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  • Energy Research
  • 15. Life on land
  • PT
  • Aurora Universities Network

  • Authors: Briedis, Martins; Bauer, Silke; Adamík, Peter; Alves, José; +10 Authors

    Aim: Animal migration strategies balance trade-offs between mortality and reproduction in seasonal environments. Knowledge of broad-scale biogeographical patterns of animal migration is important for understanding ecological drivers of migratory behaviours. Here we present a flyway-scale assessment of the spatial structure and seasonal dynamics of the Afro-Palearctic bird migration system and explore how phenology of the environment guides long-distance migration. Location: Europe and Africa. Time period: 2009–2017. Major taxa studied: Birds. Methods: We compiled an individual-based dataset comprising 23 passerine and near-passerine species of 55 European breeding populations where a total of 564 individuals were tracked migrating between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, we used remote sensed observations on primary productivity (NDVI) to estimate the timing of vegetation green-up in spring and senescence in autumn across Europe. First, we described how individual breeding and non-breeding sites and the migratory flyways link geographically. Second, we examined how migration timing along the two major Afro-Palearctic flyways is tuned with vegetation phenology en route and at the breeding sites. Results: While we found the longitudes of individual breeding and non-breeding sites to be strongly positively related, the latitudes of breeding and non-breeding sites were negatively related. In autumn, timing of migration was similar along the Western and the Eastern flyways and happened ahead of the autumnal senescence of vegetation. In spring, migration timing was approximately two weeks later along the Eastern flyway than on the Western flyway which coincided with the later spring green-up in Eastern Europe. Main Conclusions: Migration of the Afro-Palearctic landbirds follows a longitudinally parallel leap-frog migration pattern where migrants track vegetation green-up in spring and depart before vegetation senescence in autumn. However, the ongoing global change have the potential to disrupt this spatiotemporal synchronization between migration timing and spring green-up with variable effects on different migrant populations.

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    DRYAD
    Dataset . 2020
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      DRYADarrow_drop_down
      DRYAD
      Dataset . 2020
      License: CC 0
      Data sources: Datacite
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    Authors: dos Santos Soares, Alfredo;

    The progressive geography of climate change impacts places the African continent among the most vulnerable regions of the world. In line with the prediction of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its first report (1990), the involuntary migration of population is already proving to be one of the most serious of such impacts across the region. The overwhelming majority of victims remain within their own countries. Therefore, coupled with conflict, violence and development projects, slow-onset and rapid-onset disasters have currently made Africa home to the largest number of internally displaced people. Determined to tackle this plight, on 23rd October 2009 the African Union adopted its Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), articulating the need for a holistic response based on a combined framework of international human rights law and international humanitarian law. Five years since the convention entered into force (on 6th December 2012), this paper aims to taking stock of the progress made in its implementation and, in particular, assessing its effectiveness in protecting people environmentally displaced in the context of climate change. To this end, it identifies the existing and ongoing normative, policy and institutional processes on domestication and implementation of the convention and explores the degree to which these processes provide for the protection due to people displaced by environmental disasters, specially those slow-onset (e.g. desertification). The paper finds that, despite the remarkable efforts towards the implementation of the said convention, the concrete impact of its provisions on enhancing the protection of and assistance to environmental IDPs is still unperceiv

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    Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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    Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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  • image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Authors: Noelia Domínguez-Morueco; Nuno Ratola; Jordi Sierra; Martí Nadal; +1 Authors

    In this study, air concentrations of BaP in two different seasons (winter 2015 and summer 2016) and BaP levels in ground vegetation from Tarragona County were used as control simulations performed with the WRF-CHIMERE air quality modelling system, in order to reproduce the incidence of that hazardous chemical in air and soils. The CTM was validated for the present climatology, showing a good ability to represent air and soil concentrations of BaP over the target domain (petrochemical, chemical, urban and background sites), particularly in the winter. Then, the variation of the BaP concentrations in air and soils were simulated for the time series 1996-2015 and for the climate change scenario RCP8.5 (2031-2050). While an increase is projected for the levels in air, particularly in chemical and remote sites where the variation can go up to 10%, in terms of soil deposition the findings are the opposite, with an evident decrease in soil BaP concentrations, particularly for background sites. Finally, a potential health effect of BaP for the local population (lung cancer) was assessed. Although according to the projections the EU threshold for BaP atmospheric incidence (1 ng m-3) will not be reached by 2050, there will be an increase in the life-time risk of lung cancer, particularly in the most populated areas within the simulation domain.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Repositório Aberto d...arrow_drop_down
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    The Science of The Total Environment
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      The Science of The Total Environment
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Francesca Festa; Leonardo Ancillotto; Luca Santini; Michela Pacifici; +15 Authors

    ABSTRACTUnderstanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species‐rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface‐to‐volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long‐term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta‐analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

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    Biological Reviews
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Devin Routh; Aidan M. Keith; Geoff H. Baker; Boris Schröder; +142 Authors

    Earthworm distribution in global soils Earthworms are key components of soil ecological communities, performing vital functions in decomposition and nutrient cycling through ecosystems. Using data from more than 7000 sites, Phillips et al. developed global maps of the distribution of earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass (see the Perspective by Fierer). The patterns differ from those typically found in aboveground taxa; there are peaks of diversity and abundance in the mid-latitude regions and peaks of biomass in the tropics. Climate variables strongly influence these patterns, and changes are likely to have cascading effects on other soil organisms and wider ecosystem functions. Science , this issue p. 480 ; see also p. 425

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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Agritrop
    Article . 2019
    Data sources: Agritrop
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    E-Prints Complutense
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Science
    Article . 2019
    Data sources: VIRTA
    Science
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Crossref
    https://doi.org/10.1101/587394...
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Crossref
    https://dx.doi.org/10.24451/ar...
    Other literature type . 2019
    Data sources: Datacite
    Science
    Article . 2020
    Science
    Article . 2019
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    Authors: Ana Pinto Coelho; Mohamed Henriques; Afonso Duarte Rocha; João Paulino; +7 Authors

    The coastal intertidal ecosystem of the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, one of the largest and most important in West Africa, sustains a considerable proportion of the migratory shorebird populations of the East Atlantic Flyway and operates as a nursery area for benthic fish in the region. The macrozoobenthos in these mudflats constitute the main food source for both groups so that spatial and temporal variation in their abundance and community composition is likely to influence the abundance and distribution of fish and birds. In this study we described the spatial and temporal dynamics in the density, biomass, and community composition of macrozoobenthos across six intertidal flats in three islands of the Bijagós Archipelago. Overall, the Bijagós Archipelago was characterised by a highly species-rich macrozoobenthic community, with ca. 88 taxa identified across all sites, reaching a mean density of 1871 ± 58.3 ind.m-2(mean ± SE) and mean biomass of 5.65 ± 0.41 g of AFDM.m-2(ash-free dry mass per m2), values much lower than what was described for nearby intertidal areas, namely the Band d’Arguin, Mauritania. Density and biomass of major macrozoobenthos classes (Bivalvia, Polychaeta, Malacostraca and Gastropoda) differed across sites and months, displaying an overall increase in density towards the final months of the dry season (March and April). Similarly, community composition also differed significantly between sites and throughout the season. The site with most distinct community composition (Adonga) supported low diversity and high abundance of a few bivalve species, whilst other two sites that hosted the most diverse communities, were also the most similar between them (Anrumai and Abu). These spatial and temporal patterns constitute an important baseline to improve knowledge of this intertidal ecosystem and will contribute towards a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of their consumers.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ PLoS ONEarrow_drop_down
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2022
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    Article . 2022
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2022
    Data sources: DOAJ
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ PLoS ONEarrow_drop_down
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2022
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      Article . 2022
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2022
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    Authors: Forber, Kirsty; Ockenden, Mary; Wearing, C; Hollaway, Michael; +11 Authors

    Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying–rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.Core Ideas UK Climate Projections predict long dry hot periods followed by intense rainfall. Frequency of longer dry periods increase under climate change. Critical breakpoints of 7–15 dry days have been identified that solubilize more P from soil. Increased dry period frequency will result in an overall increase in SRP concentration solubilized.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ COREarrow_drop_down
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    CORE
    Article . 2017
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: CORE
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Journal of Environmental Quality
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC ND
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Journal of Environmental Quality
    Article
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: UnpayWall
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Lancaster EPrints
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: Lancaster EPrints
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ COREarrow_drop_down
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      CORE
      Article . 2017
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: CORE
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Journal of Environmental Quality
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Journal of Environmental Quality
      Article
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      Lancaster EPrints
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
      Data sources: Lancaster EPrints
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    Authors: Victor Brun; Salvatore Arico; Françoise Gaill; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; +40 Authors

