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  • 15. Life on land
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Amadou Thierno Gaye; Xavier Capet; Juliette Mignot; Adama Sylla; +1 Authors

    Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hyper Article en Lig...arrow_drop_down
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climate Dynamics
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Climate Dynamics
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Springer TDM
      Data sources: Crossref
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    Authors: Alaa Jasim Dakheel Almaliki; Mohammed J. K. Bashir; Juan F. Llamas Borrajo;

    Hydraulic fracturing drilling technology can cause a high risk of surface spill accidents and thus water contamination. Climate change together with the high water demand and rapid increase in industrial and agricultural activities are valued reasons why we should all care about the availability of water resources and protect them from contamination. Hence, the purpose of this study is to estimate the risk associated with a site contaminated with benzene from oil spillage and its potential impact on groundwater. This study focused on investigating the impact of soil variability and water table depth on groundwater contamination. Temperature-dependent parameters, such as soil water content and the diffusion of pollutants, were considered as key input factors for the HYDRUS 1D numerical model to simulate benzene migration through three types of soil (loamy, sandy clay loam, and silt loam) and evaluate its concentration in the water aquifer. The results indicated that an anticipated increase in earth’s average surface temperature by 4 °C due to climate change could lead to a rise in the level of groundwater pollution in the study area by 0.017 mg/L in loamy soil, 0.00046 mg/L in sandy clay loam soil, and 0.00023 mg/L in silt loam soil. It was found that climate change can reduce the amount of benzene absorbed from 10 to 0.07% in loamy soil, 14 to 0.07% in sandy clay loam soil, and 60 to 53% in silt loam soil. The results showed that the soil properties and solute characteristics that depend on the temperature have a major and important role in determining the level of groundwater pollutants.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Waterarrow_drop_down
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    Water
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Water
    Article . 2022
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Waterarrow_drop_down
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      Water
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Water
      Article . 2022
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Sriyana, Ignatius (author); de Gijt, J.G. (author); Parahyangsari, Sri Kumala (author); Niyomukiza, John Bosco (author);

    In the current study, we examine the Indonesian government's watershed management program, which was established in 2001. In 2005, the Coordination Team for Rescue of Water Resources (CTRWR) was established to execute the program on a national level. However, at the time, field implementation was a sectoral interest due to the lack of program integration. To this end, the Indonesian government promoted integrated watershed management in 2009, which since then has been implemented by all stakeholders (in Top–Down management form), with application limited to preparing and planning documents. This is mainly driven by the stakeholders’ lack of understanding with regard to watershed systems as integrated management units. Field implementation results have not yet been realized, including the promotion of community-based watershed management (through Bottom–Up management). The purpose of our research was to determine the index numbers by measuring the level of cooperation between watershed management workers based on the Village Watershed Model (VWM) specifically surface water which includes six variables: planning, participation, institutional, fund sharing, gender, and management systems. The method used was an ordinal measure with the Likert scale. Our data showed successful watershed management, in which five of the six VWM variables—planning, participation, institutional, fund sharing, and management systems—were in the “good” category with indices ranging from 73.08 to 78.27. The gender variable index (69.12) was in the “medium” category.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ International Soil a...arrow_drop_down
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    International Soil and Water Conservation Research
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY NC ND
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ International Soil a...arrow_drop_down
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      International Soil and Water Conservation Research
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Lijuan Miao; Daniel Müller; Xuefeng Cui; Meihong Ma;

    Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ PLoS ONEarrow_drop_down
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    PLoS ONE
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2018
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    Article . 2017
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    EconStor
    Article . 2017
    License: CC BY
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      EconStor
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    Authors: A. Park Williams; A. Park Williams; Chris Funk; Chris Funk; +7 Authors

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

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    Climate Dynamics
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  • Authors: Sharma, Bharat R.; Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Shah, Tushaar; Bharati, Luna; +9 Authors

    The basins of the Indus and Ganges rivers cover 2.20 million km2 and are inhabited by more than a billion people. The region is under extreme pressures of population and poverty, unregulated utilization of the resources and low levels of productivity. The needs are: (1) development policies that are regionally differentiated to ensure resource sustainability and high productivity; (2) immediate development and implementation of policies for sound groundwater management and energy use; (3) improvement of the fragile food security and to broaden its base; and (4) policy changes to address land fragmentation and improved infrastructure. Meeting these needs will help to improve productivity, reduce rural poverty and improve overall human development.

