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Two studies conducted in Guadeloupe (West Indies) and Réunion (Indian Ocean) islands were designed to investigate the benefits of producing sugarcane as an energy crop and to assess the influence of agroclimatic factors on energy efficiency, respectively. In this context, it is essential to know the low heating value of the dry above-ground biomass (LHVd, MJ/kg) and its energy yield (EY, MJ/m2) in order to select the best varieties and set up a payment method for growers. Eighteen Poaceae (sugarcane and Erianthus) cultivars were compared under wet tropical environmental conditions in Guadeloupe. Three sugarcane cultivars were studied in four contrasting environments in Réunion. The partition sampling and biomass measurement procedures were identical at both locations. Low heating value (LHV) predictions were achieved using near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) after specific calibration (Guadeloupe), or arithmetically after lignocellulosic compound prediction (Réunion). In both studies, LHV variability was very low and slightly dependent on the site, cultivar and above-ground biomass components (millable stalks and tops, and green and dead leaves). Considering the overall dry above-ground biomass (DAB, kg/m2), the LHVd was calculated by averaging 159 samples (mean 16.65 MJ/kg) in Guadeloupe and 315 samples (mean 16.45 MJ/kg) for Réunion. An excellent linear relationship between the DAB and its EY, regardless of cultivar, age and environment, was found (n = 474 and R² = 0.99). Sugarcane energy content assessment could thus be simplified by measuring the DAB, while enabling development of a faster method of payment for growers based on the DAB measurement and the correlation between DAB and EY. Finally, the findings of this study should allow growers to rapidly determine the commercial value of their sugarcane crops, and also enable purchasers to assess the amount of recoverable energy. (Résumé d'auteur)

The potential for global forest cover The restoration of forested land at a global scale could help capture atmospheric carbon and mitigate climate change. Bastin et al. used direct measurements of forest cover to generate a model of forest restoration potential across the globe (see the Perspective by Chazdon and Brancalion). Their spatially explicit maps show how much additional tree cover could exist outside of existing forests and agricultural and urban land. Ecosystems could support an additional 0.9 billion hectares of continuous forest. This would represent a greater than 25% increase in forested area, including more than 200 gigatonnes of additional carbon at maturity.Such a change has the potential to store an equivalent of 25% of the current atmospheric carbon pool. Science , this issue p. 76 ; see also p. 24

AbstractLand Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra‐annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite imagery. LSP plays a key role in characterizing land‐surface fluxes, and is central to accurately parameterizing terrestrial biosphere–atmosphere interactions, as well as climate models. In this article, we present an evaluation of Pan‐European LSP and its changes over the past 30 years, using the longest continuous record of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) available to date in combination with a landscape‐based aggregation scheme. We used indicators of Start‐Of‐Season, End‐Of‐Season and Growing Season Length (SOS, EOS and GSL, respectively) for the period 1982–2011 to test for temporal trends in activity of terrestrial vegetation and their spatial distribution. We aggregated pixels into ecologically representative spatial units using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) and assessed the relative contribution of spring and autumn phenology. GSL increased significantly by 18–24 days decade−1 over 18–30% of the land area of Europe, depending on methodology. This trend varied extensively within and between climatic zones and landscape classes. The areas of greatest growing‐season lengthening were the Continental and Boreal zones, with hotspots concentrated in southern Fennoscandia, Western Russia and pockets of continental Europe. For the Atlantic and Steppic zones, we found an average shortening of the growing season with hotspots in Western France, the Po valley, and around the Caspian Sea. In many zones, changes in the NDVI‐derived end‐of‐season contributed more to the GSL trend than changes in spring green‐up, resulting in asymmetric trends. This underlines the importance of investigating senescence and its underlying processes more closely as a driver of LSP and global change.

Glacier and permafrost hazards in cold mountain regions encompass various flood and mass movement processes that are strongly affected by rapid and cumulative climate-induced changes in the alpine cryosphere. These processes are characterized by a range of spatial and temporal dimensions, from small volume icefalls and rockfalls that present a frequent but localized danger to less frequent but large magnitude process chains that can threaten people and infrastructure located far downstream. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have proven particularly devastating, accounting for the most far-reaching disasters in high mountain regions globally. Comprehensive assessments of glacier and permafrost hazards define two core components (or outcomes): 1. Susceptibility and stability assessment: Identifies likelihood and origin of an event based on analyses of wide-ranging triggering and conditioning factors driven by interlinking atmospheric, cryospheric, geological, geomorphological, and hydrological processes. 2. Hazard mapping: Identifies the potential impact on downslope and downstream areas through a combination of process modeling and field mapping that provides the scientific basis for decision making and planning. Glacier and permafrost hazards gained prominence around the mid-20th century, especially following a series of major disasters in the Peruvian Andes, Alaska, and the Swiss Alps. At that time, related hazard assessments were reactionary and event-focused, aiming to understand the causes of the disasters and to reduce ongoing threats to communities. These disasters and others that followed, such as Kolka Karmadon in 2002, established the fundamental need to consider complex geosystems and cascading processes with their cumulative downstream impacts as one of the distinguishing principles of integrative glacier and permafrost hazard assessment. The widespread availability of satellite imagery enables a preemptive approach to hazard assessment, beginning with regional scale first-order susceptibility and hazard assessment and modeling that provide a first indication of possible unstable slopes or dangerous lakes and related cascading processes. Detailed field investigations and scenario-based hazard mapping can then be targeted to high-priority areas. In view of the rapidly changing mountain environment, leading beyond historical precedence, there is a clear need for future-oriented scenarios to be integrated into the hazard assessment that consider, for example, the threat from new lakes that are projected to emerge in a deglaciating landscape. In particular, low-probability events with extreme magnitudes are a challenge for authorities to plan for, but such events can be appropriately considered as a worst-case scenario in a comprehensive, forward-looking, multiscenario hazard assessment.

Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe1 and elsewhere2,3 has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers4 and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27 years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al.1, using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics5,6 or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future7. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.

<p>The non-perennial streams and rivers are predominant in the Mediterranean region and play an important ecological role in the ecosystem diversity in this region. This class of streams is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects that are expected to amplify further under most climatic projections. Understanding the potential response of the hydrologic regime attributes to climatic stress helps in planning better conservation and management strategies. Bouregreg watershed (BW) in Morocco, is a strategic watershed for the region with a developed non-perennial stream network, and with typical assets and challenges of most Mediterranean watersheds. In this study, a hybrid modeling approach, based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program, was used to simulate the response of BW's stream network to climate change during the period: 2035-2050. Downscaled daily climate data from the global circulation model CNRM-CM5 were used to force the hybrid modeling framework over the study area. Results showed that, under the changing climate, the magnitude of the alteration will be different across the stream network; however, almost the entire flow regime attributes will be affected. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the average number of zero-flow days will rise up from 3 to 17.5 days per year in some streams, the timing of the maximum flow was calculated to occur earlier by 17 days than in baseline, and the timing of the minimal flow should occur later by 170 days in some streams. The used modeling approach in this study contributed in identifying the most vulnerable streams in the BW to climate change for potential prioritization in conservation plans.</p>

A widespread risk in high mountains is related to the accumulation of loose sediments on steep slopes, which represent potential sources of different types of geomorphic processes including debris flows. This paper combines data on 50 yr of permafrost creep at the Ritigraben rock glacier (Valais, Swiss Alps) with magnitude–frequency (M–F) relationships of debris flows recorded in the Ritigraben torrent originating at the rock-glacier front. Debris production and volumetric changes at the rock-glacier front are compared with debris-flow activity recorded on the cone and potential couplings and feedbacks between debris sources, channel processes and debris sinks. The dataset existing for the Ritigraben rock glacier and its debris-flow system is unique and allows prime insights into controls and dynamics of permafrost processes and related debris-flow activity in a constantly changing and warming high-altitude environment. Acceleration in rock-glacier movement rates is observed in the (1950s and) 1960s, followed by a decrease in flow rates by the 1970s, before movements increase again after the early 1990s. At a decadal scale, measured changes in rock-glacier movements at Ritigraben are in concert with changes in atmospheric temperatures in the Alps. Geodetic data indicates displacement rates in the frontal part of the rock glacier of up to 0.6–0.9 m yr−1 since the beginning of systematic measurements in 1995. While the Ritigraben rock glacier has always formed a sediment reservoir for the associated debris-flow system, annual horizontal displacement rates of the rock-glacier body have remained quite small and are in the order of decimeters under current climatic conditions. Sediment delivery from the rock-glacier front alone could not therefore be sufficient to support the 16 debris flows reconstructed on the cone since 1958. On the contrary, debris accumulated at the foot of the rock glacier, landslide and rockfall activity as well as the partial collapse of oversteepened channel walls have to be seen as important sediment sources of debris flows at Ritigraben and would represent 65–90% of the material arriving on the Ritigraben cone. There does not seem to exist a direct coupling between displacement rates of and sediment delivery by the rock-glacier body and the frequency of small- and medium-magnitude debris flows. In contrast, a direct link between source and sink processes clearly exists in the case of active-layer failures. In this case, failure processes at the rock-glacier snout and debris-flow events in the channel occur simultaneously and are both triggered by the rainfall event.

AbstractSpecies living in high mountain areas are currently threatened by climate change and human land use changes. High‐elevation birds frequently inhabit island‐like suitable patches around mountain peaks, and in such conditions the capability to exchange individuals among patches is crucial to maintain gene flow. However, we lack information regarding the dispersal ability of most of these species and the possible influence of landscape features on dispersal. In this study, we used population genomics and landscape resistance modelling to investigate dispersal in a high‐elevation specialist migratory bird, the water pipit Anthus spinoletta. We aimed to assess the levels of gene flow in this species within a wide area of the European Alps, and to assess the effects of environmental characteristics on gene flow, by testing the isolation by distance (IBD) hypothesis against the isolation by resistance (IBR) hypothesis. We found clear support for IBR, indicating that water pipits preferentially disperse across suitable breeding habitat (i.e., high‐elevation grassland). IBR was stronger in the part of the study area with less extended suitable habitat. Landscape resistance was slightly better described by habitat suitability models than landscape connectivity models. Despite the observed IBR, gene flow within the study area was high, probably also because of the still wide and relatively continuous breeding range. The forecasted reduction of range of this species may lead to stronger effects of IBR on gene flow. Other high‐elevation specialist birds may show similar IBR patterns, but with possibly stronger effects on gene flow because of their more reduced and patchy habitats.