    The health of the ocean, central to human well-being, has now reached a critical point. Most fish stocks are overexploited, climate change and increased dissolved carbon dioxide are changing ocean chemistry and disrupting species throughout food webs, and the fundamental capacity of the ocean to regulate the climate has been altered. However, key technical, organizational, and conceptual scientific barriers have prevented the identification of policy levers for sustainability and transformative action. Here, we recommend key strategies to address these challenges, including (1) stronger integration of sciences and (2) ocean-observing systems, (3) improved science-policy interfaces, (4) new partnerships supported by (5) a new ocean-climate finance system, and (6) improved ocean literacy and education to modify social norms and behaviors. Adopting these strategies could help establish ocean science as a key foundation of broader sustainability transformations.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ OceanReparrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    One Earth
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      One Earth
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Katrinardottir, Borgný; Alves, José A.; Sigurjónsdottir, Hrefna; Hersteinsson, Páll; +1 Authors

    Distinct preference of species for habitats is most often driven by long term differences in demographic rates between habitats. Estimating variation in those rates is key for developing successful conservation strategies. Stochastic events can interact with underlying variation in habitat quality in regulating demography but the opportunities to explore such interactions are rare. Whimbrels in Iceland show a strong preference for sparsely vegetated riverplains. Such habitats in Iceland face various threats, e.g., climate change, river regulation and spread of alien plant species. In this study we compared demographic parameters of breeding Whimbrels between riverplains and other habitats before, during and after volcanic eruption events to estimate the importance of the habitats for the species and the effect of ash deposit on breeding success. We found that an estimated minimum of 23% of the Icelandic population of Whimbrels and c. 10% of the world population of the species breed in riverplain habitats in Iceland. Whimbrels bred consistently at much higher densities in riverplain habitats than in other habitats and riverplains also had higher densities of pairs with fledglings although the proportion of successful breeders was similar between habitats. Predation by livestock may have had a considerable negative effect on breeding success on our study sites. Breeding was negatively affected by the volcanic activity, probably through the effects of ash on the invertebrate food supply, with breeding success being gradually worse closer to the eruption. Breeding success was equally affected by volcanism across habitats which differed in underlying habitat quality. This study gives an example of how populations can be regulated by factors which operate at different spatial scales, such as local variation in habitat quality and stochastic events which impact larger areas.

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    PLoS ONE
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    Authors: Casimiro Pio; Asko Noormets; Magnus Lund; Simon Munier; +25 Authors

    The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison with eddy covariance (EC) observations from 240 globally distributed sites from 2000 to 2009. In addition, we improved global terrestrial LE estimates for different land cover types by synthesis of seven best CMIP5 models and EC observations based on a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The comparison results showed substantial differences in monthly LE among all GCMs. The model CESM1-CAM5 has the best performance with the highest predictive skill and a Taylor skill score (S) from 0.51–0.75 for different land cover types. The cross-validation results illustrate that the BMA method has improved the accuracy of the CMIP5 GCM’s LE simulation with a decrease in the averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) by more than 3 W/m2 when compared to the simple model averaging (SMA) method and individual GCMs. We found an increasing trend in the BMA-based global terrestrial LE (slope of 0.018 W/m2 yr−1, p < 0.05) during the period 1970–2005. This variation may be attributed directly to the inter-annual variations in air temperature (Ta), surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and precipitation (P). However, our study highlights a large difference from previous studies in a continuous increasing trend after 1998, which may be caused by the combined effects of the variations of Rs, Ta, and P on LE for different models on these time scales. This study provides corrected-modeling evidence for an accelerated global water cycle with climate change.

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    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    CNR ExploRA
    Article . 2016
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    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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      Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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      CNR ExploRA
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      Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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  • Authors: Briedis, Martins; Bauer, Silke; Adamík, Peter; Alves, José; +10 Authors