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    Authors: Chuntian Su; Jingli Shao; Yufeng Wang; Qiulan Zhang; +1 Authors

    In the karst area of southern China, karst water is important for supporting the sustainable production and home living for the local residents. Consequently, it is of significance to fully understand the water cycle, so as to make full use of water resources. In karst areas, epikarst and conduits are developed, participating in the hydrological cycle actively. For conventional lumped hydrologic models, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological cycle accurately. These models neglect to consider the variation of underlying surface and weather change. Meanwhile, for the original distributed hydrological model, the existence of epikarst and underground conduits as well as inadequate data information also make it difficult to achieve accurate simulation. To this end, the framework combining the advantages of lumped model–reservoir model and distributed hydrologic model–Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established to simulate the water cycle efficiently in a karst area. Xianghualing karst watershed in southern China was selected as the study area and the improved SWAT model was used to simulate the water cycle. Results show that the indicators of ENS and R2 in the calibration and verification periods are both above 0.8, which is evidently improved in comparison with the original model. The improved SWAT model is verified to have better efficiency in describing the hydrological cycle in a typical karst area.

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    Sustainability
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    Authors: Felipe Jeferson de Medeiros; Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira; Alvaro Avila-Diaz;

    Extreme events usually cause numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable countries, such as Brazil. Understanding whether the evolution of Earth System Models (ESMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) improves the representation of extreme events and investigating their future change is fundamental because device policies of adaptation and mitigation to climate change generally consider the results of the most recent generation of ESMs. This study analyzes the performance of a subset of 40 ESMs from CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 in simulating eight extreme precipitation climate indices over Brazil during 1981–2000 and also estimates their projected changes for the middle (2046–2065) and far future (2081–2 100) under the worst-case scenario for each CMIP generation. Results reveal that CDD are the most challenging precipitation index to be simulated, while the best ones were PRCPTOT and R20mm. The model performance shows that CMIP3 has the best skill for Northeast Brazil, CMIP5 for Center-West, and CMIP6 for North, Southeast and South regions. Thus, at least for Brazil, the evolution of the ESMs from CMIP did not reflect a substantial improvement in the representation of precipitation climate extremes over all Brazilian regions. In addition, all the models across CMIP generations have difficulty in simulating the observed trends. This indicate that improvements are still needed in CMIP models. Despite the relative low performance in the historical climate, the climate projections indicate a consensus signal among most of precipitation climate extremes and CMIP generations, which increase its reliability. Overall, the extreme precipitation events are projected to be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting in all Brazilian regions, with the more pronounce changes expected in heavy rainfall and severe droughts in the central northern portion of Brazil and in the southern sector.

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    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Weather and Climate Extremes
    Article . 2022
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    Authors: Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J.; Fricker, Thomas E.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.;

    Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve.

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    Climatic Change
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    Climatic Change
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climatic Change
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      Climatic Change
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Behling, R.; Roessner, S.; Förster, S.; Saemian, P.; +3 Authors

    AbstractIran has experienced a drastic increase in water scarcity in the last decades. The main driver has been the substantial unsustainable water consumption of the agricultural sector. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of Iran’s hydrometeorological water availability, land cover, and vegetation growth and evaluates their interrelations with a special focus on agricultural vegetation developments. It analyzes globally available reanalysis climate data and satellite time series data and products, allowing a country-wide investigation of recent 20+ years at detailed spatial and temporal scales. The results reveal a wide-spread agricultural expansion (27,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ) and a significant cultivation intensification (48,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ). At the same time, we observe a substantial decline in total water storage that is not represented by a decrease of meteorological water input, confirming an unsustainable use of groundwater mainly for agricultural irrigation. As consequence of water scarcity, we identify agricultural areas with a loss or reduction of vegetation growth (10,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ), especially in irrigated agricultural areas under (hyper-)arid conditions. In Iran’s natural biomes, the results show declining trends in vegetation growth and land cover degradation from sparse vegetation to barren land in 40,000 km$$^2$$ 2 , mainly along the western plains and foothills of the Zagros Mountains, and at the same time wide-spread greening trends, particularly in regions of higher altitudes. Overall, the findings provide detailed insights in vegetation-related causes and consequences of Iran’s anthropogenic drought and can support sustainable management plans for Iran or other semi-arid regions worldwide, often facing similar conditions.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ KITopen (Karlsruhe I...arrow_drop_down
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    Scientific Reports
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
    Article . 2022
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      Scientific Reports
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
      Article . 2022
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Amadou Thierno Gaye; Xavier Capet; Juliette Mignot; Adama Sylla; +1 Authors

    Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hyper Article en Lig...arrow_drop_down
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    Climate Dynamics
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    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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      image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Alaa Jasim Dakheel Almaliki; Mohammed J. K. Bashir; Juan F. Llamas Borrajo;

