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Climate change is expected to impact the hydrological regime worldwide, and land use and land cover change may alter the effects of the former in some cases. Secondary growth in deforested and abandoned areas is one of the main consequences of land use and cover changes in Amazonia. Among land uses, the effects of the secondary growth in water availability in large scale basins are not well understood. This work analyzes the potential effects of secondary growth under climate and land use change on water availability and hydropower in the Tocantins basin, in the Legal Amazon region of Brazil, using the MHD-INPE hydrological model driven by different climate scenarios and two future socioeconomic-based potential land use scenarios. The model projects decrease on discharge under climate change scenarios, which further cause the simulated hydropower energy potential to decrease significantly. When only deforestation scenarios are included, the effects of climate change are weakened, but when secondary growth is also considered, the effects of climate change are enhanced. Results suggest that different aspects of environmental change, such as secondary growth, may affect water production and the sectors depending on it.

Recent extreme weather events have resulted in an ongoing discussion on the issues of land use and compensation payments within Austrian agriculture. Building on a functional evaluation system for agricultural lands as developed within the Interreg IIIB project “ILUP”, the national project “Agriculture and Flooding” has as its goal to classify the flood-protection contribution and flood sensitivity of agricultural lands. This, in turn, enables the recommendation of targeted measures for potentially improving flood situations, as well as an estimate of their implementation costs. In addition to the digital soil map, other fundamental sources used for the project are the digital flood risk map, IACS land-use data and works by the Institute for Land and Water Management Research. Reference values and marginal returns sourced from the Federal Institute of Agricultural Economics also flow into the cost estimates for the recommended combination. The results will contribute to an understanding of the multifunctionality of agricultural lands and to the setting of priorities on a regional scale regarding packaged flood-prevention and damage-minimization. However, the results at hand can only serve as one step toward regional flood protection projects, whose development will require the cooperation of all interest groups.

AbstractNutrient enrichment can simultaneously increase and destabilise plant biomass production, with co‐limitation by multiple nutrients potentially intensifying these effects. Here, we test how factorial additions of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium with essential nutrients (K+) affect the stability (mean/standard deviation) of aboveground biomass in 34 grasslands over 7 years. Destabilisation with fertilisation was prevalent but was driven by single nutrients, not synergistic nutrient interactions. On average, N‐based treatments increased mean biomass production by 21–51% but increased its standard deviation by 40–68% and so consistently reduced stability. Adding P increased interannual variability and reduced stability without altering mean biomass, while K+ had no general effects. Declines in stability were largest in the most nutrient‐limited grasslands, or where nutrients reduced species richness or intensified species synchrony. We show that nutrients can differentially impact the stability of biomass production, with N and P in particular disproportionately increasing its interannual variability.

A major paradigm in biosphere ecology is that organic production, carbon turnover and, perhaps, species diversity are highest at tropical latitudes, and decrease toward higher latitudes. To examine these trends in the pantropical mangrove forest vegetation type, we collated and analysed data on above-ground biomass and annual litterfall for these communities. Regressions of biomass and litterfall data show significant relationships with height of the vegetation and latitude. It is suggested that height and latitude are causally related to biomass, while the relationship with litterfall reflects the specific growing conditions at the respective study sites. Comparison of mangrove and upland forest litterfall data shows similar trends with latitude but indicates that mangrove litterfall is higher than upland forest litterfall. The regression equations allow the litterfall/biomass ratio to be simulated, and this suggests that the patterns of organic matter partitioning differ according to latitude.

