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Abstract‘Environmental non-migration’ refers to the spatial continuity of an individual’s residence at the same place despite environmental risk. Moreover, this is a largely under-researched topic, especially within the climate change adaptation discourse, but is increasingly coming to the attention of scientists and policymakers for sustainable adaptation planning. So far, there exists hardly any conceptual and methodical guidelines to study environmental non-migration. Considering this research gap, this paper explores environmental non-migration based on the notion that factors of livelihood resilience can partly explain the decision to non-migration. Here, livelihood resilience is seen as an outcome of the interactions between societal and environmental conditions of an individual household. These conditions inform the decisions (to stay or to migrate) taken in case of a hazard or creeping environmental change. Their influence generalises the spectrum of migration decision-making (to stay or to migrate), which is conceptualised by four broad outcomes categorised into voluntary and involuntary, and non-migrants and migrants. This analytical concept is operationalised through an empirical example in southwest coastal Bangladesh. The results suggest that the Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI) relates to the voluntary nature of migration decisions once they are made. Still, only a household’s resilience cannot predict the decisions the household makes to stay or migrate. The paper concludes that the proposed analytical concept, with its exemplary factors, maybe an initial means to holistically explore migration decisions in the context of natural hazards and climate and environmental change. However, environmental non-migration remains complex and multi-faceted, and its assessment requires deeper examination at various scales.

This study assesses the socio-economic impacts in terms of value added, imports and employment of sugarcane-derived bioethanol production in Northeast (NE) Brazil. An extended inter-regional Input–Output (IO) model has been developed and is used to analyse three scenarios, all projected for 2020: a business-as-usual scenario (BaU) which projects current practices, and two scenarios that consider more efficient agricultural practices and processing efficiency (scenario A) and in addition an expansion of the sector into new areas (scenario B). By 2020 in all scenarios, value added and imports increase compared to the current situation. The value added by the sugarcane–ethanol sector in the NE region is 2.8 billion US$ in the BaU scenario, almost 4 billion US$ in scenario A, and 9.4 billion US$ in scenario B. The imports in the region will grow with 4% (BaU scenario), 38% (scenario A) and 262% (scenario B). This study shows that the large reduction of employment (114,000 jobs) due to the replacement of manual harvesting by mechanical harvesting can be offset by additional production and indirect effects. The total employment in the region by 2020 grows with 10% in scenario A (around 12,500 jobs) and 126% in scenario B (around 160,000 jobs). The indirect effects of sugarcane production in the NE are large in the rest of Brazil due to the import of inputs from these regions. The use of an extended inter-regional IO model can quantify direct and indirect socio-economic effects at regional level and can provide insight in the linkages between regions. The application of the model to NE Brazil has demonstrated significant positive socio-economic impacts that can be achieved when developing and expanding the sugarcane–ethanol sector in the region under the conditions studied here, not only for the NE region itself but also for the economy of the rest of Brazil.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from fossil fuels and industry increased by 2.2% per year on average between 2005 and 2015 1 . Global emissions need to peak and decline rapidly to limit climate change to well below 2 °C of warming 2,3 , which is one of the goals of the Paris Agreement 4 . Untangling the reasons underlying recent changes in emissions trajectories is critical to guide efforts to attain those goals. Here we analyse the drivers of decreasing CO 2 emissions in a group of 18 developed economies that have decarbonized over the period 2005–2015. We show that within this group, the displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy and decreases in energy use explain decreasing CO 2 emissions. However, the decrease in energy use can be explained at least in part by a lower growth in gross domestic product. Correlation analysis suggests that policies on renewable energy are supporting emissions reductions and displacing fossil fuels in these 18 countries, but not elsewhere, and that policies on energy efficiency are supporting lower energy use in these 18 countries, as well as more widely. Overall, the evidence shows that efforts to reduce emissions are underway in many countries, but these efforts need to be maintained and enhanced by more stringent policy actions to support a global peak in emissions followed by global emissions reductions in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement 3 .

