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Abstract A 2007 earthquake in the western Solomon Islands resulted in a localised subsidence event in which sea level (relative to the previous coastal settings) rose approximately 30–70 cm, providing insight into impacts of future rapid changes to sea level on coastal ecosystems. Here, we show that increasing sea level by 30–70 cm can have contrasting impacts on mangrove, seagrass and coral reef ecosystems. Coral reef habitats were the clear winners with a steady lateral growth from 2006–2014, yielding a 157% increase in areal coverage over seven years. Mangrove ecosystems, on the other hand, suffered the largest impact through a rapid dieback of 35% (130 ha) of mangrove forest in the study area after subsidence. These forests, however, had partially recovered seven years after the earthquake albeit with a different community structure. The shallow seagrass ecosystems demonstrated the most dynamic response to relative shifts in sea level with both losses and gains in areal extent at small scales of 10–100 m. The results of this study emphasize the importance of considering the impacts of sea-level rise within a complex landscape in which winners and losers may vary over time and space.

SignificanceOver the last 12,000 y, humans have faced a variety of challenges from climatic variability, either leading to a wide range of technological, economic and cultural responses, or societal collapse. In southeastern Arabia, ancient droughts appear to have corresponded with the decline of inland occupations and population movements to resource-rich areas on the coast, with transformative societal effects. Data from northern Arabia suggest that Holocene populations responded to environmental challenges through high mobility, managing water sources, and transforming their economies. Though more interdisciplinary archaeological data remain to be gathered from Arabia, these examples illustrate diverse strategies to resilience and provide important lessons for a world in which climate predictions forecast dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation.

The roles of forest and wetland ecosystems in regulating flooding have drawn increasing attention in the contexts of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. However, data on floods are scarce in many of the countries where people are most exposed and vulnerable to their impacts. Here, our separate analyses of village interview surveys (364 villages) and news archives (16 sources) show that floods have major impacts on lives and livelihoods in Indonesian Borneo, and flooding risks are associated with features of the local climate and landscape, particularly land uses that have seen rapid expansions over the past 30 years. In contrast with government assessments, we find that flooding is far more widespread, and that frequent, local, events can have large cumulative impacts. Over three years, local news agencies reported floods that affected 868 settlements, 966 times (including 89 in urban areas), inundated at least 197 000 houses, and displaced more than 776 000 people, possibly as many as 1.5 million (i.e. 5%–10% of the total population). Spatial analyses based on surveys in 364 villages show that flood frequency is associated with land use in catchment areas, including forest cover and condition, and the area of wetlands, mines (open-cut coal or gold mines), and oil palm. The probability that floods have become more frequent over the past 30 years was higher for villages closer to mines, and in watersheds with more extensive oil palm, but lower in watersheds with greater cover of selectively-logged or intact forests. We demonstrate that in data-poor regions, multiple sources of information can be integrated to gain insights into the hydrological services provided by forest and wetland ecosystems, and motivate more comprehensive assessment of flooding risks and options for ecosystem-based adaptation.

The development of perennial wheat could have a number of advantages for improving the sustainability of Australian dryland agricultural systems. The profitability that might be expected from perennial wheat of different types was investigated using MIDAS (Model of an Integrated Dryland Agricultural System), a bioeconomic model of a mixed crop/livestock farming system. Although perennial wheat may produce a lower grain yield and quality than annual wheat, it is expected inputs of fertiliser, herbicide and sowing costs will be lower. Perennial wheat used solely for grain production was not selected as part of an optimal farm plan under the standard assumptions. In contrast, dual-purpose perennial wheat that produces grain and additional forage during summer and autumn than annual wheat can increase farm profitability substantially (AU$20/ha over the whole farm) and 20% of farm area was selected on the optimal farm plan under standard assumptions. Forage from perennial wheat replaced stubble over summer and grain supplement at the break of season and increased farm stock numbers. The additional value added by grazing also reduced the relative yield required for perennial wheat to be profitable. This analysis suggests perennial wheat used for the dual purposes of grain and forage production could be developed as a profitable option for mixed crop/livestock producers.

Sand, gravel, and crushed stone are the most mined materials on Earth. Aggregates constitute the foundation for modern civilization and are essential for providing shelter, infrastructure, and communication, but are an increasingly scarce resource. Here, we review the interconnections between the impacts of aggregate mining and the services they provide. We show that the conflicting impacts on the environment and humankind disrupt the net positive effects of aggregate mining on sustainable development. Focusing on low- and middle-income countries, we link these interconnections to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and identify critical obstacles to a sustainable future for global aggregate resources. Our assessment identifies an urgent need to improve knowledge on: (1) direct and indirect impacts of extraction on human health, (2) system-level impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide, and (3) how to meet the projected trajectories of global aggregate demand.

