties i.e., tolerant to drought, flood and heat/cold stresses) practices and technologies of CSA were adopted by the cotton farmers in the study area. Most of the farmers were of the view that they are adopting CSA practices and technologies due to the limited supply of canal water, climate change, drought-prone, massive groundwater extraction, rapidly declining groundwater table and increasing soil salinity over the time. Results revealed that uniform germination, higher yield and financial returns, the concentration of inputs and increase in resource use efficiency are the main advantages of CSA. The econometric analysis showed that implementation of CSA practices and technologies as judicious use of water and fertilizer, groundwater quality, access to extension services, and appropriate method and time of picking have a significant impact on the gross value of cotton product (GVP). The findings of the study would be helpful for policy makers to formulate policies that can minimize farmer’s financial burden to adopt CSA technologies and implement for scaling out in Punjab and beyond.

Increasing population and augmented demand for food have put burden on water resources, crops, and livestock for future sustainability. Pakistan is facing difficulties of water shortage, low crops and livestock productivity, meagre livelihood, and intensive food insecurity. Hence, this study was conducted in Pakistan to explore the nexus of climate change, irrigation water, agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security. The study is based on primary data of 1080 farmers gathered from 12 districts of the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat cropping systems. A partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to compute the nexus. Findings of path analysis indicated that climate change had a significant negative impact on irrigation water, crops, livestock, rural livelihood, and food security in both cropping systems. There was positive relationship between surface water and crops. In addition, groundwater and crops were also positively and significantly correlated. The impact of crop was positive and significant on rural livelihood and food security. Furthermore, rural livelihood and food security were positively and significantly influenced by livestock. Moreover, there was positive relationship between rural livelihood and food security. The cotton-wheat cropping system was more affected by climatic and natural hazards than rice-wheat cropping system. Interconnectivity among nexus components and their contribution to rural livelihood and food security indicate that government, policymakers, and other concerned stakeholders should effectively improve food security policies under climatic and natural hazards. Moreover, it helps in examining adverse impacts of hazards induced by climate change on nexus components, leading to the designing and adoption of sustainable climate change policies. The study's originality lies in its ability to provide a inclusive and integrated pathway of the interconnections and interdependencies among these variables, identifying key drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan. Moreover, outcome of the study has policy implications for developing sustainable policies and strategies to improve sustainable food security in the country.

This study examines the technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies of the cotton-wheat farming system in Punjab, Pakistan. It also investigates the determinants of these efficiencies using a non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Technical, allocative, and economic inefficiency scores are separately regressed on socioeconomic and farm-specific variables to identify the sources of inefficiency using a Tobit regression model. The mean technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies calculated for the system were 0.87, 0.44, and 0.37, respectively. Our results indicate that years of schooling and the number of contacts with extension agents have a negative impact on the inefficiency of cotton-wheat farming in Punjab.

In the face of declining water resources and low agricultural water productivity, it is vital to increase agricultural production efficiency and efficiency of water usage. The efficacy of irrigating rice fields in Nigeria is evaluated here using a stochastic frontier analysis. This is a parametric frontier that is assumed to have half-normal distribution, allowing the model to be separated from normal errors in a composite error model. Samples of 382 surveys were used in the study; out of the total number, 361 surveys were retrieved and used for the analysis. The analytical tools used in the study are: gross margin, water productivity analysis, and stochastic frontier approach. The results indicate an average yield of 4.69 and 4.94 tons/hectare, and net farm income of $415 and $364 for the farmers using canal irrigation and farmers using tube wells, respectively. The results also showed physical and economic water productivity of 0.51 kg/m3 and $0.11/m3 for canal water users, and 0.568 kg/m3 and $0.10/m3 for tube well users. The canal water users had a mean irrigation water use efficiency of 0.76, compared to 0.70 for the tube well users. The study recommends that effective extension services and their coverage be enhanced to provide adequate training to rice farmers on water use efficiency and the transfer of innovations and farming technologies to farmers.

