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Different species within the same community may exhibit distinct phenological responses to climate change, so it is necessary to study species differences in the green-up date among abundant species within a wide area, and a suitable phenology model should be introduced to explain the associated climate-driven mechanism. Although various models have been developed, very few studies have aimed to compare their efficiency and robustness, and the relative contributions of climate driving factors have not been sufficiently examined. We analyzed phenology data for 12 species across 17 stations in Inner Mongolia and found that essential spatiotemporal and interspecies differences existed in the green-up date. Five process-based models were established for each species and their performance was comprehensively evaluated. The two-phase models (sequential model, parallel model, unified model and unified model combined with precipitation driving) generally performed better than the one-phase model (thermal time model), and the model considering precipitation performed the best, which indicates that it is necessary to introduce the chilling effect and precipitation driving effect to improve the model accuracy in arid environments. We proposed a method to estimate the contribution rates of various climate driving factors, and significant differences in the relative demand for the various climate driving factors among different species were clearly revealed. The results indicated that for natural vegetation in Inner Mongolia, the need for the chilling and temperature driving is relatively high, and the precipitation driving is very important for herbaceous vegetation, which leads to considerable spatial and interspecies differences in green-up date. We demonstrated the feasibility of quantitatively evaluating the contributions of different climate driving factors with a process-based model, and the contradiction in phenological changes among different studies may eventually be clarified.

The development of advanced computational models for improving the accuracy of streamflow forecasting could save time and cost for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a locally weighted learning (LWL) algorithm is combined with the Additive Regression (AR), Bagging (BG), Dagging (DG), Random Subspace (RS), and Rotation Forest (RF) ensemble techniques for the streamflow forecasting in the Jhelum Catchment, Pakistan. To build the models, we grouped the initial parameters into four different scenarios (M1–M4) of input data with a five-fold cross-validation (I–V) approach. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed ensemble models, previous lagged values of streamflow were used as inputs whereas the cross-validation technique and periodicity input were used to examine prediction accuracy on the basis of root correlation coefficient (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), relative absolute error (RAE), and root relative squared error (RRSE). The results showed that the incorporation of periodicity (i.e., MN) as an additional input variable considerably improved both the training performance and predictive performance of the models. A comparison between the results obtained from the input combinations III and IV revealed a significant performance improvement. The cross-validation revealed that the dataset M3 provided more accurate results compared to the other datasets. While all the ensemble models successfully outperformed the standalone LWL model, the ensemble LWL-AR model was identified as the best model. Our study demonstrated that the ensemble modeling approach is a robust and promising alternative to the single forecasting of streamflow that should be further investigated with different datasets from other regions around the world.

AbstractEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.

To study the heating performance of a solar-assisted cold-water phase-change-energy heat pump system, its heating performance under series and parallel connections is simulated for a community in Harbin, the influence of ice thickness on the different operation modes is analyzed, and the economy of the system is calculated for series and parallel connections in this paper. The results show that the water supply temperature is higher and more uniform in the parallel operation, and more terminal heat is supplied; the ice thickness has more of an influence on the series connection compared to the parallel connection; and the dynamic payback period is 6.72 years for the series connection and 7.28 years for the parallel connection. This case study can serve as a guide for practical engineering application projects and act as a reference for heating and economic data for the promotion of this heat pump system.

In recent years, food security, especially supply, has been an important issue in China’s agricultural production. The stability of grain prices is related to the stability and development of the grain market. Based on agricultural production data from 1970 to 2015, this paper explores the influence of agricultural product price fluctuation on grain production by using the cobweb theory and vector error correction (VEC) model. The results show that changes in grain production in China are affected by fluctuations in agricultural product prices, that the production change lags behind the price change, and that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between grain yield and agricultural product price. A Granger causality test shows that the change in agricultural product price is the Granger cause of grain yield change.

Symbiodiniaceae species is a dinoflagellate that plays a crucial role in maintaining the symbiotic mutualism of reef-building corals in the ocean. Reef-building corals, as hosts, provide the nutrition and habitat to endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae species and Symbiodiniaceae species transfer the fixed carbon to the corals for growth. Environmental stress is one of the factors impacting the physiology and metabolism of the corals-dinoflagellate association. The environmental stress triggers the metabolic changes in Symbiodiniaceae species resulting in an increase in the production of survival organelles related to storage components such as lipid droplets (LD). LDs are found as unique organelles, mainly composed of triacylglycerols surrounded by phospholipids embedded with some proteins. To date, it has been reported that investigation of lipid droplets significantly present in animals and plants led to the understanding that lipid droplets play a key role in lipid storage and transport. The major challenge of investigating endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae species lies in overcoming the strategies in isolating lesser lipid droplets present in its intercellular cells. Here, we review the most recent highlights of LD research in endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae species particularly focusing on LD biogenesis, mechanism, and major lipid droplet proteins. Moreover, to comprehend potential novel ways of energy storage in the symbiotic interaction between endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae species and its host, we also emphasize recent emerging environmental factors such as temperature, ocean acidification, and nutrient impacting the accumulation of lipid droplets in endosymbiotic Symbiodiniaceae species.