    Aim: Animal migration strategies balance trade-offs between mortality and reproduction in seasonal environments. Knowledge of broad-scale biogeographical patterns of animal migration is important for understanding ecological drivers of migratory behaviours. Here we present a flyway-scale assessment of the spatial structure and seasonal dynamics of the Afro-Palearctic bird migration system and explore how phenology of the environment guides long-distance migration. Location: Europe and Africa. Time period: 2009–2017. Major taxa studied: Birds. Methods: We compiled an individual-based dataset comprising 23 passerine and near-passerine species of 55 European breeding populations where a total of 564 individuals were tracked migrating between Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, we used remote sensed observations on primary productivity (NDVI) to estimate the timing of vegetation green-up in spring and senescence in autumn across Europe. First, we described how individual breeding and non-breeding sites and the migratory flyways link geographically. Second, we examined how migration timing along the two major Afro-Palearctic flyways is tuned with vegetation phenology en route and at the breeding sites. Results: While we found the longitudes of individual breeding and non-breeding sites to be strongly positively related, the latitudes of breeding and non-breeding sites were negatively related. In autumn, timing of migration was similar along the Western and the Eastern flyways and happened ahead of the autumnal senescence of vegetation. In spring, migration timing was approximately two weeks later along the Eastern flyway than on the Western flyway which coincided with the later spring green-up in Eastern Europe. Main Conclusions: Migration of the Afro-Palearctic landbirds follows a longitudinally parallel leap-frog migration pattern where migrants track vegetation green-up in spring and depart before vegetation senescence in autumn. However, the ongoing global change have the potential to disrupt this spatiotemporal synchronization between migration timing and spring green-up with variable effects on different migrant populations.

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    Dataset . 2020
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      Dataset . 2020
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    Authors: dos Santos Soares, Alfredo;

    The progressive geography of climate change impacts places the African continent among the most vulnerable regions of the world. In line with the prediction of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its first report (1990), the involuntary migration of population is already proving to be one of the most serious of such impacts across the region. The overwhelming majority of victims remain within their own countries. Therefore, coupled with conflict, violence and development projects, slow-onset and rapid-onset disasters have currently made Africa home to the largest number of internally displaced people. Determined to tackle this plight, on 23rd October 2009 the African Union adopted its Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), articulating the need for a holistic response based on a combined framework of international human rights law and international humanitarian law. Five years since the convention entered into force (on 6th December 2012), this paper aims to taking stock of the progress made in its implementation and, in particular, assessing its effectiveness in protecting people environmentally displaced in the context of climate change. To this end, it identifies the existing and ongoing normative, policy and institutional processes on domestication and implementation of the convention and explores the degree to which these processes provide for the protection due to people displaced by environmental disasters, specially those slow-onset (e.g. desertification). The paper finds that, despite the remarkable efforts towards the implementation of the said convention, the concrete impact of its provisions on enhancing the protection of and assistance to environmental IDPs is still unperceiv

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    Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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      Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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      Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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      Revista Catalana de Dret Ambiental
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  • image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Authors: Noelia Domínguez-Morueco; Nuno Ratola; Jordi Sierra; Martí Nadal; +1 Authors

    In this study, air concentrations of BaP in two different seasons (winter 2015 and summer 2016) and BaP levels in ground vegetation from Tarragona County were used as control simulations performed with the WRF-CHIMERE air quality modelling system, in order to reproduce the incidence of that hazardous chemical in air and soils. The CTM was validated for the present climatology, showing a good ability to represent air and soil concentrations of BaP over the target domain (petrochemical, chemical, urban and background sites), particularly in the winter. Then, the variation of the BaP concentrations in air and soils were simulated for the time series 1996-2015 and for the climate change scenario RCP8.5 (2031-2050). While an increase is projected for the levels in air, particularly in chemical and remote sites where the variation can go up to 10%, in terms of soil deposition the findings are the opposite, with an evident decrease in soil BaP concentrations, particularly for background sites. Finally, a potential health effect of BaP for the local population (lung cancer) was assessed. Although according to the projections the EU threshold for BaP atmospheric incidence (1 ng m-3) will not be reached by 2050, there will be an increase in the life-time risk of lung cancer, particularly in the most populated areas within the simulation domain.

