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The assessment of voltage stability margins is a promising direction for wide-area monitoring systems. Accurate monitoring architectures for long-term voltage instability are typically centralized and lack scalability, while completely decentralized approaches relying on local measurements tend towards inaccuracy. Here we present distributed linear algorithms for the online computation of voltage collapse sensitivity indices. The computations are collectively performed by processors embedded at each bus in the smart grid, using synchronized phasor measurements and communication of voltage phasors between neighboring buses. Our algorithms provably converge to the proper index values, as would be calculated using centralized information, but but do not require any central decision maker for coordination. Modifications of the algorithms to account for generator reactive power limits are discussed. We illustrate the effectiveness of our designs with a case study of the New England 39 bus system. 10 pages, submitted for publication

Whether marine fish will grow differently in future high pCO2 environments remains surprisingly uncertain. Long-term and whole-life cycle effects are particularly unknown, because such experiments are logistically challenging, space demanding, exclude long-lived species, and require controlled, restricted feeding regimes—otherwise increased consumption could mask potential growth effects. Here, we report on repeated, long-term, food-controlled experiments to rear large populations (>4,000 individuals total) of the experimental model and ecologically important forage fish Menidia menidia (Atlantic silverside) under contrasting temperature (17°, 24°, and 28°C) and pCO2 conditions (450 vs. 2,200 μatm) from fertilization to a third of this annual species' life span. Quantile analyses of trait distributions showed mostly negative effects of high pCO2 on long-term growth. At 17°C and 28°C, but not at 24°C, high pCO2 fish were significantly shorter [17°C: -5 to -9%; 28°C: -3%] and weighed less [17°C: -6 to -18%; 28°C: -8%] compared to ambient pCO2 fish. Reductions in fish weight were smaller than in length, which is why high pCO2 fish at 17°C consistently exhibited a higher Fulton's k (weight/length ratio). Notably, it took more than 100 days of rearing for statistically significant length differences to emerge between treatment populations, showing that cumulative, long-term CO2 effects could exist elsewhere but are easily missed by short experiments. Long-term rearing had another benefit: it allowed sexing the surviving fish, thereby enabling rare sex-specific analyses of trait distributions under contrasting CO2 environments. We found that female silversides grew faster than males, but there was no interaction between CO2 and sex, indicating that males and females were similarly affected by high pCO2. Because Atlantic silversides are known to exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, we also analyzed sex ratios, revealing no evidence for CO2-dependent sex determination in this species. In order to allow full comparability with other ocean acidification data sets, the R package seacarb (Gattuso et al, 2020) was used to compute a complete and consistent set of carbonate system variables, as described by Nisumaa et al. (2010). In this dataset the original values were archived in addition with the recalculated parameters (see related PI). The date of carbonate chemistry calculation by seacarb is 2020-12-25.

Structural and physiological changes that occur as trees grow taller are associated with increased hydraulic constraints on leaf gas exchange, yet it is unclear if leaf-level constraints influence whole-tree growth as trees approach their maximum size. We examined variation in leaf physiology, leaf area to sapwood area ratio (L/S), and annual aboveground growth across a range of tree heights in Eucalyptus regnans. Leaf photosynthetic capacity did not differ among upper crown leaves of individuals 61.1-92.4 m tall. Maximum daily and integrated diurnal stomatal conductance (g s) averaged 36 and 34% higher, respectively, in upper crown leaves of ~60-m-tall, 80-year-old trees than in ~90-m-tall, 300-year-old trees, with larger differences observed on days with a high vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Greater stomatal regulation in taller trees resulted in similar minimum daily leaf water potentials (Ψ L) in shorter and taller trees over a broad range of VPDs. The long-term stomatal limitation on photosynthesis, as inferred from leaf δ (13)C composition, was also greater in taller trees. The δ (13)C of wood indicated that the bulk of photosynthesis used to fuel wood production in the main trunk and branches occurred in the upper crown. L/S increased with tree height, especially after accounting for size-independent variation in crown structure across 27 trees up to 99.8 m tall. Despite greater stomatal limitation of leaf photosynthesis in taller trees, total L explained 95% of the variation in annual aboveground biomass growth among 15 trees measured for annual biomass growth increment in 2006. Our results support a theoretical model proposing that, in the face of increasing hydraulic constraints with height, whole-tree growth is maximized by a resource trade-off that increases L to maximize light capture rather than by reducing L/S to sustain g s.

