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This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Climate change is altering a wide range of human activities, including wine making. While wine may appear to be one of the most natural alcoholic beverages, it is not without carbon inputs and emissions, which contribute to the very change in climate that is altering both wine and wine making. In this paper, we use a carbon life cycle analysis to develop a model for quantifying carbon inputs in a bottle of wine. Current regulatory arrangements do not capture the carbon costs of wine effectively since most costs are externalized. We conclude with estimates of the cost of carbon under various regulatory regimes, which suggest how wine producers and consumers can reduce the carbon footprint of wine.

Crops for biofuels squanders cropland, water, and energy resources vital for food production needed for people.

Fires have attracted interest and generated alarm since the early 1980s. This con- cern has been particularly evident in tropical forests of Southeast Asia and the Amazon, but disastrous fires in recent summers in Australia, Europe, and the United States have drawn worldwide attention. Concern about forest fires, and related air pollution and biodiversity impacts, led inter- national organisations and northern countries - such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Union, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the World Bank, and the government of Germany - to undertake fire assessments and provide technical assistance. Nongovernmental organisations, such as the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources and World Wide Fund for Nature, have also devoted increased attention to fires. Aiming at prevention of future fires, 40 fire projects and missions costing well over US$30 million have worked in Indonesia over the last 20 years. Despite the money and effort spent on them, fires continue to burn every year. It may appear to some that efforts to address the 'fire problem' have not been effective as fires still occur.

This paper presents estimates of short-run sectoral and economy-wide effects of the introduction of a carbon tax in Australia. The results are derived using an enhanced version of the ORANI multi-sectoral model of the Australian economy. We simulate the introduction of a carbon tax at a rate of 1991-92 $25 per tonne, designed to achieve the Toronto target of a 20 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions below the 1988 level by 2005. We find that the macroeconomic impact would depend critically on the extent to which price rises flowed through into wage rates. Assuming fixed money wages, real GDP would be decreased by an estimated 0.9 per cent, and employment by 1.2 per cent. To maintain a given employment level in the face of the carbon tax would require a reduction in the foreign-currency-equivalent wage rate estimated at 2.8 per cent. This would also entail a decrease in the real wage rate (defined with respect to the consumption price deflator) of 2.8 per cent. Government could promote lower wage outcomes by returning the carbon tax revenue to the community through reductions in other taxes. Enhancements to ORANI used in this simulation include disaggregation of the fossil fuel sector and provision for carbon taxation.

Résumé Les transports génèrent de nombreuses externalités, dont celles liées à la pollution atmosphérique. Cet article analyse deux d’entre elles, les gaz à effet de serre et la pollution locale, qui, en général, sont étudiées séparément dans les travaux sur les politiques optimales de transport. Ici, ces externalités sont analysées conjointement grâce à un modèle de prise de décision séquentielle. Celui-ci permet de tenir compte de l’irréversibilité des politiques menées ainsi que de la possibilité d’une diminution progressive des incertitudes grâce à l’arrivée d’informations supplémentaires. Nous trouvons que des mesures structurelles qui permettent de limiter le recours aux transports privés sont économiquement plus avantageuses que des dispositifs techniques qui réduisent les émissions de substances polluantes. L’utilité de cette analyse conjointe des externalités est illustrée à travers deux cas : les dispositifs fiscaux qui grèvent l’automobile et la politique du logement. Classification JEL : C6; D62; D81; R48.

Socio-technical or strategic approach to renewable energy deployment all suggests that the uptake of renewable energy technology such as solar photovoltaic is as much a social issue as a technical issue. Among social issues, one most direct and immediate component is the cost of the renewable energy technology. Because renewable electricity provides no new functionality—a clean electron does the same work as a dirty electron does—but is relatively expensive compared with fossil fuel based electricity, there is currently an under-supply of renewable electricity. Policy instruments based on economics approaches are therefore developed to encourage the production and consumption of renewable electricity, aiming to remediate the market inefficiencies that stem from the failure in internalizing the environmental or social costs of fossil fuels. In this vein, the most discussed instruments are renewable portfolio standard or quota based system and the general category of feed-in tariff. Feed-in tariff is to support output or generation of the renewable electricity by subsidizing revenues. The existing discussions have all concerned about the relative effectiveness of these two instruments in terms of cost, prices and implementation efficiency. This paper attempts a different basis of evaluation of these two instruments in terms of cost and (network) externality effects. The cost effect is driven by deploying the renewable as a manufactured technology, and the network externality effect is driven by deploying the renewable as an information technology. The deployment instruments are studied in terms of how these two effects are leveraged in the deployment process. Our formulation lends itself to evolutionary policy interpretation. Future research directions associated with this new energy policy framework is then suggested.