This study aimed to determine the farmers' perceived impact of climate change on irrigation water and the adaptation measure adopted to mitigate its adverse effects. A binary logistic regression model was used to identified factors affecting the selection of adaptation measures. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to compute the benefits of adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in two major cropping systems, i.e., the Cotton Wheat Cropping System (CWCS) and Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan, using primary data of 1080 farmers collected through a multistage sampling technique. Due to climate change there was deterioration in surface water and groundwater quality in CWCS than in RWCS. The farmer uses different adaptation strategies like water harvesting, crop diversification, increasing use of irrigation, laser land leveling to save water, making ridges, building a water harvesting scheme, changing irrigation time, high-efficiency irrigation system and water-saving technologies. Adaptation strategies used by farmer were affected by different socioeconomic, demographic and agronomic factors. Results of the binary logistic regression showed that age, farming experience, education, household size, farm size, tenancy status of owner, access to farm credit, information on weather forecasting, soil quality, tube well ownership, remittances, off-farm income, agricultural extension services provided for irrigation water, and information on climatic and natural hazards played a significant role in the selection of adaptation strategies for irrigation water. Results of PLS-SEM showed that adaptation strategies mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on irrigation water. Farmers' awareness regarding the impact of climatic variability on irrigation water should be enhanced. Availability of credit to farmers should be improved on easy terms to facilitate the adoption of interventions for better irrigation water management. It is high time for policymakers to design effective, affordable, and workable policies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities against irrigation water to improve the wellbeing of the farmers.

En raison de la dynamique climatique mondiale et régionale depuis quelques décennies, la productivité agricole, les moyens de subsistance ruraux et la sécurité alimentaire ont été gravement affectés au Pakistan. Cette étude a été menée au Pendjab, au Pakistan, pour explorer la compréhension par les agriculteurs des impacts du changement climatique, des stratégies d'adaptation, des déterminants et des avantages pour l'agriculture en utilisant les données de 1 080 répondants. Les risques perçus par les agriculteurs dans le système de culture du riz et du blé et le système de culture du coton et du blé étaient l'infestation de mauvaises herbes, l'augmentation du taux de semences, les semences de mauvaise qualité, l'infestation de maladies et de ravageurs, le changement de modèle de culture, l'augmentation de l'utilisation des intrants, la diminution de l'intensité et de la productivité des cultures, la diminution de la fertilité du sol, l'augmentation de la fréquence d'irrigation et l'augmentation du temps de récolte. Pour atténuer les influences négatives du changement climatique, les stratégies d'adaptation utilisées par les agriculteurs étaient la gestion des cultures et des variétés, des sols et de l'eau d'irrigation, la diversification des systèmes de production agricole et des sources de revenus, la gestion des engrais et du temps des opérations agricoles, l'adaptation spatiale, l'accès aux mesures de réduction des risques et aux actifs financiers, l'adoption de nouvelles technologies, le soutien institutionnel et les connaissances autochtones. En outre, les résultats de la régression logistique binaire indiquent que les stratégies d'adaptation sont affectées par différents facteurs tels que l'âge, l'éducation, la taille de la famille, les revenus non agricoles, les envois de fonds, l'accès au crédit, les informations sur les risques climatiques et naturels, les informations sur les prévisions météorologiques, la superficie des terres, l'expérience des cultures et de l'élevage, le