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Abstract This study investigates the macroeconomic effects of adverse oil price shocks on a small oil-exporting economy — the Azerbaijan economy. We estimate a recursive (near) VAR model by using monthly macroeconomic data from 2006 to 2018. The results indicate the Azerbaijan economy is adversely influenced by an oil price decline. Specifically, we find that a negative oil price shock deteriorates trade balance, causes a currency depreciation, increases inflation and falls economic activity. Furthermore, our findings imply that the oil price-led devaluation shapes the inflationary and recessionary consequences of this shock.

AbstractRemittances to the Philippines constitute a prominent part of its economy. However, remittances' effects on its environment have not been researched. In this regard, this research examines the direct and indirect impacts of remittance inflows on the Philippines' environmental sustainability for the 1977–2016 period by proposing a multivariate model, and by utilising the augmented ARDL and VECM methods to estimate this model. Our findings indicate that remittance inflows threaten environmental sustainability in the long‐run both directly and indirectly through boosting income and energy (oil) consumption. The results additionally imply that income and energy consumption also increase the ecological footprint of the Philippines in the long‐run. However, economic globalisation's long‐run impact is insignificant, yet its short‐run impact is significantly negative on the country's level of environmental degradation. Additionally, the findings reveal that the feedback hypothesis is valid between income and energy consumption in the long‐run, but the neutrality hypothesis is valid in the short‐run. This research's findings reveal that remittance inflows' impact on the environment is significant, and can occur through direct and various indirect channels, therefore, these inflows should be an integral part of sustainability policies in the Philippines, as ignoring them could cause further environmental decline.

We researched China's climate and sustainable development goal with relevant and susceptible instruments capable of inducing and mitigating carbon emissions. Amidst the contributor to the global carbon emissions, China is caught in between mitigating its carbon emission and aiming towards placing its national contribution of emissions to the acceptable levels of 1.5 °C and below 2 °C. Following the intricacies surrounding China's sustainable development as it contains its economic and environmental performance, we adopt China's data of 1980 and 2018 with different scientific approaches (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), dynamic ordinary least square test, and bootstrap Granger causality) with different instruments (such as economic growth, financial development, renewable energy, and innovation policies) to research China's sustainable development. For clear exposition and insight into our findings with policies attached, we draw a conclusion from the outcomes of the mentioned approaches. From NARDL and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), we find that economic growth through economic activities is statistically significant in determining the trend (increase) of carbon emissions in China in both periods (short run and long run). However, other selected instruments (financial, renewable, and innovation policies) tend towards controlling and moderating the carbon emissions in China. Thus, China has good prospects to mitigate its carbon emissions if considered tailoring its policies towards favorable instruments. From bootstrap Granger causality, we find similar inferential results that support previous findings thereby confirming the positive implication of the selected instruments to China's sustainable development. Hence, the nexus that is established among the selected instruments clearly show the importance of technological innovation and renewable energy in mitigating carbon emissions.

Sustainable development is one of the issues that many developed and developing countries focus on in the world. The sustainability of human and natural resources is of great importance for securing the world and humanity's common future. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the socio-economic structure of Erzurum with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and digitized strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis considering sustainable development goals (SDGs). The items included in the Agenda 21 report of the United Nations and 17 SDGs determined by the United Nations were taken into consideration in this endeavour. In line with expert opinions, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats created by the sustainable development goals for Erzurum province were analysed statistically with the AHP. Priority and weighted values of each sub-criterion were calculated. According to this analysis, "the richness of natural, cultural and historical resources for tourism potential" ranks first among the strengths of the province regarding sustainable development goals. Weaknesses include "insufficient investment and entrepreneurial culture". However, "priority region status for development" criterion stands out as the most important opportunity. Threats include "loss of labour force due to migration from agricultural areas" criterion. After the statistical analysis, the quantitative results of made for the best realization of sustainable development for the area were assessed to specify new goals and strategies. Suggestions were offered to define opportunities and strengths, threats and weaknesses with new-build strategies and to make the plans accordingly.