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and its mole fraction has more than doubled since the preindustrial era. Fossil fuel extraction and use are among the largest anthropogenic sources of CH4 emissions, but the precise magnitude of these contributions is a subject of debate. Carbon-14 in CH4 (14CH4) can be used to distinguish between fossil (14C-free) CH4 emissions and contemporaneous biogenic sources; however, poorly constrained direct 14CH4 emissions from nuclear reactors have complicated this approach since the middle of the 20th century. Moreover, the partitioning of total fossil CH4 emissions (presently 172 to 195 teragrams CH4 per year) between anthropogenic and natural geological sources (such as seeps and mud volcanoes) is under debate; emission inventories suggest that the latter account for about 40 to 60 teragrams CH4 per year. Geological emissions were less than 15.4 teragrams CH4 per year at the end of the Pleistocene, about 11,600 years ago, but that period is an imperfect analogue for present-day emissions owing to the large terrestrial ice sheet cover, lower sea level and extensive permafrost. Here we use preindustrial-era ice core 14CH4 measurements to show that natural geological CH4 emissions to the atmosphere were about 1.6 teragrams CH4 per year, with a maximum of 5.4 teragrams CH4 per year (95 per cent confidence limit)—an order of magnitude lower than the currently used estimates. This result indicates that anthropogenic fossil CH4 emissions are underestimated by about 38 to 58 teragrams CH4 per year, or about 25 to 40 per cent of recent estimates. Our record highlights the human impact on the atmosphere and climate, provides a firm target for inventories of the global CH4 budget, and will help to inform strategies for targeted emission reductions.

Improving Deliberative Environmental Management Under Uncertainty examined similarities and differences between expert and public understanding of uncertainty. This collection directly compares expert and layperson interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty, in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions that influence economic, social, or health concerns. Data were collected via a Web-based survey where respondents were asked a series of questions after they were given four hypothetical scenarios on the following topics: wind farms, vegetation management, superfund site, and salmon. Each scenario described an environmental proposal along with pros and cons then respondents selected a response option with costs and benefits of the proposal in mind. The first scenario focused on a plan to manage forest vegetation in the northeastern United States, using either conventional methods involving aerial spraying of herbicides or more expensive hand spraying methods intended to reduce adverse impacts on local moose populations. The second scenario focused on a proposal to build a new windfarm in a western state, which would lower electricity rates to local communities but could have negative effects on resident songbird populations. The third scenario focused on a plan to clean up hazardous waste at a large industrial Superfund site. The waste was estimated to have caused 200 children to develop serious respiratory illness from exposure to contaminated drinking water; building a decontamination facility would reduce the number of sick children but would be very expensive and would take time to build. The fourth scenario focused on a plan to reduce the declining population of Chinook Salmon. In order to reduce the Chinook Salmon declines in the Seshon River, an advisory committee must find a balance between the protection of salmon and the use of water to generate electricity, which is a cause in salmon reduction. Participants responded to hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade-offs between options presented and other objectives, and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Respondents were asked general questions which ranged from how they felt about a particular issue to how easy or difficult it was to answer the questions associated with each scenario. Demographic information includes gender, age and education level. Public Sample: Nationally representative, convienence sample of Decision Research web-panel participants located throughout the United States. Expert Sample: Web site organized by United States Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) for employees who have undertaken some previous training in resource management and decision-making. Please refer to Original P.I. Documentation in the ICPSR Codebook for further information on sampling. Response Rates: The response rate for the public is 95 percent. The response rate for the expert sample is 27 percent. Please refer to the Original P.I. Documentation in the ICPSR Codebook for further information on response rates. web-based surveySpecial collaborators for Improving Deliberative Environmental Management Under Uncertainty, 2009-2010, include Nathan Dieckmann and Ellen Peters. Please refer to the Original P.I. Documentation in the ICPSR Codebook for further information on study design. Datasets: DS1: Improving Deliberative Environmental Management Under Uncertainty, 2009-2010 Decision Research Web-panel participants located throughout the United States. Presence of Common Scales: Two 10-item Numeracy Scales This collection contains 113 variables. none

