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There has been a lengthy debate on whether the abundance of adult reef fishes depends on prerecruitment or postrecruitment processes; however, we still do not have the ability to predict the magnitude of local fish recruitment. Here we show that the success of the leopard grouper (Mycteroperca rosacea) recruitment in the Gulf of California, Mexico, is determined by the availability of nursery habitat, which in turn is strongly correlated to climate conditions. Observational and experimental studies showed that leopard grouper larvae recruit preferentially on shallow rocky bottoms with brown algal (Sargassum spp.) beds, and that abundance of recruits is determined by the availability of Sargassum. The biomass of Sargassum decreases linearly with an increase in the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index (MEI; an index positively correlated with water temperature and negatively correlated with nutrient availability). We analyzed the relationship between the interannual variation of MEI and the recruitment of the leopard grouper using field estimates of abundance of juvenile groupers. Our results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between recruitment and the oceanographic climate, in that the density of recruits decreases exponentially with increasing MEI. The predictability of leopard grouper recruitment has important implications for fisheries management, since it could allow adaptive management without expensive stock assessment programs.

In this study, we assessed the effect of environmental salinity and pH as independent factors on larval survival of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABFT –Thunnus thynnus) together with their whole-body Na+/K+-ATPase and v-type H+-ATPase activities. Fertilized eggs of ABFT were obtained from a spontaneous spawning of broodstock in the farming facilities at El Gorguel (Cartagena, SE Spain) and were transferred to facilities of the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) in Mazarrón (SE Spain). In a first experiment, eggs (200 fertilized eggs L−1 per treatment, in 3 replicates) were exposed to different salinities treatments and constant pH 8.0 (control) until hatch was completed (50 h post-fertilization, hpf, at 23 °C): 27, 30, 33, 36, 37, 38 (control), 39, 40, 43, 46 and 49 ppt. In a second experiment eggs (200 fertilized eggs L−1, in 3 replicates) were exposed to seawater salinity (SW: 38 ppt) and four reduced pH treatments until hatch was completed (50 hpf at 23 °C): 8.0 (control), 7.7, 7.5 and 7.3. An inverse “U-shaped” relationship was observed between environmental salinity and number of hatched larvae. An opposite pattern was observed for both Na+/K+-ATPase and H+-ATPase activities in hatched larvae, increasing both activities in groups exposed to extreme salinities. Thus, larval survival was higher at intermediate salinities and lower at the extreme salinities tested. These results suggest higher survival rates with lower active pumps activities. No significant differences in larval survival were observed with pH treatment, but lower H+-ATPase activity was detected at control environmental pH (pH 8.0). Survival results are discussed in terms of osmoregulatory cost adapting to a salinity and pH predicted for the near future scenarios. 2,041

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Global warming is emerging as one of the most critical threats to terrestrial and marine species worldwide. This study assessed the effects of simulated warming events in culture on two seagrass species, Posidonia oceanica and Cymodocea nodosa, which play a key role in coastal ecosystems of the Mediterranean Sea. Changes in fatty acids as key metabolic indicators were assessed in specimens from two geographical populations of each species adapted to different in situ temperature regimes. Total fatty acid (TFA) content and composition were compared in C. nodosa and P. oceanica from natural populations and following exposure to heat stress in culture. After heat exposure, individuals of C. nodosa and P. oceanica adapted to colder temperatures in situ accumulated significantly more TFA than controls. For both species, the proportion of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) decreased, and the percentage of saturated fatty acids (SFA) increased significantly after the heat treatment. These results highlight that populations of both species living at warmest temperatures in situ were more thermo-tolerant and exhibited a greater capacity to cope with heat stress by readjusting their lipid composition faster. Finally, exposure of seagrasses to warmer conditions may induce a decrease in PUFA/SFA ratio which could negatively affect their nutritional value and generate important consequences in the healthy state of next trophic levels.

The protection of fish nurseries has been recognized as a useful tool to efficiently manage fisheries given that protected areas enhance the recruitment of target species. To identify and locate potential nursery areas, a solid understanding of species-environment relationships and their spatio-temporal dynamics is needed. Within this context, in this study we assess where European hake (Merluccius merluccius) recruits persistently aggregate in the northern continental shelf of the Iberian Peninsula. Hake recruit data collected during scientific trawl surveys between 2005 and 2016 were analyzed using Bayesian hurdle hierarchical spatio-temporal models, considering the environmental variables bathymetry, sea bottom temperature and salinity. Additionally, three different spatio-temporal structures (i.e., persistent, progressive, or opportunistic) were compared to assess the temporal persistence of nurseries over time. Among all the environmental variables analyzed, bathymetry was the most important. The preferential habitat of recruits was found to be within a bathymetric range of 120–200 m. Our findings clearly show that there is a temporally persistent main nursery located along the continental shelf of the Artabrian gulf (off La Coruña) in addition to several areas with high aggregations of hake recruits but with strong inter-annual variability. We argue that the analytical framework applied in this study allowed us to identify European hake nurseries in the northern continental shelf of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as their spatio-temporal fluctuations throughout the study period (2005–2016), and to assess which environmental factors, among bathymetry, sea bottom temperature and salinity, influence the occurrence and abundance of recruits in the study area. Results of our models also produce a new abundance index that could be useful for improving traditional stock assessment models.