Sea-surface warming, sea-ice melting and related freshening, changes in circulation and mixing regimes, and ocean acidification induced by the present climate changes are modifying marine ecosystem structure and function and have the potential to alter the cycling of carbon and nutrients in surface oceans. Changing climate has direct and indirect consequences on marine viruses, including cascading effects on biogeochemical cycles, food webs, and the metabolic balance of the ocean. We discuss here a range of case studies of climate change and the potential consequences on virus function, viral assemblages and virus-host interactions. In turn, marine viruses influence directly and indirectly biogeochemical cycles, carbon sequestration capacity of the oceans and the gas exchange between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. We cannot yet predict whether the viruses will exacerbate or attenuate the magnitude of climate changes on marine ecosystems, but we provide evidence that marine viruses interact actively with the present climate change and are a key biotic component that is able to influence the oceans' feedback on climate change. Long-term and wide spatial-scale studies, and improved knowledge of host-virus dynamics in the world's oceans will permit the incorporation of the viral component into future ocean climate models and increase the accuracy of the predictions of the climate change impacts on the function of the oceans.

The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators, i.e., the City Blueprint has been developed to assess the sustainability of UWCS (Van Leeuwen et al., Wat Resour Manage 26:2177–2197, 2012). In this paper this approach has been applied in 9 cities and regions in Europe (Amsterdam, Algarve, Athens, Bucharest, Hamburg, Reggio Emilia, Rotterdam, Oslo and Cities of Scotland) and in 2 African cities in Angola (Kilamba Kiaxi) and Tanzania (Dar es Salaam). The assessments showed that cities vary considerably with regard to the sustainability of the UWCS. This is also captured in the Blue City Index (BCI), the arithmetic mean of 24 indicators comprising the City Blueprint (Van Leeuwen et al., Wat Resour Manage 26:2177–2197, 2012). Theoretically, the BCI has a minimum score of 0 and a maximum score of 10. The actual BCIs in the 11 cities studied varied from 3.31 (Kilamba Kiaxi) to 7.72 (Hamburg). The BCI was positively correlated with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person, the ambitions of the local authorities regarding the sustainability of the UWCS, the voluntary participation index (VPI) and all governance indicators according to the World Bank. The study demonstrated that the variability in sustainability among the UWCS of cities offers great opportunities for short-term and long-term improvements, provided that cities share their best practices.

The aim of the EU-funded HERA (health and environment research agenda) project is to set priorities for the future European research agenda in the environment, climate and health nexus. We report results from a European researcher's perspective and identify research areas that have been inadequately investigated to date.An online survey was completed by European researchers to assess, evaluate and visualise research gaps. These research gaps were identified for 21 predefined areas within 3 main categories: i) classical environment and health paradigm; ii) problem or sector-based research areas and approaches and iii) holistic research areas and concepts. All research gaps were then evaluated by expert groups with the pre-defined criteria and systematically summarized. For areas identified within the survey as under-reported, additional input was sought from a range of key selected experts. The EU project database Cordis was utilized to verify that these areas were under-researched.Between May and July 2019, 318 respondents from 38 countries reported 624 research gaps. The main areas for attention identified were: urban environments; chemicals; and climate change, (combined n = 313 gaps). Biodiversity loss and health; transport, mobility, sustainable solutions and health; energy transition and health; waste and the circular economy and health; ethics and philosophy and health were areas that were acknowledged as under-researched (combined n = 27 gaps). These under-researched areas were identified as having certain commonalities, they: i) mostly fell in the category "problem or sector based approaches"; ii) they are essential for developing and implementing solutions; and iii) require trans-disciplinary and cross-sectoral collaboration.Currently attention is given to topical and highly researched areas in environmental health. In contrast, this paper identifies key topics and approaches that are under-researched, yet, are critical for the implementation of the EU Green Deal, related strategies and action plans, and require further investigation and investment. The findings reveal the imperative to foster solutions-oriented, trans-disciplinary and participatory research and its implementation through changes in research funding and research structures.

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts, especially on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF), and the recent progress made toward its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional, and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global realtime drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental-to-global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress toward meeting these challenges and developing a global system.