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Abstract This paper contributes to the existing literature as well as policy debates by examining energy intensity and its determinants in China's regional economies. The analysis is based on a comprehensive database of China's regional energy balance constructed for this project. Through its focus on regional China, this study extends the existing literature, which mainly covers nationwide studies. It is found in this paper that energy intensity declined substantially in China. The main contributing factor is the improvement in energy efficiency. Changes in the economic structure have so far affected energy intensity modestly. Thus there is considerable scope to reduce energy intensity through the structural transformation of the Chinese economy in the future.

Abstract This paper provides the first estimates of China's global developmental finance institutions in general and China's policy bank lending to foreign governments for energy in particular. According to the China Global Energy Finance database, between 2000 and 2017, China Development Bank (CDB) and China Export-Import Bank (CHEXIM) provided $225.75 billion in overseas energy development finance. We find that: China's ‘policy banks’ and funds have doubled the availability of global development finance –and hold more assets than the major Western-backed MDBs operating in developing countries. With the onset of a new family of funds and multilateral development banks co-financed by China, China is poised to be the largest development lender in the world as Western-backed MDBs appear stagnated in their ability to increase their capital bases. China's global energy portfolio is heavily exposed to country, macroeconomic, climate, and social risks, however. To mitigate such risks and meet the broader sustainable development challenge for the 21st Century, China's development finance will need to shift the composition of its global energy lending in a significant manner.

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

Abstract Using country level panel data from East Asia over the period 1998–2011, this paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation-induced intermediate goods trade on the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution. The paper focuses on the interaction effect between energy consumption and trade in intermediate goods on carbon emission. The empirical results presented suggest that international trade in intermediate goods decreases the positive impact on carbon emission of energy consumption. When compared with the trade in final goods, intermediate goods trade contributes to a greater decrease in carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption. These results confirm that the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution in East Asia is significantly affected by international production fragmentation-induced trade in intermediate goods. The results presented in this paper have some important policy implications.

In this paper we investigate the prospects for the large-scale use of low-emission energy technologies in Africa. Many African countries have recently experienced substantial economic growth and aim at fulfilling much of the energy needs associated with continuing along paths of economic expansion by exploiting their large domestic potentials of renewable forms of energy. Important benefits of the abundant renewable energy resources in Africa are that they allow for stimulating economic development, increasing energy access and alleviating poverty, while simultaneously avoiding emissions of greenhouse gases. In this study we analyse what the likely energy demand in Africa could be until 2050, and inspect multiple scenarios for the concomitant levels of greenhouse gas emissions and emission intensities. We use the TIAM-ECN model for our study, which enawbbles detailed energy systems research through a technology-rich cost-minimisation procedure. The results from our analysis fully support an Africa-led effort to substantially enhance the use of the continent's renewable energy potential. But they suggest that the current aim of achieving 300 GW of additional renewable electricity generation capacity by 2030 is perhaps unrealistic, even given high GDP and population growth: we find figures that are close to half this level. On the other hand, we find evidence for leap-frogging opportunities, by which renewable energy options rather than fossil fuels could constitute the cost-optimal solution to fulfil most of Africa's growing energy requirements. An important benefit of leap-frogging is that it avoids an ultimately expensive fossil fuels lock-in that would fix the carbon footprint of the continent until at least the middle of the century.

In 2014, the Portuguese government appointed a Commission for Environmental Tax Reform that formulated a carbon-tax proposal designed to achieve three dividends: to help Portugal meet the European Union's target for emissions reductions by 2030, to boost long-term employment and GDP above their pre-carbon-tax levels, and to strengthen public finances by lowering public indebtedness. A key feature of this proposal was a judicious set of mixed strategies to recycle all carbon-tax revenues back into the economy. In this note, we show how the carbon tax that the Portuguese Parliament eventually approved deviated from such guidelines, and ultimately failed to achieve the triple dividend. We argue that authorities need to quickly amend the existing legislation to avoid this misguided attempt turning into a missed opportunity to improve environmental, macroeconomic, and fiscal outcomes.

This paper investigates energy transition, energy poverty and energy inequality in Vietnam employing a longitudinal dataset of a nationally representative household survey. We use the data on residential energy expenditure of more than 9,000 households over the period 2004–2016. We find a transition from traditional energy to modern energy but this transition varies across regions, between ethnic and welfare groups and between rural and urban population. The poor and ethnic minority households still rely heavily on traditional energy sources such as coal and biomass to meet their energy demands. Electricity poverty has decreased but energy-cost poverty has increased. In addition, energy inequality tends to decrease at a more significant rate than income and consumption inequalities. We propose a national program for energy poverty alleviation be established to devise policies to lower households’ energy costs. Further assistance to the poor and ethnic minority households is also recommended so that they can afford a higher level of electricity consumption.