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AbstractSpecies extinction risk is accelerating due to anthropogenic climate change, making it urgent to protect vulnerable species through legal frameworks in order to facilitate conservation actions that help mitigate risk. Here, we discuss fundamental concepts for assessing climate change risks to species using the example of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), currently being considered for protection under the US Endangered Species Act (ESA). This species forms colonies on Antarctic sea ice, which is projected to significantly decline due to ongoing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin colonies under different GHG emission scenarios using a climate‐dependent meta‐population model including the effects of extreme climate events based on the observational satellite record of colonies. Assessments for listing species under the ESA require information about how species resiliency, redundancy and representation (3Rs) will be affected by threats within the foreseeable future. Our results show that if sea ice declines at the rate projected by climate models under current energy system trends and policies, the 3Rs would be dramatically reduced and almost all colonies would become quasi‐extinct by 2100. We conclude that the species should be listed as threatened under the ESA.

AbstractIn the North Atlantic, euphausiids (krill) form a major link between primary production and predators including commercially exploited fish. This basin is warming very rapidly, with species expected to shift northwards following their thermal tolerances. Here we show, however, that there has been a 50% decline in surface krill abundance over the last 60 years that occurred in situ, with no associated range shift. While we relate these changes to the warming climate, our study is the first to document an in situ squeeze on living space within this system. The warmer isotherms are shifting measurably northwards but cooler isotherms have remained relatively static, stalled by the subpolar fronts in the NW Atlantic. Consequently the two temperatures defining the core of krill distribution (7–13 °C) were 8° of latitude apart 60 years ago but are presently only 4° apart. Over the 60 year period the core latitudinal distribution of euphausiids has remained relatively stable so a ‘habitat squeeze’, with loss of 4° of latitude in living space, could explain the decline in krill. This highlights that, as the temperature warms, not all species can track isotherms and shift northward at the same rate with both losers and winners emerging under the ‘Atlantification’ of the sub-Arctic.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

SummaryTo gain a better understanding of the interactions among bacteria, viruses and flagellates in coastal marine ecosystems, we investigated the effect of viral lysis and protistan bacterivory on bacterial abundance, production and diversity [determined by 16S rRNA gene polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE)] in three coastal marine sites with different nutrient supplies in Hong Kong. Six experiments were set up using filtration and dilution methods to develop virus, flagellate and virus+flagellate treatments for natural bacterial populations. All three predation treatments had significant repressing effects on bacterial abundance. Bacterial production was significantly repressed by flagellates and both predators (flagellates and viruses). Bacterial apparent species richness (indicated as the number of DGGE bands) was always significantly higher in the presence of viruses, flagellates and both predators than in the predator‐free control. Cluster analysis of the DGGE patterns showed that the effects of viruses and flagellates on bacterial community structure were relatively stochastic while the co‐effects of predators caused consistent trends (DGGE always showed the most similar patterns when compared with those of in situ environments) and substantially increased the apparent richness. Overall, we found strong evidence that viral lysis and protist bacterivory act additively to reduce bacterial production and to sustain diversity. This first systematic attempt to study the interactive effects of viruses and flagellates on the diversity and production of bacterial communities in coastal waters suggests that a tight control of bacterioplankton dominants results in relatively stable bacterioplankton communities.

Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are immediately threatened by the impacts of climate change. Here we report on the condition of coral reefs over 83 km of coastline at the island of Upolu, Samoa in the remote South West Pacific in 2016 during the Tara Pacific Expedition. Despite the distance to large urban centers, coral cover was extremely low (<1%) at approximately half of the sites and below 10% at 78% of sites. Two reef fish species, Acanthurus triostegus and Zanclus cornutus, were 10% smaller at Upolu than at neighboring islands. Importantly, coral cover was higher within marine protected areas, indicating that local management action remains a useful tool to support the resilience of local reef ecosystems to anthropogenic impacts. This study may be interpreted as cautionary sign for reef ecosystem health in remote locations on this planet, reinforcing the need to immediately reduce anthropogenic impacts on a global scale.

AbstractOcean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.