Analyses of ancient food webs reveal important paleoecological processes and responses to a range of perturbations throughout Earth’s history, such as climate change. These responses can inform our forecasts of future biotic responses to similar perturbations. However, previous analyses of ancient food webs rarely accounted for key differences between modern and ancient community data, particularly selective loss of soft-bodied taxa during fossilization. To consider how fossilization impacts inferences of ancient community structure we (1) analyzed node-level attributes to identify correlations between ecological roles and fossilization potential and (2) applied selective information loss procedures to food web data for extant systems. We found that selective loss of soft-bodied organisms has predictable effects on the trophic structure of “artificially fossilized” food webs, because these organisms occupy unique, consistent food web positions. Fossilized food webs misleadingly appear less stable (i.e., more prone to trophic cascades), with less predation and an overrepresentation of generalist consumers. We also found that ecological differences between soft- and hard-bodied taxa—indicated by distinct positions in modern food webs—are recorded in an Early Eocene web, but not in Cambrian webs. This suggests that ecological differences between the groups have existed for ≥ 48 million years. Our results indicate that accounting for soft-bodied taxa is vital for accurate depictions of ancient food webs. However, the consistency of information loss trends across the analyzed food webs means it is possible to predict how the selective loss of soft-bodied taxa affects food web metrics, which can permit better modeling of ancient communities. Repository Contents: Supplementary Information: Containing Supplementary Text, Figures, Tables, and Data descriptions. Supplementary Data 1: Food web data (adjacency matrices and metadata; see publication; see Related Works). Supplementary Data 2: Additional references consulted for preservation group assignments. Supplementary Data 3: Data and R scripts to recreate analyses from this study. S3_AllWebTaxonomy_updated_200903.csv: Taxonomy data for all food web nodes. S3_AnalysisOfTaxonomicRanks.csv: Lowest taxonomic rank for each node. S3_MainFigures_CaimanComparison.R: Compare the three food webs contained in (Roopnarine and Hertog 2013). S3_MainFigures_ComparisonFunctions.R: Functions for calculating metrics and generating trophic species webs. S3_MainFigures_FossilizationFunctions.R: Functions for artificially fossilizing networks. S3_MainFigures_Setup_200826.R: Setup to import food webs. S3_MainFigures_Code.R: Code to apply functions. S3_pbdb_data_200504.csv: Data from the Paleobiology Database, excluding Lagerstätten (see publication). S3_PresGrAssignments_updated_200902.csv: Preservation group assignments for all nodes. Fossil faunal lists were downloaded from the PBDB on 17th January 2020. Any data processing steps are shown in R Scripts and described in publication. Paleobiology Database is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 International License. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. We analyzed food webs for four modern marine systems, one modern freshwater system, two ancient marine systems, and one ancient lake system from previous publications. All webs have similar, broad higher-rank taxonomic compositions and contain at least 85 nodes (the size of the smallest ancient network considered). For comparisons with ancient diversity, we downloaded fossil occurrences from the Paleobiology Database (PBDB) on 17th January 2020. 

Ambient conditions shape microbiome responses to both short- and long-duration environment changes through processes including physiological acclimation, compositional shifts, and evolution. Thus, we predict that microbial communities inhabiting locations with larger diel, episodic, and annual variability in temperature and pH should be less sensitive to shifts in these climate-change factors. To test this hypothesis, we compared responses of surface ocean microbes from more variable (nearshore) and more constant (offshore) sites to short-term factorial warming (+3 °C) and/or acidification (pH -0.3). In all cases, warming alone significantly altered microbial community composition, while acidification had a minor influence. Compared with nearshore microbes, warmed offshore microbiomes exhibited larger changes in community composition, phylotype abundances, respiration rates, and metatranscriptomes, suggesting increased sensitivity of microbes from the less-variable environment. Moreover, while warming increased respiration rates, offshore metatranscriptomes yielded evidence of thermal stress responses in protein synthesis, heat shock proteins, and regulation. Future oceans with warmer waters may enhance overall metabolic and biogeochemical rates, but they will host altered microbial communities, especially in relatively thermally stable regions of the oceans. In order to allow full comparability with other ocean acidification data sets, the R package seacarb (Gattuso et al, 2019) was used to compute a complete and consistent set of carbonate system variables, as described by Nisumaa et al. (2010). In this dataset the original values were archived in addition with the recalculated parameters (see related PI). The date of carbonate chemistry calculation by seacarb is 2020-10-20.

Solar and wind power are now cheaper than fossil fuels but are intermittent. The extra supply-side variability implies growing benefits of using real-time retail pricing (RTP). We evaluate the potential gains of RTP using a model that jointly solves investment, supply, storage, and demand to obtain a chronologically detailed dynamic equilibrium for the island of Oahu, Hawai'i. We find that RTP reduces costs in high-renewable systems by roughly 6 to 12 times as much as in fossil systems holding demand assumptions fixed, markedly lowering the cost of clean energy integration.