statut locatif, la propriété des puits tubulaires, l'inventaire du bétail, l'accès aux informations sur le marché, les services de vulgarisation agricole et la distance du marché des intrants/extrants agricoles. Il existe une différence significative entre les adaptateurs et les non-adaptateurs. Le système de gestion des risques peut être créé pour protéger les cultures contre les défaillances causées par des événements météorologiques extrêmes. Il est nécessaire de développer des variétés de cultures à la fois à haut rendement et résistantes au changement climatique. En outre, les modèles de culture devraient être révisés pour lutter contre les effets du changement climatique. Pour améliorer le niveau de vie des agriculteurs, il est nécessaire de fournir des services de vulgarisation adéquats et un nombre plus important de facilités d'investissement. Ces mesures aideront les agriculteurs à maintenir leur niveau de vie et leur sécurité alimentaire à long terme pour s'adapter aux effets du changement climatique en fonction des différentes zones de culture. Debido a la dinámica climática mundial y regional durante un par de décadas, la productividad agrícola, los medios de vida rurales y la seguridad alimentaria se han visto gravemente afectados en Pakistán. Este estudio se realizó en Punjab, Pakistán, para explorar la comprensión de los agricultores sobre los impactos del cambio climático, las estrategias de adaptación, los determinantes y los beneficios en la agricultura utilizando datos de 1080 encuestados. Los riesgos percibidos por los agricultores en el sistema de cultivo de arroz-trigo y el sistema de cultivo de algodón-trigo fueron infestación de malezas, aumento de la tasa de semillas, semillas de baja calidad, infestación de enfermedades y plagas de cultivos, cambio del patrón de cultivo, aumento del uso de insumos, disminución de la intensidad y productividad de los cultivos, disminución de la fertilidad del suelo, aumento de la frecuencia de riego y aumento del tiempo de cosecha. Para paliar las influencias adversas del cambio climático, las estrategias de adaptación utilizadas por los agricultores fueron el manejo de cultivos y variedades, el suelo y el agua de riego, la diversificación de los sistemas de producción agrícola y las fuentes de sustento, el manejo de fertilizantes y el tiempo de operación de las granjas, la adaptación espacial, el acceso a medidas de reducción de riesgos y activos financieros, la adopción de nuevas tecnologías, el apoyo institucional y el conocimiento indígena. Además, los resultados de la Regresión Logística Binaria indican que las estrategias de adaptación se ven afectadas por diferentes factores como la edad, la educación, el tamaño de la familia, los ingresos fuera de la granja, las remesas, el acceso al crédito, la información sobre los peligros climáticos y naturales, la información sobre el pronóstico del tiempo, la superficie de tierra, la experiencia de los cultivos y la cría de ganado, el estado de tenencia, la propiedad de los pozos tubulares, el inventario de ganado, el acceso a la información del mercado, los servicios de extensión agrícola y la distancia del mercado de insumos/productos agrícolas. Existe una diferencia significativa entre adaptadores y no adaptadores. El sistema de gestión de riesgos puede crearse para proteger los cultivos contra las fallas causadas por fenómenos meteorológicos extremos. Existe la necesidad de desarrollar variedades de cultivos que sean de alto rendimiento y resistentes al cambio climático. Además, los patrones de cultivo deben revisarse para combatir los efectos del cambio climático. Para mejorar el nivel de vida de los agricultores, es necesario proporcionar servicios de extensión adecuados y un número más significativo de instalaciones de inversión. Estas medidas ayudarán a los agricultores a mantener su nivel de vida y su seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo para adaptarse a los efectos del cambio climático en función de las diversas zonas de cultivo. Due to global and regional climatic dynamics for a couple of decades, agricultural productivity, rural livelihood, and food security have been badly affected in Pakistan. This study was conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the farmers' understanding of the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, determinants, and benefits on agriculture using data from 1080 respondents. Perceived risks by the farmers in the rice-wheat cropping system and the cotton-wheat cropping system were weed infestation, seed rate augmented, low-quality seeds, infestation of crop diseases and pests, change of cropping pattern, increase of input use, decrease of cropping intensity and productivity, decreasing soil fertility, increasing irrigation frequency, and increase of harvesting time. To alleviate the adverse influences of climate change, the adaptation strategies used by farmers were management of crop and variety, soil and irrigation water, diversification of agriculture production systems and livelihood sources, management of fertilizer and farm operations time, spatial adaptation, access to risk reduction measures and financial assets, adoption of new technologies, institutional support, and indigenous knowledge. Moreover, the results of Binary Logistic Regression indicate that adaptation strategies are affected by different factors like age, education, household family size, off-farm income, remittances, credit access, information on climatic and natural hazards, information on weather forecasting, land acreage, the experience of growing crops and rearing of livestock, tenancy status, tube well ownership, livestock inventory, access to market information, agricultural extension services, and distance from agricultural input/output market. There is a significant difference between adapters and nonadapters. The risk management system may be created to protect crops against failures caused by extreme weather events. There is a need to develop crop varieties that are both high yielding and resistant to climate change. Moreover, cropping patterns should be revised to combat the effects of climate change. To enhance farmers' standard of living, it is necessary to provide adequate extension services and a more significant number of investment facilities. These measures will assist farmers in maintaining their standard of living and food security over the long term to adapt to the effects of climate change based on various cropping zones. بسبب الديناميكيات المناخية العالمية والإقليمية لبضعة عقود، تأثرت الإنتاجية الزراعية وسبل العيش الريفية والأمن الغذائي بشدة في باكستان. أجريت هذه الدراسة في البنجاب، باكستان، لاستكشاف فهم المزارعين لآثار تغير المناخ، واستراتيجيات التكيف، والمحددات، والفوائد على الزراعة باستخدام بيانات من 1080 مجيباً. كانت المخاطر المتصورة من قبل المزارعين في نظام زراعة الأرز والقمح ونظام زراعة القطن والقمح هي الإصابة بالأعشاب الضارة، وزيادة معدل البذور، والبذور منخفضة الجودة، والإصابة بأمراض المحاصيل والآفات، وتغيير نمط المحاصيل، وزيادة استخدام المدخلات، وانخفاض كثافة المحاصيل والإنتاجية، وانخفاض خصوبة التربة، وزيادة وتيرة الري، وزيادة وقت الحصاد. للتخفيف من الآثار السلبية لتغير المناخ، كانت استراتيجيات التكيف التي يستخدمها المزارعون هي إدارة المحاصيل والتنوع، ومياه التربة والري، وتنويع نظم الإنتاج الزراعي ومصادر كسب العيش، وإدارة وقت عمليات الأسمدة والمزارع، والتكيف المكاني، والوصول إلى تدابير الحد من المخاطر والأصول المالية، واعتماد تكنولوجيات جديدة، والدعم المؤسسي، والمعارف الأصلية. علاوة على ذلك، تشير نتائج الانحدار اللوجستي الثنائي إلى أن استراتيجيات التكيف تتأثر بعوامل مختلفة مثل العمر، والتعليم، وحجم الأسرة، والدخل خارج المزرعة، والتحويلات المالية، والوصول إلى الائتمان، ومعلومات عن المخاطر المناخية والطبيعية، ومعلومات عن التنبؤ بالطقس، ومساحة الأراضي، وتجربة زراعة المحاصيل وتربية الماشية، وحالة الإيجار، وملكية بئر الأنبوب، وجرد الماشية، والوصول إلى معلومات السوق، وخدمات الإرشاد الزراعي، والبعد عن سوق المدخلات/المخرجات الزراعية. هناك فرق كبير بين المحولات وغير المحولات. يمكن إنشاء نظام إدارة المخاطر لحماية المحاصيل من الأعطال الناجمة عن الظواهر الجوية القاسية. هناك حاجة إلى تطوير أصناف محاصيل عالية الغلة ومقاومة لتغير المناخ. علاوة على ذلك، ينبغي مراجعة أنماط المحاصيل لمكافحة آثار تغير المناخ. لتعزيز مستوى معيشة المزارعين، من الضروري توفير خدمات إرشادية كافية وعدد أكبر من المرافق الاستثمارية. وستساعد هذه التدابير المزارعين على الحفاظ على مستوى معيشتهم وأمنهم الغذائي على المدى الطويل للتكيف مع آثار تغير المناخ على أساس مناطق المحاصيل المختلفة.