• Energy Research
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This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

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Abstract The study presents recent developments in the Turkish power market and introduces an Analytic Hierarchy Process model to evaluate and compare the relative overall attractiveness of power plant options for Turkey. The developed model incorporates technical characteristics, resource availability, socio-economic, environmental, cost, political, legal and organisational aspects, for evaluating and prioritising power plant types (biomass, coal, geothermal, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, petroleum, solar and wind). The study incorporates perspectives of different experts that represent various stakeholders of the Turkish power sector. The study reveals that supply reliability, investment costs and contribution to national economy are perceived as most important factors, whereas waste disposal and decommissioning costs are perceived as least important factors. Considering the overall weights, the most attractive power plant types for the Turkish power market are coal, hydro and natural gas power plants. The study indicates that Turkey should drastically decrease the installed capacity share of traditionally dominant power plants (to 58% from 89% in 2016) and fossil fuel power plants (to 40% from 56% in 2016), and increase the share of renewable power plants (to 52% from 44% in 2016), indigenous resource based power plants (to 67% from 56% in 2016) and nuclear power plants.

Price floors in greenhouse gas emissions trading schemes can guarantee minimum abatement efforts if prices are lower than expected, and they can help manage cost uncertainty, possibly as complements to price ceilings. Provisions for price floors are found in several recent legislative proposals for emissions trading. Implementation however has potential pitfalls. Possible mechanisms are government commitments to buy back permits, a reserve price at auction, or an extra fee or tax on acquittal of emissions permits. Our analysis of these alternatives shows that the fee approach has budgetary advantages and is more compatible with international permit trading than the alternatives. It can also be used to implement more general hybrid approaches to emissions pricing.

Current energy distribution networks are often not equipped for facilitating expected sustainable transitions. Major concerns for future electricity networks are the possibility of peak load increases and the expected growth of decentralized energy generation. In this article, we focus on peak load increases; the effects of possible future developments on peak loads are studied, together with the consequences for the network. The city of Eindhoven (the Netherlands) is used as reference city, for which a scenario is developed in which the assumed future developments adversely influence the maximum peak loads on the network. In this scenario, the total electricity peak load in Eindhoven is expected to increase from 198 MVA in 2009 to 591–633 MVA in 2040. The necessary investments for facilitating the expected increased peak loads are estimated at 305–375 million Euros. Based upon these projections, it is advocated that – contrary to current Dutch policy – choices regarding sustainable transitions should be made from the viewpoint of integral energy systems, evaluating economic implications of changes to generation, grid development, and consumption. Recently applied and finished policies on energy demand reduction showed to be effective; however, additional and connecting policies on energy generation and distribution should be considered on short term.

Electric vehicles represent an innovation with the potential to lower greenhouse gas emissions and help mitigate the causes of climate change. However, externalities including the appropriability of knowledge and pollution abatement result in societal/economic benefits that are not incorporated in electric vehicle prices. In order to address resulting market failures, governments have employed a number of policies. We seek to determine the relationship of one such policy instrument (consumer financial incentives) to electric vehicle adoption. Based on existing literature, we identified several additional socio-economic factors that are expected to be influential in determining electric vehicle adoption rates. Using multiple linear regression analysis, we examined the relationship between those variables and 30 national electric vehicle market shares for the year 2012. The model found financial incentives, charging infrastructure, and local presence of production facilities to be significant and positively correlated to a country's electric vehicle market share. Results suggest that of those factors, charging infrastructure was most strongly related to electric vehicle adoption. However, descriptive analysis suggests that neither financial incentives nor charging infrastructure ensure high electric vehicle adoption rates.

Road transport produces significant amounts of CO2 by using crude oil as primary energy source. A reduction of CO2 emissions can be achieved by implementing alternative fuel chains. This article studies CO2 emissions and energy efficiencies by means of a well to wheel analysis of alternative automotive fuel chains, using natural gas (NG) as an alternative primary energy source to replace crude oil. The results indicate that NG-based hydrogen applied in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) lead to largest CO2 emission reductions (up to 40% compared to current practice). However, large implementation barriers for this option are foreseen, both technically and in terms of network change. Two different transition strategies are discussed to gradually make the transition to these preferred fuel chains. Important transition technologies that are the backbone of these routes are traditional engine technology fuelled by compressed NG and a FCV fuelled by gasoline. The first is preferred in terms of carbon emissions. The results furthermore indicate that an innovation in the conventional chain, the diesel hybrid vehicle, is more efficient than many NG-based chains. This option scores well in terms of carbon emissions and implementation barriers and is a very strong option for the future.

Abstract The housing stock has a considerable share of 40% in energy consumption and 36% of CO 2 emissions in the EU. In accordance to energy efficiency and emissions targets set by EU, The Netherlands has aimed to renovate 300,000 homes each year, leading to 50% reduction in CO 2 emissions, by 2050. Many factors including low renovation rates create uncertainties in achieving these targets. The current study aims for understanding the barriers and drivers towards energy efficiency renovations (EERs) amongst Dutch homeowners, and to aid in gaining a better insight into the role of public authorities in promoting EERs. First, the extrinsic drivers, including policies and other initiatives in the EER process are explained. Second, the intrinsic drivers and intrinsic/extrinsic barriers are explored. Regression analyses are performed on the national Dutch survey data for renovators and potential renovators. Our main findings include: (a) desire to enhance the quality of their life, rather than the financial benefits, etc. is identified as the main driver; (b) the main barriers are the costs of EERs, complexities in the process, information barriers, and finding reliable experts and information; (c) For improvement in meeting renovation targets, the current Dutch policies need to consider all the decision criteria by homeowners, such as: Reducing the complexities; Time needed to obtain loans and subsidies; and Facilitating access to information.