    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Repositório Aberto d...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    The Science of The Total Environment
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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      The Science of The Total Environment
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Francesca Festa; Leonardo Ancillotto; Luca Santini; Michela Pacifici; +15 Authors

    ABSTRACTUnderstanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species‐rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface‐to‐volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long‐term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta‐analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

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    Biological Reviews
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Biological Reviews
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    Authors: Devin Routh; Aidan M. Keith; Geoff H. Baker; Boris Schröder; +142 Authors

    Earthworm distribution in global soils Earthworms are key components of soil ecological communities, performing vital functions in decomposition and nutrient cycling through ecosystems. Using data from more than 7000 sites, Phillips et al. developed global maps of the distribution of earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass (see the Perspective by Fierer). The patterns differ from those typically found in aboveground taxa; there are peaks of diversity and abundance in the mid-latitude regions and peaks of biomass in the tropics. Climate variables strongly influence these patterns, and changes are likely to have cascading effects on other soil organisms and wider ecosystem functions. Science , this issue p. 480 ; see also p. 425

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    Agritrop
    Article . 2019
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    E-Prints Complutense
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Science
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.24451/ar...
    Other literature type . 2019
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    Authors: Ana Pinto Coelho; Mohamed Henriques; Afonso Duarte Rocha; João Paulino; +7 Authors

    The coastal intertidal ecosystem of the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, one of the largest and most important in West Africa, sustains a considerable proportion of the migratory shorebird populations of the East Atlantic Flyway and operates as a nursery area for benthic fish in the region. The macrozoobenthos in these mudflats constitute the main food source for both groups so that spatial and temporal variation in their abundance and community composition is likely to influence the abundance and distribution of fish and birds. In this study we described the spatial and temporal dynamics in the density, biomass, and community composition of macrozoobenthos across six intertidal flats in three islands of the Bijagós Archipelago. Overall, the Bijagós Archipelago was characterised by a highly species-rich macrozoobenthic community, with ca. 88 taxa identified across all sites, reaching a mean density of 1871 ± 58.3 ind.m-2(mean ± SE) and mean biomass of 5.65 ± 0.41 g of AFDM.m-2(ash-free dry mass per m2), values much lower than what was described for nearby intertidal areas, namely the Band d’Arguin, Mauritania. Density and biomass of major macrozoobenthos classes (Bivalvia, Polychaeta, Malacostraca and Gastropoda) differed across sites and months, displaying an overall increase in density towards the final months of the dry season (March and April). Similarly, community composition also differed significantly between sites and throughout the season. The site with most distinct community composition (Adonga) supported low diversity and high abundance of a few bivalve species, whilst other two sites that hosted the most diverse communities, were also the most similar between them (Anrumai and Abu). These spatial and temporal patterns constitute an important baseline to improve knowledge of this intertidal ecosystem and will contribute towards a better understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of their consumers.

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    PLoS ONE
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2022
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      Article . 2022
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2022
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    Authors: Forber, Kirsty; Ockenden, Mary; Wearing, C; Hollaway, Michael; +11 Authors

    Climate projections for the future indicate that the United Kingdom will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters, bringing longer dry periods followed by rewetting. This will result in changes in phosphorus (P) mobilization patterns that will influence the transfer of P from land to water. We tested the hypothesis that changes in the future patterns of drying–rewetting will affect the amount of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) solubilized from soil. Estimations of dry period characteristics (duration and temperature) under current and predicted climate were determined using data from the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Weather Generator tool. Three soils (sieved <2 mm), collected from two regions of the United Kingdom with different soils and farm systems, were dried at 25°C for periods of 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 60, and 90 d, then subsequently rewetted (50 mL over 2 h). The solubilized leachate was collected and analyzed for SRP. In the 2050s, warm period temperature extremes >25°C are predicted in some places and dry periods of 30 to 90 d extremes are predicted. Combining the frequency of projected dry periods with the SRP concentration in leachate suggests that this may result overall in increased mobilization of P; however, critical breakpoints of 6.9 to 14.5 d dry occur wherein up to 28% more SRP can be solubilized following a rapid rewetting event. The precise cause of this increase could not be identified and warrants further investigation as the process is not currently included in P transfer models.Core Ideas UK Climate Projections predict long dry hot periods followed by intense rainfall. Frequency of longer dry periods increase under climate change. Critical breakpoints of 7–15 dry days have been identified that solubilize more P from soil. Increased dry period frequency will result in an overall increase in SRP concentration solubilized.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ COREarrow_drop_down
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    CORE
    Article . 2017
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: CORE
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Journal of Environmental Quality
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Journal of Environmental Quality
    Article
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    Lancaster EPrints
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ COREarrow_drop_down
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      CORE
      Article . 2017
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      Journal of Environmental Quality
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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      Journal of Environmental Quality
      Article
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      Lancaster EPrints
      Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Victor Brun; Salvatore Arico; Françoise Gaill; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; +40 Authors

