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While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

AbstractOcean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.

Abstract. Phytoplankton identification and abundance data are now commonly feeding plankton distribution databases worldwide. This study is a first attempt to compile the largest possible body of data available from different databases as well as from individual published or unpublished datasets regarding diatom distribution in the world ocean. The data obtained originate from time series studies as well as spatial studies. This effort is supported by the Marine Ecosystem Model Inter-Comparison Project (MAREMIP), which aims at building consistent datasets for the main Plankton Functional Types (PFT) in order to help validate biogeochemical ocean models by using carbon (C) biomass derived from abundance data. In this study we collected over 293 000 individual geo-referenced data points with diatom abundances from bottle and net sampling. Sampling site distribution was not homogeneous, with 58% of data in the Atlantic, 20% in the Arctic, 12% in the Pacific, 8% in the Indian and 1% in the Southern Ocean. A total of 136 different genera and 607 different species were identified after spell checking and name correction. Only a small fraction of these data were also documented for biovolumes and an even smaller fraction was converted to C biomass. As it is virtually impossible to reconstruct everyone's method for biovolume calculation, which is usually not indicated in the datasets, we decided to undertake the effort to document, for every distinct species, the minimum and maximum cell dimensions, and to convert all the available abundance data into biovolumes and C biomass using a single standardized method. Statistical correction of the database was also adopted to exclude potential outliers and suspicious data points. The final database contains 90 648 data points with converted C biomass. Diatom C biomass calculated from cell sizes spans over eight orders of magnitude. The mean diatom biomass for individual locations, dates and depths is 141.19 μg C l−1, while the median value is 11.16 μg C l−1. Regarding biomass distribution, 19% of data are in the range 0–1 μg C l−1, 29% in the range 1–10 μg C l−1, 31% in the range 10–100 μg C l−1, 18% in the range 100–1000 μg C l−1, and only 3% >1000 μg C l−1. Interestingly, less than 50 species contributed to >90% of global biomass, among which centric species were dominant. Thus, placing significant efforts on cell size measurements, process studies and C quota calculations on these species should considerably improve biomass estimates in the upcoming years. A first-order estimate of the diatom biomass for the global ocean ranges from 449 to 558 Tg C, which converts to 5 to 6 Tmol Si and to an average Si biomass turnover rate of 0.11 to 0.20 d−1. Link to the dataset: preliminary link http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.777384.

AbstractMigrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater (‘parr’) stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water (‘smolt’) is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr‐smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within‐ and among‐river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post‐smolts. Using generalized additive mixed‐effects modelling, we analysed spatio‐temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea‐surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.