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Abstract In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the e -insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of e -tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

Abstract In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the e -insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of e -tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

Short term load forecasting plays an increasingly important role in Smart Grid. Short term load forecasting is also an important part of enterprise power system management. Providing accurate load time series data for a certain period of time in the future can enable enterprises to ensure the smooth operation of production while making a reasonable power plan, reducing power consumption and basic electricity charges, thus reducing the production cost of enterprises. In addition, lower electricity consumption means lower carbon dioxide emissions, which has far-reaching implications for sustainable development strategies. This paper presents a short-term load forecasting method based on time series. The model divides the time series data into four parts: trend item, period item, holiday item and error item. In the experiment part, this paper provides a set of preprocessing method flow. Aiming at the problem that the sampling rate of the current smart grid data is not constant, a data smoothing algorithm is proposed.

Short term load forecasting plays an increasingly important role in Smart Grid. Short term load forecasting is also an important part of enterprise power system management. Providing accurate load time series data for a certain period of time in the future can enable enterprises to ensure the smooth operation of production while making a reasonable power plan, reducing power consumption and basic electricity charges, thus reducing the production cost of enterprises. In addition, lower electricity consumption means lower carbon dioxide emissions, which has far-reaching implications for sustainable development strategies. This paper presents a short-term load forecasting method based on time series. The model divides the time series data into four parts: trend item, period item, holiday item and error item. In the experiment part, this paper provides a set of preprocessing method flow. Aiming at the problem that the sampling rate of the current smart grid data is not constant, a data smoothing algorithm is proposed.

Abstract The central role of occupants for achieving energy savings in residential buildings is increasingly recognised. Simulation programmes able to take into account occupant behaviour are considered to be powerful tools for bridging the gap between the predicted and the actual energy consumption for new buildings. Nevertheless, the majority of residential buildings that will constitute the housing stock in 2050 have already been built today, therefore occupant behaviour and building simulation tools need to be fully exploited for supporting the renovation of existing housing stock. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of occupant behaviour modelling in supporting decision-makers dealing with the design of renovation strategies for residential buildings. An Italian multi-family public housing building is assumed as case study to estimate the influence of three dimensions linked with occupant behaviour – management of the thermostat, management of the heating system, variation of building characteristics – on energy heating consumption. The results show that, while the occupant behaviour influences the heating loads up to 1/3 in case of high level of building retrofit, the less the building is renovated, the higher is the behavioural impact in absolute terms of energy reduction. Therefore, in order to be effective, renovation strategies are required to design appropriate informative instruments at an early stage to support behaviour changes towards responsible energy consumption.

Abstract The central role of occupants for achieving energy savings in residential buildings is increasingly recognised. Simulation programmes able to take into account occupant behaviour are considered to be powerful tools for bridging the gap between the predicted and the actual energy consumption for new buildings. Nevertheless, the majority of residential buildings that will constitute the housing stock in 2050 have already been built today, therefore occupant behaviour and building simulation tools need to be fully exploited for supporting the renovation of existing housing stock. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of occupant behaviour modelling in supporting decision-makers dealing with the design of renovation strategies for residential buildings. An Italian multi-family public housing building is assumed as case study to estimate the influence of three dimensions linked with occupant behaviour – management of the thermostat, management of the heating system, variation of building characteristics – on energy heating consumption. The results show that, while the occupant behaviour influences the heating loads up to 1/3 in case of high level of building retrofit, the less the building is renovated, the higher is the behavioural impact in absolute terms of energy reduction. Therefore, in order to be effective, renovation strategies are required to design appropriate informative instruments at an early stage to support behaviour changes towards responsible energy consumption.

In order to improve the accuracy of the battery state of charge (SOC) estimation, in this paper we take a lithium-ion battery as an example to study the adaptive Kalman filter based SOC estimation algorithm. Firstly, the second-order battery system model is introduced. Meanwhile, the temperature and charge rate are introduced into the model. Then, the temperature and the charge rate are adopted to estimate the battery SOC, with the help of the parameters of an adaptive Kalman filter based estimation algorithm model. Afterwards, it is verified by the numerical simulation that in the ideal case, the accuracy of SOC estimation can be enhanced by adding two elements, namely, the temperature and charge rate. Finally, the actual road conditions are simulated with ADVISOR, and the simulation results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of battery SOC estimation under actual road conditions. Thus, its application scope in engineering is greatly expanded.