Many of the far-reaching impacts of climate change on ecosystem function will be due to alterations in species interactions. However, our understanding of the effects of temperature on the dynamics of interactions between species is largely inadequate. Inducible defences persist in prey populations because defensive traits increase survival in the presence of predators but are costly when they are absent. Large-scale changes in the thermal climate are likely to alter the costs or benefits of these defences for ectotherms, whose physiological processes are driven by environmental temperature. A shift in costs of defensive traits would affect not only predator-prey interactions, but also the strength of selection for inducible defences in natural populations. We investigate the effect of temperature on the costs of behavioural defences in larvae of the marine toad, Rhinella marinus. Larvae were reared in the presence or absence of predator cues at both 25 and 30 °C. When exposed to predation cues, larvae reduced activity and spent less time feeding. Exposure to predation cues also reduced metabolic rate, presumably as a by-product of reducing activity levels. Larvae exposed to predation cues also grew more slowly, were smaller at metamorphosis and were poorer jumpers after metamorphosis--three traits associated with fitness in post-metamorphic anurans. We found that the costs of behavioural defences, in terms of larval growth, post-metamorphic size and jumping performance, were exacerbated at cooler temperatures. The thermal sensitivity of costs associated with defensive traits may explain geographic variation in plasticity of defensive traits in other species and suggests that changes in environmental temperature associated with climate change may affect predator-prey interactions in subtle ways not previously considered.

AbstractWe are in a period of relatively rapid climate change. This poses challenges for individual species and threatens the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon. Temperature is a key stressor. In a warming climate, individual organisms may be able to shift their thermal optima through phenotypic plasticity. However, such plasticity is unlikely to be sufficient over the coming centuries. Resilience to warming will also depend on how fast the distribution of traits that define a species can adapt through other methods, in particular through redistribution of the abundance of variants within the population and through genetic evolution. In this paper, we use a simple theoretical ‘trait diffusion’ model to explore how the resilience of a given species to climate change depends on the initial trait diversity (biodiversity), the trait diffusion rate (mutation rate), and the lifetime of the organism. We estimate theoretical dangerous rates of continuous global warming that would exceed the ability of a species to adapt through trait diffusion, and therefore lead to a collapse in the overall productivity of the species. As the rate of adaptation through intraspecies competition and genetic evolution decreases with species lifetime, we find critical rates of change that also depend fundamentally on lifetime. Dangerous rates of warming vary from 1°C per lifetime (at low trait diffusion rate) to 8°C per lifetime (at high trait diffusion rate). We conclude that rapid climate change is liable to favour short-lived organisms (e.g. microbes) rather than longer-lived organisms (e.g. trees).

Seaweed (macroalgae) has attracted attention globally given its potential for climate change mitigation. A topical and contentious question is: Can seaweeds' contribution to climate change mitigation be enhanced at globally meaningful scales? Here, we provide an overview of the pressing research needs surrounding the potential role of seaweed in climate change mitigation and current scientific consensus via eight key research challenges. There are four categories where seaweed has been suggested to be used for climate change mitigation: 1) protecting and restoring wild seaweed forests with potential climate change mitigation co-benefits; 2) expanding sustainable nearshore seaweed aquaculture with potential climate change mitigation co-benefits; 3) offsetting industrial CO2 emissions using seaweed products for emission abatement; and 4) sinking seaweed into the deep sea to sequester CO2. Uncertainties remain about quantification of the net impact of carbon export from seaweed restoration and seaweed farming sites on atmospheric CO2. Evidence suggests that nearshore seaweed farming contributes to carbon storage in sediments below farm sites, but how scalable is this process? Products from seaweed aquaculture, such as the livestock methane-reducing seaweed Asparagopsis or low carbon food resources show promise for climate change mitigation, yet the carbon footprint and emission abatement potential remains unquantified for most seaweed products. Similarly, purposely cultivating then sinking seaweed biomass in the open ocean raises ecological concerns and the climate change mitigation potential of this concept is poorly constrained. Improving the tracing of seaweed carbon export to ocean sinks is a critical step in seaweed carbon accounting. Despite carbon accounting uncertainties, seaweed provides many other ecosystem services that justify conservation and restoration and the uptake of seaweed aquaculture will contribute to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, we caution that verified seaweed carbon accounting and associated sustainability thresholds are needed before large-scale investment into climate change mitigation from seaweed projects.