    Hydraulic fracturing drilling technology can cause a high risk of surface spill accidents and thus water contamination. Climate change together with the high water demand and rapid increase in industrial and agricultural activities are valued reasons why we should all care about the availability of water resources and protect them from contamination. Hence, the purpose of this study is to estimate the risk associated with a site contaminated with benzene from oil spillage and its potential impact on groundwater. This study focused on investigating the impact of soil variability and water table depth on groundwater contamination. Temperature-dependent parameters, such as soil water content and the diffusion of pollutants, were considered as key input factors for the HYDRUS 1D numerical model to simulate benzene migration through three types of soil (loamy, sandy clay loam, and silt loam) and evaluate its concentration in the water aquifer. The results indicated that an anticipated increase in earth’s average surface temperature by 4 °C due to climate change could lead to a rise in the level of groundwater pollution in the study area by 0.017 mg/L in loamy soil, 0.00046 mg/L in sandy clay loam soil, and 0.00023 mg/L in silt loam soil. It was found that climate change can reduce the amount of benzene absorbed from 10 to 0.07% in loamy soil, 14 to 0.07% in sandy clay loam soil, and 60 to 53% in silt loam soil. The results showed that the soil properties and solute characteristics that depend on the temperature have a major and important role in determining the level of groundwater pollutants.

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    Water
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Water
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Sriyana, Ignatius (author); de Gijt, J.G. (author); Parahyangsari, Sri Kumala (author); Niyomukiza, John Bosco (author);

    In the current study, we examine the Indonesian government's watershed management program, which was established in 2001. In 2005, the Coordination Team for Rescue of Water Resources (CTRWR) was established to execute the program on a national level. However, at the time, field implementation was a sectoral interest due to the lack of program integration. To this end, the Indonesian government promoted integrated watershed management in 2009, which since then has been implemented by all stakeholders (in Top–Down management form), with application limited to preparing and planning documents. This is mainly driven by the stakeholders’ lack of understanding with regard to watershed systems as integrated management units. Field implementation results have not yet been realized, including the promotion of community-based watershed management (through Bottom–Up management). The purpose of our research was to determine the index numbers by measuring the level of cooperation between watershed management workers based on the Village Watershed Model (VWM) specifically surface water which includes six variables: planning, participation, institutional, fund sharing, gender, and management systems. The method used was an ordinal measure with the Likert scale. Our data showed successful watershed management, in which five of the six VWM variables—planning, participation, institutional, fund sharing, and management systems—were in the “good” category with indices ranging from 73.08 to 78.27. The gender variable index (69.12) was in the “medium” category.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ International Soil a...arrow_drop_down
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    International Soil and Water Conservation Research
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      International Soil and Water Conservation Research
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    Authors: Lijuan Miao; Daniel Müller; Xuefeng Cui; Meihong Ma;

    Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

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    EconStor
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      EconStor
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    Authors: A. Park Williams; A. Park Williams; Chris Funk; Chris Funk; +7 Authors

    We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s–1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

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    Climate Dynamics
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  • Authors: Sharma, Bharat R.; Amarasinghe, Upali A.; Shah, Tushaar; Bharati, Luna; +9 Authors

    The basins of the Indus and Ganges rivers cover 2.20 million km2 and are inhabited by more than a billion people. The region is under extreme pressures of population and poverty, unregulated utilization of the resources and low levels of productivity. The needs are: (1) development policies that are regionally differentiated to ensure resource sustainability and high productivity; (2) immediate development and implementation of policies for sound groundwater management and energy use; (3) improvement of the fragile food security and to broaden its base; and (4) policy changes to address land fragmentation and improved infrastructure. Meeting these needs will help to improve productivity, reduce rural poverty and improve overall human development.

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    Authors: Chuntian Su; Jingli Shao; Yufeng Wang; Qiulan Zhang; +1 Authors

    In the karst area of southern China, karst water is important for supporting the sustainable production and home living for the local residents. Consequently, it is of significance to fully understand the water cycle, so as to make full use of water resources. In karst areas, epikarst and conduits are developed, participating in the hydrological cycle actively. For conventional lumped hydrologic models, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological cycle accurately. These models neglect to consider the variation of underlying surface and weather change. Meanwhile, for the original distributed hydrological model, the existence of epikarst and underground conduits as well as inadequate data information also make it difficult to achieve accurate simulation. To this end, the framework combining the advantages of lumped model–reservoir model and distributed hydrologic model–Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established to simulate the water cycle efficiently in a karst area. Xianghualing karst watershed in southern China was selected as the study area and the improved SWAT model was used to simulate the water cycle. Results show that the indicators of ENS and R2 in the calibration and verification periods are both above 0.8, which is evidently improved in comparison with the original model. The improved SWAT model is verified to have better efficiency in describing the hydrological cycle in a typical karst area.