In Turkey, the population living around forest areas is significantly affected by forestry activities. There are 21 thousand forest villages and 7 million forest villagers living in these forest villages within the 22.9 million ha forest area. In other words, one out of every three people living in rural areas is a forest villager. Daily life activities of forest villagers living together with forest areas can cause pressure on forests. GDoFV by various development projects to reduce the impacts of pressures on forest areas of forest villagers have been implemented. This improvement loans are two groups, including for economic and social purposes. GDoFV only makes cost-benefit analysis for social projects. Does not apply any other economic analysis. Water Heating with Solar Energy Systems (Solar Power Plant) project is a project implemented by GDoFV social purposes. The aim of the SPP projects is to reduce the firewood consumption of the forest villagers. This case study aimed to evaluate the economic analysis of SSP projects implemented to reduce the forest villager's consumption of firewood. In the forest villages of the Western Mediterranean Region, 100 forest villages were sampled from 152 forest villages and 629 forest villagers where SPP application was made.

The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship between energy use, economic growth, and environmental pollution in Turkey for the period from 1968 to 2016 by using ARDL bounds test approach. Test findings show that an increase in economic growth and trade openness cause environmental degradation in all models. Although the energy consumption coefficient is positive in all models, it is statistically significant only in the model where the ecological footprint indicator is the dependent variable. Thus, while determining a positive relationship between environmental pollution and economic growth in Turkey, also it can be said that the energy consumption increases ecological footprint. The findings indicate that there is a need to consider not only pollution emissions but also the ecological footprint for environmental degradation. These results raise a number of policy recommendations for Turkey. The existence of an inverted-U shaped relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth actually demonstrate the successful long run sustainable growth in Turkey.

Abstract The transportation sector is one of the main contributors to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As the efforts towards emission mitigation increase, the expectation from the sector arises equally. In this analysis, the transportation sector of Turkey is studied to shed light on the future based on historical realizations. In this respect, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to assess and reveal the influential factors on CO2 emissions in the sector between 2000 and 2017. The emission intensity of the sector and fuel switching shows promising trends from 2000 through 2010, whereas growing preference for SUVs challenges emission reductions between 2010 and 2017. The results indicate that i) The transportation sector CO2 emissions are mainly driven upwards by economic growth, followed by population and emission intensity effects from 2000 to 2017 ii) The overall impact of transportation intensity shows significant reduction potential iii) Fuel switching incentives and fleet efficiency have a positive effect on emission mitigation from 2000 through 2010. However, this gain is reduced due to the rising popularity of SUVs in the rest of the analysis period. In this respect, CO2 emission mitigation in the transportation sector necessitates 1) careful planning of demand management for freight transportation including master designs production/manufacturing sites, material flows, and demand points coupled with economic activities 2) passenger transportation measures to reduce passenger car travel including zoning for public transit corridors, improved public transportation system 3) well-structured incentives on energy-efficient cars and clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles to convince individuals. Analysis can be generalized on a global scale due to the similar dynamics inherent in the sector.

The study presents a new methodology to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change vulnerability at a regional scale adopting a new conceptual model of vulnerability as a function of climate change impacts, ecological stability, and socioeconomic stability. Spatiotemporal trends of equally weighted proxy variables for the three vulnerability components were generated to develop a composite climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) for a Mediterranean region of Turkey combining Landsat time series data, digital elevation model (DEM)-derived data, ordinary kriging, and geographical information system. Climate change impact was based on spatiotemporal trends of August land surface temperature (LST) between 1987 and 2016. Ecological stability was based on DEM, slope, aspect, and spatiotemporal trends of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), while socioeconomic stability was quantified as a function of spatiotemporal trends of land cover, population density, per capita gross domestic product, and illiteracy. The zones ranked on the five classes of no-to-extreme vulnerability were identified where highly and moderately vulnerable lands covered 0.02% (12 km2) and 11.8% (6374 km2) of the study region, respectively, mostly occurring in the interior central part. The adoption of this composite CCVI approach is expected to lead to spatiotemporally dynamic policy recommendations towards sustainability and tailor preventive and mitigative measures to locally specific characteristics of coupled ecological-socioeconomic systems.

Abstract The financial system needs to develop in order for natural resource exports to have a positive effect on economic growth. Yet, an advanced financial system is crucial for transferring the revenues from oil exports to productive investments. If the level of development of the financial system remains under a certain threshold, the effect of natural resource exports on economic growth is too low. In this vein, the determination of the level and the deepness of financial development that has a positive impact on the growth of natural resource exports should be clarified. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between the impact of natural resource exports on economic growth and the level of financial deepening by using the data of the selected Next-11 countries for the period of 1996–2016. Nonlinear panel data methodology is used in the study. Based on the empirical results, for the first regime, where the rate of financial deepening is under 45%, the increase in oil exports does not have a statistically significant effect on ecenomic growth. For the second regime, where financial deepening is over 45%, one unit increase in oil exports causes a 7% increase in economic growth.