In urban areas, climate change effects are often associated with increasing risks of flood, heat waves, and sagging. Increasing climate risks exacerbate existing urban inequalities, poverty levels, and environmental degradation. Global urban policy is reacting to these urban issues by calling for making cities more inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. In this paper, social impact assessment is used in combination with spatial analysis in a framework to support the operationalisation of urban polices. The framework is employed to investigate how climate change effects are distributed across the city and to identify which social groups are more vulnerable to climate risks. Spatial Planning and Strategy Policy Analysis

Summary Several decades of research on invasive marine species have yielded a broad understanding of the nature of species invasion mechanisms and associated threats globally. However, this is not true of the Arctic, a region where ongoing climatic changes may promote species invasion. Here, we evaluated risks associated with non‐indigenous propagule loads discharged with ships' ballast water to the high‐Arctic archipelago, Svalbard, as a case study for the wider Arctic. We sampled and identified transferred propagules using traditional and DNA barcoding techniques. We then assessed the suitability of the Svalbard coast for non‐indigenous species under contemporary and future climate scenarios using ecophysiological models based on critical temperature and salinity reproductive thresholds. Ships discharging ballast water in Svalbard carried high densities of zooplankton (mean 1522 ± 335 SE individuals m−3), predominately comprised of indigenous species. Ballast water exchange did not prevent non‐indigenous species introduction. Non‐indigenous coastal species were present in all except one of 16 ballast water samples (mean 144 ± 67 SE individuals m−3), despite five of the eight ships exchanging ballast water en route. Of a total of 73 taxa, 36 species including 23 non‐indigenous species were identified. Of those 23, sufficient data permitted evaluation of the current and future colonization potential for eight widely known invaders. With the exception of one of these species, modelled suitability indicated that the coast of Svalbard is unsuitable presently; under the 2100 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8·5 climate scenario, however, modelled suitability will favour colonization for six species. Synthesis and applications. We show that current ballast water management practices do not prevent non‐indigenous species from being transferred to the Arctic. Consequences of these shortcomings will be shipping‐route dependent, but will likely magnify over time: our models indicate future conditions will favour the colonization of non‐indigenous species Arctic‐wide. Invasion threats will be greatest where shipping transfers organisms across biogeographic realms, and for these shipping routes ballast water treatment technologies may be required to prevent impacts. Our results also highlight critical gaps in our understanding of ballast water management efficacy and prioritization. Thereby, our study provides an agenda for research and policy development.

Understanding how genetic-based traits of plants interact with climate to affect associated communities will help improve predictions of climate change impacts on biodiversity. However, few community-level studies have addressed such interactions. Pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in the southwestern U.S. shows genetic-based resistance and susceptibility to pinyon needle scale (Matsucoccus acalyptus). We sought to determine if susceptibility to scale herbivory influenced the diversity and composition of the extended community of 250+ arthropod species, and if this influence would be consistent across consecutive years, an extreme drought year followed by a moderate drought year. Because scale insects alter the architecture of susceptible trees, it is difficult to separate the direct influences of susceptibility on arthropod communities from the indirect influences of scale-altered tree architecture. To separate these influences, scales were experimentally excluded from susceptible trees for 15 years creating susceptible trees with the architecture of resistant trees, hereafter referred to as scale-excluded trees. Five patterns emerged. (1) In both years, arthropod abundance was 3-4X lower on susceptible trees compared to resistant and scale-excluded trees. (2) Species accumulation curves show that alpha and gamma diversity were 2-3X lower on susceptible trees compared to resistant and scale-excluded trees. (3) Reaction norms of arthropod richness and abundance on individual tree genotypes across years showed genotypic variation in the community response to changes in climate. (4) The genetic-based influence of susceptibility on arthropod community composition is climate dependent. During extreme drought, community composition on scale-excluded trees resembled susceptible trees indicating composition was strongly influenced by tree genetics independent of tree architecture. However, under moderate drought, community composition on scale-excluded trees resembled resistant trees indicating traits associated with tree architecture became more important. (5) One year after extreme drought, the arthropod community rebounded sharply. However, there was a much greater rebound in richness and abundance on resistant compared to susceptible trees suggesting that reduced resiliency in the arthropod community is associated with susceptibility. These results argue that individual genetic-based plant-herbivore interactions can directly and indirectly impact community-level diversity, which is modulated by climate. Understanding such interactions is important for assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.