    The health of the ocean, central to human well-being, has now reached a critical point. Most fish stocks are overexploited, climate change and increased dissolved carbon dioxide are changing ocean chemistry and disrupting species throughout food webs, and the fundamental capacity of the ocean to regulate the climate has been altered. However, key technical, organizational, and conceptual scientific barriers have prevented the identification of policy levers for sustainability and transformative action. Here, we recommend key strategies to address these challenges, including (1) stronger integration of sciences and (2) ocean-observing systems, (3) improved science-policy interfaces, (4) new partnerships supported by (5) a new ocean-climate finance system, and (6) improved ocean literacy and education to modify social norms and behaviors. Adopting these strategies could help establish ocean science as a key foundation of broader sustainability transformations.

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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    One Earth
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC ND
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      One Earth
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Katrinardottir, Borgný; Alves, José A.; Sigurjónsdottir, Hrefna; Hersteinsson, Páll; +1 Authors

    Distinct preference of species for habitats is most often driven by long term differences in demographic rates between habitats. Estimating variation in those rates is key for developing successful conservation strategies. Stochastic events can interact with underlying variation in habitat quality in regulating demography but the opportunities to explore such interactions are rare. Whimbrels in Iceland show a strong preference for sparsely vegetated riverplains. Such habitats in Iceland face various threats, e.g., climate change, river regulation and spread of alien plant species. In this study we compared demographic parameters of breeding Whimbrels between riverplains and other habitats before, during and after volcanic eruption events to estimate the importance of the habitats for the species and the effect of ash deposit on breeding success. We found that an estimated minimum of 23% of the Icelandic population of Whimbrels and c. 10% of the world population of the species breed in riverplain habitats in Iceland. Whimbrels bred consistently at much higher densities in riverplain habitats than in other habitats and riverplains also had higher densities of pairs with fledglings although the proportion of successful breeders was similar between habitats. Predation by livestock may have had a considerable negative effect on breeding success on our study sites. Breeding was negatively affected by the volcanic activity, probably through the effects of ash on the invertebrate food supply, with breeding success being gradually worse closer to the eruption. Breeding success was equally affected by volcanism across habitats which differed in underlying habitat quality. This study gives an example of how populations can be regulated by factors which operate at different spatial scales, such as local variation in habitat quality and stochastic events which impact larger areas.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ PLoS ONEarrow_drop_down
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2015 . Peer-reviewed
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2016
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    Article . 2015
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2016
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      PLoS ONE
      Article . 2015
      Data sources: DOAJ
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    Authors: Casimiro Pio; Asko Noormets; Magnus Lund; Simon Munier; +25 Authors

    The latent heat flux (LE) between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere is a major driver of the global hydrological cycle. In this study, we evaluated LE simulations by 45 general circulation models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by a comparison with eddy covariance (EC) observations from 240 globally distributed sites from 2000 to 2009. In addition, we improved global terrestrial LE estimates for different land cover types by synthesis of seven best CMIP5 models and EC observations based on a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. The comparison results showed substantial differences in monthly LE among all GCMs. The model CESM1-CAM5 has the best performance with the highest predictive skill and a Taylor skill score (S) from 0.51–0.75 for different land cover types. The cross-validation results illustrate that the BMA method has improved the accuracy of the CMIP5 GCM’s LE simulation with a decrease in the averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) by more than 3 W/m2 when compared to the simple model averaging (SMA) method and individual GCMs. We found an increasing trend in the BMA-based global terrestrial LE (slope of 0.018 W/m2 yr−1, p < 0.05) during the period 1970–2005. This variation may be attributed directly to the inter-annual variations in air temperature (Ta), surface incident solar radiation (Rs) and precipitation (P). However, our study highlights a large difference from previous studies in a continuous increasing trend after 1998, which may be caused by the combined effects of the variations of Rs, Ta, and P on LE for different models on these time scales. This study provides corrected-modeling evidence for an accelerated global water cycle with climate change.

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    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Article
    License: Elsevier Non-Commercial
    Data sources: UnpayWall
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    CNR ExploRA
    Article . 2016
    Data sources: CNR ExploRA
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    Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
    Data sources: Crossref
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Agricultural and For...arrow_drop_down
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      Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
      Article
      License: Elsevier Non-Commercial
      Data sources: UnpayWall
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      CNR ExploRA
      Article . 2016
      Data sources: CNR ExploRA
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      Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
      Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Elsevier TDM
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