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    Authors: Felipe Jeferson de Medeiros; Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira; Alvaro Avila-Diaz;

    Extreme events usually cause numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable countries, such as Brazil. Understanding whether the evolution of Earth System Models (ESMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) improves the representation of extreme events and investigating their future change is fundamental because device policies of adaptation and mitigation to climate change generally consider the results of the most recent generation of ESMs. This study analyzes the performance of a subset of 40 ESMs from CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 in simulating eight extreme precipitation climate indices over Brazil during 1981–2000 and also estimates their projected changes for the middle (2046–2065) and far future (2081–2 100) under the worst-case scenario for each CMIP generation. Results reveal that CDD are the most challenging precipitation index to be simulated, while the best ones were PRCPTOT and R20mm. The model performance shows that CMIP3 has the best skill for Northeast Brazil, CMIP5 for Center-West, and CMIP6 for North, Southeast and South regions. Thus, at least for Brazil, the evolution of the ESMs from CMIP did not reflect a substantial improvement in the representation of precipitation climate extremes over all Brazilian regions. In addition, all the models across CMIP generations have difficulty in simulating the observed trends. This indicate that improvements are still needed in CMIP models. Despite the relative low performance in the historical climate, the climate projections indicate a consensus signal among most of precipitation climate extremes and CMIP generations, which increase its reliability. Overall, the extreme precipitation events are projected to be more severe, frequent, and long-lasting in all Brazilian regions, with the more pronounce changes expected in heavy rainfall and severe droughts in the central northern portion of Brazil and in the southern sector.

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    Weather and Climate Extremes
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    Weather and Climate Extremes
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    Authors: Watson, James; Challinor, Andrew J.; Fricker, Thomas E.; Ferro, Christopher A. T.;

    Understanding the relationship between climate and crop productivity is a key component of projections of future food production, and hence assessments of food security. Climate models and crop yield datasets have errors, but the effects of these errors on regional scale crop models is not well categorized and understood. In this study we compare the effect of synthetic errors in temperature and precipitation observations on the hindcast skill of a process-based crop model and a statistical crop model. We find that errors in temperature data have a significantly stronger influence on both models than errors in precipitation. We also identify key differences in the responses of these models to different types of input data error. Statistical and process-based model responses differ depending on whether synthetic errors are overestimates or underestimates. We also investigate the impact of crop yield calibration data on model skill for both models, using datasets of yield at three different spatial scales. Whilst important for both models, the statistical model is more strongly influenced by crop yield scale than the process-based crop model. However, our results question the value of high resolution yield data for improving the skill of crop models; we find a focus on accuracy to be more likely to be valuable. For both crop models, and for all three spatial scales of yield calibration data, we found that model skill is greatest where growing area is above 10-15 %. Thus information on area harvested would appear to be a priority for data collection efforts. These results are important for three reasons. First, understanding how different crop models rely on different characteristics of temperature, precipitation and crop yield data allows us to match the model type to the available data. Second, we can prioritize where improvements in climate and crop yield data should be directed. Third, as better climate and crop yield data becomes available, we can predict how crop model skill should improve.

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    Climatic Change
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    Authors: Behling, R.; Roessner, S.; Förster, S.; Saemian, P.; +3 Authors

    AbstractIran has experienced a drastic increase in water scarcity in the last decades. The main driver has been the substantial unsustainable water consumption of the agricultural sector. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of Iran’s hydrometeorological water availability, land cover, and vegetation growth and evaluates their interrelations with a special focus on agricultural vegetation developments. It analyzes globally available reanalysis climate data and satellite time series data and products, allowing a country-wide investigation of recent 20+ years at detailed spatial and temporal scales. The results reveal a wide-spread agricultural expansion (27,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ) and a significant cultivation intensification (48,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ). At the same time, we observe a substantial decline in total water storage that is not represented by a decrease of meteorological water input, confirming an unsustainable use of groundwater mainly for agricultural irrigation. As consequence of water scarcity, we identify agricultural areas with a loss or reduction of vegetation growth (10,000 km$$^2$$ 2 ), especially in irrigated agricultural areas under (hyper-)arid conditions. In Iran’s natural biomes, the results show declining trends in vegetation growth and land cover degradation from sparse vegetation to barren land in 40,000 km$$^2$$ 2 , mainly along the western plains and foothills of the Zagros Mountains, and at the same time wide-spread greening trends, particularly in regions of higher altitudes. Overall, the findings provide detailed insights in vegetation-related causes and consequences of Iran’s anthropogenic drought and can support sustainable management plans for Iran or other semi-arid regions worldwide, often facing similar conditions.

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    Scientific Reports
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5445/ir/...
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