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Natural ecosystems are threatened by climate change, fragmentation, and non-native species. Dispersal-limitation potentially compounds impacts of these factors on plant diversity, especially in isolated vegetation patches. Changes in climate can impact the phenology of native species in distinct ways from non-natives, potentially resulting in cascading impacts on native communities. Few empirical studies have examined the combined effects of climate change and dispersal limitation on community diversity or phenology. Using a five-year dispersal-restriction experiment in an invaded semi-arid annual plant system in Western Australia, we investigated the interactive effects of dispersal-restriction and inter-annual rainfall variation on community composition, species dominance and seed production timing. We found inter-annual rainfall variation to be the principal driver of community dynamics. Drought years had long-term, stable effects on community composition, with evidence of shifts from native toward non-native dominance. Surprisingly, community composition remained largely unchanged under dispersal restriction. A subtle dispersal rescue effect was evident for a dominant native annual forb and a dominant annual non-native grass but only in average rainfall years. The timing of seed production was primarily driven by annual rainfall with native and non-native grasses having opposite responses. There was no evidence that inter-annual variation in seeding timing affected community diversity over time. Our study demonstrates that dispersal is not a major factor in driving community diversity in this invaded, semi-arid system. Results do suggest, however, that increases in drought frequency likely benefit non-native species over natives in the long term. Climate Change Ecology, 2 ISSN:2666-9005

Fire hazard during ship transportation of certain modern solid fuels is identified. A particular mechanism which may lead to catastrophic ship fire is discussed. A mathematical model predicting time to such fully developed fire (flashover time) I s proposed. An analytical solution is obtained for the developed model. An important part of this solution is a closed form analytical description of the smoke filling dynamics in a closed compartment. It is demonstrated that flashover time depends on a number of parameters. The relative importance of these parameters is discussed. Particular significance is attributed to fuel soot propensity (fuel soot yield) which is an intrinsic fuel property. This parameter controls the intensity of radiative heat exchange in the compartment, and its influence on flashover time is of paramount importance. It is suggested that fuels are ranked with respect to this parameter in order to describe their relative fire hazards. This ranking should be implemented into the regulatory framework governing fuel transportation by ships.

Sediment cores from three lakes (Moss, Sombre and Heywood) in the maritime Antarctic (Signy Island, South Orkney Islands) have been successfully dated radiometrically by210Pb and137Cs. The core inventories of both fallout radionuclides are an order of magnitude higher than that which can be supported by the direct atmospheric flux at this latitude. The elevated values may be explained by fallout onto the catchment during the winter being delivered directly to the lakes during the annual thaw. Two of the lakes (Sombre and Heywood) show marked increases in sediment accumulation afterc. 1950. This appears to be associated with a documented rise in temperature in the South Orkney Islands, which has caused extensive deglaciation at Signy Island.

Abstract This study sheds new light on the variability of wind power across the Australian NEM (National Electricity Market) and in doing so gives an insight on the potential network configuration for a high RE (Renewable Electricity) future. We present idealised cost-minimised simulations for the NEM utilising onshore wind, large-scale solar, pumped hydro and OCGT (open cycle gas turbines) technologies. A model using gridded meteorological data from the regional ACCESS-R (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator) simulates wind and solar technology output along with generation from OCGT to meet demand in the NEM for the period 2010–2011. A cost for connecting each location to the nearest major load centre is introduced and a base scenario created from an initial connection cost of $1 M/km. A sensitivity study reveals that a cost of $8 M/km results in the contraction of all renewable resources to four major wind installations. Compared to the base scenario the four major wind locations share much of the variability in renewable energy output, demonstrating that the NEM region has four distinct wind regimes. Separated by 1,400 km these four wind installations provide an optimisation-based decorrelation length for the NEM. This information is particularly useful for long-term planners of large-scale energy infrastructure.

Sewage sludge handling is becoming a concern in Europe due to its increasing amount and the presence of contaminants, such as heavy metals and pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs). Currently, over 70% of sludge in Europe is treated thermally by incineration or used as fertilizer in agriculture. New thermochemical methods are under development and are expected to be implemented in the near future. This paper considers the life cycle environmental impacts of the following five alternatives for sludge handling, taking into account the presence of heavy metals and PPCPs: i) agricultural application of anaerobically digested sludge; ii) agricultural application of composted sludge; iii) incineration; iv) pyrolysis; and v) wet air oxidation. The results suggest that anaerobic digestion with recovery of nutrients and electricity has the lowest environmental impacts in 11 out of 18 categories considered. For the mean to maximum resource recovery, composting is the worst alternative, followed by pyrolysis with lower recovery rates. Agricultural application of anaerobically digested sludge has the highest freshwater ecotoxicity due to heavy metals, unless their concentration is in the lowest range, as found in some European sewage sludge applied on land. Therefore, stricter control of heavy metals in the sludge is needed for this option to limit freshwater ecotoxicity to the levels comparable with the thermal processes. The results also indicate that PPCPs have a negligible contribution to freshwater ecotoxicity when compared to heavy metals in the anaerobically digested sludge. Since thermal processes are currently drawing attention due to their potential benefits, the findings of this work suggest that their adoption is environmentally beneficial only if high resource recovery rates can be achieved.

The Late Permian mass extinction was not only the most catastrophic known loss of biodiversity, but was followed by unusually prolonged recovery through the Early Triassic. Opinion has been divided on whether delayed recovery was a legacy of especially profound ecological disruption, or due to additional environmental perturbations. New records from the Sydney Basin in southeastern Australia now reveal five successive Late Permian and Early Triassic spikes of unusually high atmospheric CO2 and profound chemical weathering. These successive atmospheric CO2 greenhouse crises coincided with unusually warm and wet paleoclimates for a paleolatitude of 61°S. Successive transient greenhouse crises punctuated long-term, cool, dry, and low-CO2 conditions, and may account for the persistence of low diversity and small size in Early Triassic plants and animals.

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO 2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.