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Abstract We evaluated three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs: IGSM, MERGE, MiniCAM) by: (i) comparing their global Primary Energy year-2000 initializations and projections for 2010 and 2015 to historical data; (ii) mapping their CO2 emissions projections against observations; and (iii) examining model-output diagnostics. The IAMs underestimated historical primary energy consumption and initial/projected CO2 emissions in both reference and stabilization scenarios (particularly for combustion fuels) but overestimated usage of non-biomass renewables, causing underestimates of future CO2 emissions that, for the stabilization scenarios, are wildly optimistic. Mitigation technology breakdowns in the policy scenarios vary enormously across IAMs, suggesting that confidence in their projections might be misplaced, or that options for mitigation have greater scope than is supposed. Most increases in carbon-free technologies in the stabilization scenarios are already captured in the reference cases. Energy-conversion efficiencies in electricity generation improve over time, but, (except for gas-powered generation in IGSM), efficiencies in the policy scenarios are less than in the reference. Electrification results diverge widely: IGSM has little change over the 21st century, while MiniCAM and MERGE have major electrification increases in their policy scenarios. We suggest: 1) comprehensive model output suitable for secondary analysis should be more readily available; 2) directly comparable reference and policy-driven mitigation scenarios are essential for assessing mitigation measures; 3) model validation using historical, source-specific energy data is crucial for assessing model credibility; 4) separation of mitigation contributions into no-policy and policy-driven amounts is needed to assess the effectiveness of mitigation policies; and 5) detailed inter-model comparisons can provide important insights into model credibility.

AbstractAs losses from extreme weather events grow, many governments are looking to privatize the financing and incentivization of climate adaptation through insurance markets. In a pure market approach to insurance for extreme weather events, individuals become responsible for ensuring they are adequately covered for risks to their own properties, and governments no longer contribute funds to post‐disaster recovery. Theoretically, insurance premiums signal the level of risk faced by each household, and incentivize homeowners to invest in adaptive action, such as retrofitting, or drainage work, to reduce premiums. Where risk is considered too high by insurance markets, housing is devalued, in theory leading to retreat from risky areas. In this review article, we evaluate the suitability of private insurance as a mechanism for climate adaptation at a household and community level. We find a mismatch between social understandings of responsibility for climate risks, and the technocratic, market‐based home insurance products offered by private insurance markets. We suggest that by constructing increasingly individualized, technical, and calculative evaluations of risk, market‐based models of insurance for extreme weather events erode the solidaristic and collective discourses and practices that support adaptive behavior.This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation

Abstract In the concept of a circular economy, wastewater is no longer waste but a resource for water, energy and nutrients. In this study, a hybrid system containing an anaerobic membrane bioreactor (AnMBR) and a microalgal membrane reactor (MMR) was developed to harvest energy, nutrients, and microalgal biomass from food and agribusiness industrial wastewater. The AnMBR removed over 97% of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and generated 4.7 ± 0.15 L (n=80) of biogas equivalent to 2.4 kWh kg−1 COD (feed) d−1. Through anaerobic metabolism, the microorganism in AnMBR generated NH 4 + and PO 4 3 − -rich effluent. Their effluent concentrations were 1.9 and 1.4 times of that in the influent, respectively. NH 4 + and PO 4 3 − -rich effluent was directly used (i.e. without filtration or sterilization) to culture microalgae Chlorella vulgaris in the MMR. . Microalgal biomass production reached up to 700 mg/L after 6 days of operation and nutrient removal rates of above 75% were achieved. However, biomass production and nutrient removal declined towards the end of experiment. The generated biomass was completely harvested using cationic polyacrylamide at the dose of 36 mg g−1 dry weight. Overall, the AnMBR has great potential to produce energy. Future research is needed to intensify the microalgal growth (e.g. genetic modification of strains, addition of plant hormones) in the MMR for continuous operation of the hybrid system.

AbstractThis paper examines household responses to sustainability issues and adoption of energy saving technologies. Our example of solar hot water systems highlights the complexity and variability of responses to low-carbon technologies. While SHW systems have the potential to provide the majority of household hot water and to lower carbon emissions, little research has been done to investigate how SHW systems are integrated into everyday life. We draw on cultural understandings of the household to identify passive and active users of SHW systems and utilize a model that illustrates how technology use is dependent on inter-relations between cultural norms, systems of provision, the material elements of homes, and practice. A key finding is that households can be ill-prepared to make the most of their SHW systems and lack post-installation support to do so. Thus, informed and efficient use of SHW systems is hit and miss. Current policy is largely aimed at subsidizing purchase and installation on the assumption that this is sufficient for emission reduction goals. Our analysis provides evidence to the contrary. Areas we highlight for policy and practice improvement are independent pre-purchase advice, installation quality, and practical guidance on system operation and interaction with patterns of hot water use.

Degradation of freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide is a primary cause of increasing water insecurity, raising the need for integrated solutions to freshwater management. While methods for characterizing the multi-faceted challenges of managing freshwater ecosystems abound, they tend to emphasize either social or ecological dimensions and fall short of being truly integrative. This paper suggests that management for sustainability of freshwater systems needs to consider the linkages between human water uses, freshwater ecosystems and governance. We present a conceptualization of freshwater resources as part of an integrated social-ecological system and propose a set of corresponding indicators to monitor freshwater ecosystem health and to highlight priorities for management. We demonstrate an application of this new framework -the Freshwater Health Index (FHI) - in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China, where stakeholders are addressing multiple and conflicting freshwater demands. By combining empirical and modeled datasets with surveys to gauge stakeholders' preferences and elicit expert information about governance mechanisms, the FHI helps stakeholders understand the status of freshwater ecosystems in their basin, how ecosystems are being manipulated to enhance or decrease water-related services, and how well the existing water resource management regime is equipped to govern these dynamics over time. This framework helps to operationalize a truly integrated approach to water resource management by recognizing the interplay between governance, stakeholders, freshwater ecosystems and the services they provide.

Obtaining reliable cross-country estimates of the income and price elasticity of energy demand requires a panel data model that can simultaneously account for endogeneity, heterogeneity, nonstationarity and cross-sectional dependence. We propose such an integrated framework and apply it to a very large dataset of 65 countries over the period 1960-2016 recently assembled by Liddle and Huntington (2020). We find that while the elasticities of income and price are non-linear, the income elasticity is generally in the range 0.6 to 0.8 and the price elasticity in the range -0.1 to -0.3. We also find that the income elasticity has been declining since the 1990s, which broadly corresponds to increasing awareness of the negative externalities associated with burning fossil fuels associated with the Kyoto Protocol. From a policy perspective, that the income energy elasticity is less than one, and has been declining since the 1990s, bodes well for climate change mitigation because it suggests that energy intensity will fall with economic growth.